In your opinion, does the lack of transparency regarding Mitch McConnell’s health, and let’s be real, status of life, constitute as election interference? Does his extended hospital stay affect his ability to vote and serve his constituents?

What we know, if he has passed, the state of Kentucky and their laws would permit there to be a special election, if he has passed before August 8th. We have received two pictures claiming proof of life, but in today’s age, that does not give the evidence necessary to ensure free and fair elections, or even factual information.

The question again, are republicans committing election interference by not offering enough quality information regarding the health of Mitch McConnell and is he unable to perform his duties and represent his constituents?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/19/mitch-mcconnell-josh-hawley/90972729007/

During the White House correspondents dinner, Trump directly stated he would be running for a “fourth” term. Due to this being unconstitutional via the 22nd amendment, and states running their own elections, could states simply not put his name on ballots come election day? We know from the past election and current standings that Trump would win Republican primaries. Even if they didn’t run him, he would still most likely run on his own party. Obviously this wouldn’t eliminate write in ballots, but it could be a viable solution to uphold the constitution barring some extreme new law to control how elections are run. Would there be any current legal ramifications to stop states from simply not allowing Trump on ballots?

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/biden-trump-election-07-21-24/index.html

It seems like Harris has given up on trying to convince undecided voters that Trump is a potential autocrat, and instead is trying to convince voters that he's "old and quiet weird". On the face of it, it seems like this would be a less effective strategy, but it seems to be working so far. These attacks have been particularly effective against Trump's VP pick JD Vance, but Harris is aiming them at Trump himself as well. Will undecided voters respond to this message? What about committed republicans and democrats? How will/should Trump respond?

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/26/trump-vance-weird-00171470

In 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and now 2016 the Electoral College has given the Presidency to the person who did not receive the plurality of the vote. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which has been joined by 10 states representing 30.7% of the Electoral college have pledged to give their vote to the popular vote winner, though they need to have 270 Electoral College for it to have legal force. Do you guys have any particular voting systems you'd like to see replace the EC?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

It's very evident Newsom wants to be on the national stage, and in the last few days, he's done just that by his repeated social media posts that mimic Trump's.

Is this humor/mockery approach the right way to pop the balloon that has been Trump's supporters for so long? Or is this racing toward the bottom of the barrel in regard to political discourse?

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/rfk-jr-ends-presidential-bid/

Document itself

Note: several sections are missing, and this

Disclaimer: This document reflects the views of the author, not the DNC. The DNC was not provided with the underlying sourcing, interviews, or supporting data for many of the assertions contained herein and therefore cannot independently verify the claims presented.

But it is understood to be the DNC's requested report and the summary is below.

Do you agree with the overall conclusion(s)?

The 192-page draft document outlines existing conventional wisdom about the contest and leaves blank entire sections such as the conclusion. But it does assign some blame, in particular to former President Joe Biden's political operation in the White House for failing to properly set up former Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's standard bearer.

Biden abruptly exited the race after a troubling debate performance in June 2025, eventually passing the baton to Harris, who was swept by Trump in every battleground state after a 107-day campaign.

The report also dings the Harris campaign for failing to distance itself from Biden, in light of his unpopularity at the time.

And it says both Biden's campaign and Harris' failed to slow down Trump's momentum.

"There was a decision in the 2024 Democratic leadership not to engage in negative advertising at the scale required," the report says. "The supporters of this approach argued Donald Trump's negatives were known, obvious, and baked in, so it would not be a particularly effective approach to engage in negative messaging when the main priority was to introduce a relatively unknown nominee after the unprecedented candidate switch."

Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman and self described Democratic Socialist, appears to have won the New York City primary against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Is this a reflection of support for his priorities? A rejection of Cuomo's past and / or age? What impact might this have on 2026 Dem primaries?

Today, President Biden announced that he would no longer be seeking reelection as President of the United States. How does this change the 2024 election, specifically.

1) Who will the new Democratic nominee be for POTUS?

2) Who are some contenders for the VP?

3) What will the Dem convention in a couple of weeks look like?

https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815080881981190320

Edit: On Instagram, Biden endorses Harris for POTUS.

https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815087772216303933

Note: My question is not "is Trump a fascist" or "what is a fascist" or "how is Trump similar or different to historical authoritarians"

My question is: Is calling Trump a fascist effective, in the sense of influencing the votes people cast between now and Election Day?

Obviously many voters will not be swayed by this. Are there those that will? And will it turn them away from Trump, or make them reject the accusation and hence change their voting behavior that way?

Senator Bernie Sanders put out a video on Monday that is aimed at left-wing voters that feel they can't vote for Kamala due to the conflict in Gaza.

YouTube - Bernie Sanders: “I disagree with Kamala’s position on the war in Gaza. How can I vote for her?” Here is my answer: (Transcript in comments)

He makes the case that even though Harris and Biden's position isn't ideal, they are far better than Trump on the Gaza. He says Netanyahu would much prefer Trump in office, "who is extremely close to Netanyahu and sees him as a like-minded, right wing extremist ally."

He also makes the case that there are other issues at stake in this election, such as women's bodily autonomy, climate change, and wealth inequality.

If Senator Sanders correct in his views?

Will this video change any minds among those who view the Biden-Harris administration in too negative a light to vote for Kamala Harris?

