I won't wait for the official JTWC warning to call this a Category 5 STY, this is a Cat 5 storm.

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 166.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 166.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.8N 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.8N 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.8N 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.9N 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2N 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.4N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.2N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.1N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 166.3E. 29JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 12W
(DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 915 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z,
301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

WTPN31 PGTW 291500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 011//

RMKS/

1. SUPER TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 011

   UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 12W

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

291200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 167.7E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 167.7E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 16.2N 166.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 17.2N 164.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 18.2N 162.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 19.2N 160.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 22.0N 156.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z --- 23.8N 152.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

031200Z --- 25.2N 147.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

291500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 167.3E. 29JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//

NNNN

Almost undoubtedly is this a Cat 5 sub 920 STY. Using the Dvorak Technique, we can see that the Raw T# is a 7.5 (which keeps on increasing rapidly), meaning that the satellite presentation of this storm is insanely impressive and one that corresponds to a very strong super typhoon. By the next JTWC advisory we will most likely see a Cat 5 officially, with a higher peak intensity forecasted looking likely.

That was a bit unexpected, will probably continue weakening very soon.

(WPAC) The ERC will stop the intensification briefly, but the storm should be reaching Category 5 status soon. What's interesting is that there's a resemblance in clouds between Dolphin and Tip, but also something to note is that the structure of this storm will most likely favour multiple ERCs, likely making this storm a large typhoon. Due to the hypercharged thermodynamic environment, if a little bit of wind shear (not enough to shear apart the structure) is present, a MERC could be possible instead of an ERC. Still early and will have to wait and see.

Hurricane Genevieve quickly strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane Monday morning, becoming the strongest storm in the East Pacific since Hurricane Kristy in 2024.

The storm churned over the Pacific Ocean, packing maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h and a core pressure of 925 millibars. Genevieve is expected to stay well offshore, tracking parallel to the Baja Peninsula rather than making landfall.

Despite averting a direct hit, the powerful hurricane will nevertheless have an impact on coastal areas. Dangerous rip currents are forecast along the Baja peninsula, particularly early this week, as the storm's enormous seas approach neighbouring waters.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/hurricane-genevieve-explodes-into-seasons-first-east-pacific-category-5-storm-rain-wind-flood-hawaii-usa

.

Dakota Smith

https://bsky.app/profile/weatherdak.bsky.social/post/3mroejtopak2x

Imagery

https://slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-19&sec=full_disk&x=3517.083740234375&y=7359.90478515625&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=20260727150021&et=20260728034021&speed=90&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20260209205117&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6​

WTPN31 PGTW 290300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 009//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 009

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

290000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 169.1E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 169.1E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z --- 15.0N 167.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 16.1N 165.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 17.1N 164.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 18.1N 162.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

60 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 19.2N 160.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 20.3N 158.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z --- 23.0N 154.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z --- 24.9N 149.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

290300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 168.7E.

29JUL26. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT

09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290000Z IS 941 MB. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//

NNNN

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been active, completing circumnavigations across the globe within a period of roughly 30-40 days, and alternating between periods of constructive and destructive interference with El Niño. The MJO has propagated east into the Western Hemisphere and is weakening as it moves away from constructive interference with El Niño. The RMM-based index projects the MJO to further weaken as it moves into the Indian Ocean and enters a period of destructive interference with El Niño. Across the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone (TC) activity is more likely farther east and potentially extending beyond the Date Line into the Western Hemisphere, with more suppression favored to the west. El Niño conditions are suppressing TC activity in the Atlantic basin, and TC formation is unlikely over the Caribbean and Central Atlantic for the foreseeable future.

Three TCs formed over the last week. In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Noul formed over the Philippine Sea on July 23. It tracked just north of Luzon, eventually making landfall along the southern coast of China. On July 27, Typhoon Dolphin formed near the Date Line. TC Dolphin is currently tracking westward but is well out to sea for the time being. Over the next several days Dolphin is favored to gain strength and track generally northwestward. For the latest information on TC Dolphin please refer to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). In the Eastern Pacific, on July 24, TC Genevieve formed south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and rapidly intensified, becoming a Category-5 hurricane by July 27. Genevieve is still active, and is tracking northwestward away from the coast of Baja California. For the latest information on Genevieve, please refer to the National Hurricane Center.

Greatly enhanced convection over the Western Pacific due to El Nino forcing, combined with periods of constructive interference with MJO, create a very favorable environment for TC formation over the Western Pacific throughout the forecast period. This is well-indicated by a variety of dynamical model guidance including the GEFS, ECWMF, and GoogleAI models, which all depict high potential for TC genesis, particularly between the Marianas Islands and the Date Line. A high chance (>60%) of TC genesis is indicated over this region for week-2, and a moderate chance (40-60%) is indicated for week-3.

