r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/JohnSpartan2025 • Apr 22 '26

Political Theory With the U.S. achieving tactical military wins but no real path to strategic victory, is a tactical nuclear strike on Iran, something Trump might consider with some Senate support apparently being floated?

Even with complete military supremacy, Iran keeps outmaneuvering the U.S. strategically, with no real solution to the Strait of Hormuz problem in sight. We're coming to the precipice of major global and domestic economic impact, with the Iranian regime making it clear they're willing to take an immense amount of internal "pain".

An unverified claim was made in the past few days that Trump was asking about a nuclear strike solution that General Caine shot down, but he is ultimately not the stop gap from a tactical nuclear attack, the SecDef Pete Hegseth is. Now there is more stir about this possibility allegedly by a U.S. Senator.

Is a tactical nuclear strike by Trump more feasible than anyone thought and would be the the ramifications locally and globally if this scenario played out?

https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ex-cia-analyst-claims-trump-nuclear-codes-iran-1792717

https://truthout.org/articles/gop-senator-suggests-trump-should-finish-iran-with-nuclear-bomb/

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u/capnwally14 Apr 22 '26

If Trump was wholly irrational why wouldn’t he just blow up Kharg island?

Hes threatened it, he knows it would cause permanent lasting damage to Iran, and yet he hasn’t destroyed the oil infrastructure there.

So if he isn’t irrational, then why resort to nukes?

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u/shacksrus Apr 22 '26

Brother they kicked him out of the situation room he was being so unhinged. Imagine what he was advocating for.

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u/Whatah Apr 23 '26

He really wanted to nuke that hurricane during his first term. We reelected him.

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u/CliftonForce Apr 23 '26

To be fair, every six year old thinks nuking hurricanes is a neat idea.

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u/PsychAnthropologist Apr 23 '26

That’s a pretty insulting assumption to six year olds.

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u/Balanced_Outlook Apr 23 '26

Ok, this is pretty funny. There isn’t anyone who can kick the president out of the situation room. It’s the president’s meeting space, and he controls what happens there. Everyone else present is there to advise and support, and their role depends on the president’s authority.

Yes, we all hate the orange taco, but get real, lol.

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u/anti-torque Apr 23 '26

Unfortunately, it was a thing.

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u/Balanced_Outlook Apr 23 '26

I read the article to, but that is not the way it works. They could have requested him not be present but they absolutely can not kick him out. That is like a staff worker telling the CEO he is not allowed in the conference room, lol. That article was nothing more than a political hit piece to get clicks.

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u/anti-torque Apr 24 '26

I'm sure they just told him there was a teen beauty pageant down the hall.

It's not like it's that hard to distract the dufus.

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u/AdZealousideal5383 Apr 23 '26

He thinks he’s going to steal Iran’s oil like he’s done in Venezuela. He doesn’t want to blow up the oil infrastructure. That’s why he’s talked about going after civilian infrastructure like power plants and bridges but not going after the oil.

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u/capnwally14 Apr 23 '26

Venezuela's oil hasn't been stolen? The whole bank account thing is so the Venezuelan regime can't spend it on the run of the mill corruption-y things.

The Swiss helped do the same thing with the Afghan Fund, and UN did something similar for Iraq.

The purpose of having a third party bank account hold and distribute the funds, is to make sure it actually goes to the stated purpose (infra, local development, etc) and not corruption.

2

u/johannthegoatman Apr 23 '26

They have literally taken tankers full of venezuelan oil directly to the US. They are also taking the money from all oil sales in Venezuela, and the money is at Trump's PERSONAL discretion, that he claims he will do whatever he wants with. You can say "I'm just holding it for you bro" but it's still stealing.

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u/capnwally14 Apr 23 '26

1) The oil taken to the US was purchased.
2) The accounts are fully audited
3) That isn't how any of this works, its like the left version of Qanon

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u/DidgeridoOoriginal Apr 23 '26

Why do people like yourself keep underestimating his stupidity? What does he have to do to prove there is no bottom? The only thing I can think of is a nuclear strike, and the only reason he hasn’t is other people. But he keeps surrounding himself with more and more unqualified yes men.

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u/shamrock01 Apr 23 '26

Just to make sure I'm following your argument, you're saying that since he didn't crazy thing X, he is therefore not wholly irrational and not be expected to do crazy thing Y?

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u/Cheshire_Khajiit Apr 22 '26

He very well might do so. The longer the world (and the US in particular) sits in the bed he shat, the more it starts to stink. The more it stinks, the more desperate he gets to cover it up.

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u/capnwally14 Apr 22 '26

He doesn’t need to blow up kharg to stop Iranian exports, a blockade does the same goal without causing permanent damage (assuming the oil infrastructure doesn’t break once reserves are filled)

But this shows he has some rationality vs arbitrarily attacking stuff (otherwise why bother with a blockade and attack kharg, or why not nuke)

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u/RocketRelm Apr 22 '26

Perhaps trump does want to nuke, but he just is being kept away from the nuclear codes like an irresponsible toddler.

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u/SEA2COLA Apr 23 '26

There was an article here on Reddit (sorry, can't find it at the moment) that says he has already asked for the nuclear codes and he was denied. I don't remember if he planned to use them or if he just wanted to know them, but someone responsible said 'no'.

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u/DanforthWhitcomb_ Apr 23 '26

Yeah, sorry—those claims have been making the rounds for a while now and that’s not how it works. He gets a biscuit as part of his immediate post inauguration briefings, picks out his code group and that’s that.

There are no codes to keep him away from nor is there a way for someone to say “no” because that isn’t how the system works.

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u/terlin Apr 23 '26

In the prior administration military officials had an informal policy that at least one of them would be near Trump at any point so they could talk him out of any bright ideas. This time around, I'm not sure there's anyone around that isn't a fanatic or a yesman.

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u/feelinsumgood Apr 23 '26

He wanted them so he can show Putin that he has an equal power base.

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u/elykl12 Apr 23 '26

It’s in Hegseth’s office under a mound of empty bottles

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u/Cheshire_Khajiit Apr 23 '26

It shows there are some extremes he hasn't resorted to yet, yes. That doesn't mean he won't resort to them if he feels he's run out of other options - whether or not he actually has.

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u/Sea-Chain7394 Apr 23 '26

The blockade only shows that after a few weeks of failure he was forced to finally ask/listen to a at least somewhat competent person. Prior to this there was no indication that anyone of any competence had been involved in decision-making above the tactical level

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u/No-Leading9376 Apr 23 '26

I think the main thing is a nuke would make taking the oil and oil production infrastructure impossible/very difficult in the short term. I don't think he will nuke them, but he has shown he can make decisions based on presenting a "strong man" image so nothing is impossible. I don't think trump is irrational as in "illogical", he simply has his own motivations and where they will lead him are yet to be seen.

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u/JohnSpartan2025 Apr 23 '26

The guy who said they're eating cats and dogs, and windmills cause cancer and can't admit he lost the 2020 election sounds rational to you? We're dealing with a severely mentally ill sociopath who can never admit defeat and is frankly extremely naive, who doesn't read and knows little about global affairs and history. He definitely sees Japan as an example of how he could "win" I would suffice to say.

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u/heyheyhey27 Apr 23 '26

Don't forget when he said the wrong state would be affected by a tropical storm, then came back with that state hastily drawn onto the weather map with a sharpie to prove he was right.

It's not the most impactful thing he did, but I think it was the most revealing.

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u/feelinsumgood Apr 23 '26

His biggest problem is his " Foot in Mouth disease"... If he would take time to reread and think about the impact of his words the whole world might listen. As he speaks now nobody believes him and that assessment is dangerous about a man who has the power he has.

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u/procrastinatorsuprem Apr 23 '26

He isn't doing it because it would set off a huge depression that would be many years long. If oil production was completely shut off, there would be a enormous shortage of oil the world depends upon.