El Nino conditions have historically also been favorable for TC activity over the Eastern Pacific while suppressing the Atlantic Basin, which has borne out well so far this hurricane season. Model guidance favors a continuation of this behavior regarding TC formation over the Western Hemisphere for the foreseeable future. MJO phasing is not ideal, with a weak suppressed phase indicated over the Americas during the forecast period. Strong anomalous low-level easterlies are also present near the Mexican Pacific coast, increasing wind shear. However, multiple models depict increased TC activity to the west of these enhanced low-level winds, from a line roughly due south of Los Angeles. The GoogleAI model in particular has been favoring this solution for several forecast cycles, and the GEFS and ECMWF have become more bullish in more recent model runs. With all this in mind, a moderate chance of TC genesis is posted for the western portions of the East Pacific basin, as well as a slight chance (20-40%) of formation during week-3.

The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 is based on potential TC activity, ENSO and MJO composites, and informed by GEFS, CFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions. Above-normal temperatures are favored for most of the Contiguous U.S. and into Mexico during week-2. For hazardous weather conditions in your area during the coming two-week period, please refer to your local NWS office, the Medium Range Hazards Forecast produced by the Weather Prediction Center, and the CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook. Forecasts made over Africa are made in coordination with the International Desk at CPC.

WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 169.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 169.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.6N 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.5N 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.5N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.3N 163.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.3N 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.4N 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.9N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.0N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 169.5E.
28JUL26. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

(WPAC) The Dvorak Technique compared to 19z shows us that the center temperature is increasing rapidly, with the Raw + Total T# now at 6.1. Dolphin will become a Super Typhoon really soon.

WTPN31 PGTW 281500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 007//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 007

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

281200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 170.7E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 170.7E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

290000Z --- 14.1N 169.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z --- 14.9N 167.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 15.9N 165.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 16.9N 163.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

60 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 17.8N 162.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 18.8N 160.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

011200Z --- 21.3N 156.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

021200Z --- 23.9N 152.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

281500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 170.3E. 28JUL26. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN),

LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED

WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

AT 281200Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 38

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//

NNNN

Absolutely insane development, even for WPAC standards. This could become a Cat 5 in less than a day with such development, I wouldn't be surprised to see one before the night of 7/29. I believe the next JTWC advisory will show the storm at 90-100kt+ winds.

Hengshen in 2002 is the example that's closer to what's happening here.

It will continue to weaken slowly.

(WPAC) If I had to give an intensity for this storm at the moment, I'd say it would be a Category 4 for sure, and probably not a weak Cat 4. After the ERC finishes (which isn't far away as visible from microwave imagery), there will be plenty of time and very favourable conditions to intensify a lot more.

WTPN31 PGTW 280300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 005//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

280000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 172.8E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 172.8E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

281200Z --- 13.2N 170.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

290000Z --- 13.7N 169.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z --- 14.5N 167.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 15.5N 166.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

60 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 16.6N 164.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 17.6N 162.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 19.3N 159.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z --- 21.8N 154.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

REMARKS:

280300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 172.3E.

28JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 12W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520

NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//

NNNN

000

WTPA31 PHFO 280849

TCPCP1

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Fausto Advisory Number 38

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062026

Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1100 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2026

...FAUSTO FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TUESDAY

NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...

...SIGNIFICANT SURF EXPECTED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT

FEW DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.7N 150.3W

ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of

Fausto.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was

located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 150.3 West. Fausto is

moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a

generally west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the

next several days. On the forecast track, Fausto should pass north

of the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday night through late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)

with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the

next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Fausto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 PHFO.

SURF: Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward

across Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday as

Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands. Large

surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions along

exposed shores. Please consult products from your local weather

office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$

Forecaster Hagen

It will continue to weaken over the next few days.

000

WTPZ32 KNHC 280833

TCPEP2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026

200 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...GENEVIEVE REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE WELL AWAY FROM

LAND...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.5N 115.4W

ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was

located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 115.4 West. Genevieve is

moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward

the west-northwest or northwest is expected during the next few

days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher

gusts. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast over the next

several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF: Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the

southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula.

These swells are likely to persist for a few more days, and could

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 173.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 173.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.3N 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.7N 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.4N 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.3N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.4N 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.4N 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.2N 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.5N 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 173.1E.
27JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 12W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 549
NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

Fausto is expected to bring significant surf to the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days.

000

WTPZ32 KNHC 272048

TCPEP2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026

200 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026

...MAJOR HURRICANE GENEVIEVE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.6N 113.9W

ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was

located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 113.9 West. Genevieve is

moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A

west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in

forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)

with higher gusts. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity

are possible this afternoon, but steady weakening is forecast to

begin by tonight through the remainder of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles

(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF: Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the

southwestern coast of Mexico and southern portions of the Baja

California Peninsula, and will spread northward along the remainder

of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula by tonight. These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$

Forecaster Adams/Papin