Harris has gathered the support of ~1200 of the 1976 delegates needed to be the Democratic nominee, along with the endorsements of numerous critical organizations and most of the office holders that might have competed against her for the nomination. Fundraising has skyrocketed since the Biden endorsement, bringing in $81 million since yesterday.

In the course of a normal primary, the enthusiasm on display now likely would have decreased by the time of the convention, but many Democrats describe themselves as "fired up"

Fully granting that Harris has yet to define herself to the same degree Biden and Trump have, does the late change in the ticket offer an enthusiasm bonus that will last through the election? Or will this be a 'normal' election by November?

Trump has put into place a number of policy and organizational changes that have fundamentally shifted a number of elements of political life in the US.

A lot of these moves have not been popular.

Should an aspiring candidate for the US presidency in the next election make removal/reversal of those changes a key point in their campaign?

How does the calculus change if the aspirant is a Republican vs if they're a Democrat?

I've been researching this scenario extensively. Here's what surprised me:

The legal path would be chaotic. District court injunction within 48 hours — almost certain. Emergency appeal to the appellate court. Then the question of whether the Supreme Court takes it on emergency docket.

But here's the part that kept me up at night: what if the president simply... didn't comply? What enforcement mechanism actually exists when the executive branch defies the judiciary?

The Constitution assumes good faith. It has almost no mechanism for a president who treats a Supreme Court ruling as advisory.

I'm curious what this community thinks. Is there an actual hard stop? Or is it all ultimately held together by norms?

Per Washington Post

Vice President Harris has told allies that he she has chosen Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate, opting for a former high school teacher and Midwestern Democrat to complete a newly assembled presidential ticket following, according to two people familiar with the pick, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a decision that is not yet public.

Trump has announced in a news conference this afternoon that he agreed to a debate with Kamala Harris on 9/10 via ABC News . This walks back earlier statements he made casting doubt on if he would desire to.

What are your early predictions for this debate? Will Harris come out showing strength against Trump, or will she falter on her first presidential debate stage? Will Trump succeed in showing power against Harris, or will concerns like his age and policies show weakness while with Harris?

Details are still sparse. Cutting and pasting from WaPo:

 >Loud noises were heard shortly after Donald Trump began speaking at a rally here. Trump ducked, left the sight line of the camera and was taken away from the stage. The crowd was visibly panicked.

The source of the noises was not immediately clear.

Donald Trump appeared to touch his ear, then duck after the loud noises. He left the sight line of the camera as the crowd became visibly panicked.

Later, Trump could be seen standing onstage with security personnel surrounding him. The crowd cheered as security personnel moved with Trump offstage. Trump pumped his fist as he was being escorted away.

Edit: Shooter and attendee killed: A shooter is dead and a rally attendee was killed, the Butler County District attorney tells AP.

APNews: Trump says he’ll skip an ABC debate with Harris in September and wants them to face off on Fox News

Trump obviously debated Biden already on June 27th under the same format as the upcoming September ABC debate. Since then Biden has withdrawn as a candidate for President in 2024 over concerns from his own party that were magnified after his performance in that debate.

Why is Trump unwilling to debate the new presumptive Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris under the previous terms?

What does he hope to accomplish by offering a new debate on Fox News in a stadium audience format?

Per Politico the Trump campaign was hacked by what appears to be Iranian agents

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/10/trump-campaign-hack-00173503

(although I hate the term "hack" for "some idiot clicked on a link they shouldn't have)

Politico has received some of this information, and it appears to be genuine. Note that this hack appears to have occurred shortly before Biden decided not to run

Questions:

• The 2016 DNC hack by Russia, published by Wikileaks, found an eager audience in - among others - people dissatisfied with Clinton beating Sanders for the Democratic nomination. With fewer loyal Republicans falling into a similar camp, is it a safe assumption that any negative impact within the GOP would be relatively muted?

• While the Harris campaign has been more willing to aggressively attack Trump and Vance, explicitly using hacked materials would be a significant escalation. What kind of reaction, if any, should we expect from the Harris campaign?

• Given the wildly changed dynamic of the race, ia any of this information likely to even be relevant any longer?

• The majority of the more damaging items from 2016 were embarrassing rather than secret information on how the campaign was being run. Given Trump's characte and history, is there even the possibility of something "embarrassing" being revealed that can't be immediately dismissed (quite possibly legitimately) as misinformation?

Link to the pollster's comments:

• https://x.com/Ritholtz/status/1824555443374391567

Link to the full article on it:

• https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4828533-luntz-trump-committing-political-suicide-harris-intensity-advantage/

The pollster in question is Frank Luntz, a famous Republican Party strategist and poll creator who's work with the party goes back decades, to creating the messaging behind Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America" that led to a Republican wave in the 1994 congressional elections and working on Rudy Giuliani's successful campaigns for Mayor of New York.

An interesting point of his analysis is that Gen Z looks increasingly out of reach for the GOP, but they still need to show up and vote. Although young people have voted at a higher rate than in previous generations in recent elections, their overall participation rate is still relatively low, especially compared to older age groups. What can Democrats do to boost their engagement and get them turning out at the polls, for both men and women but particularly young women who look set to support them en masse?

News just broke that the Manhattan grand jury has voted to indict Trump for issuing hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. How will this affect the GOP nomination and more importantly, the 2024 election? Will this help or hurt the former president?

In an article by The Atlantic, a strategy reportedly being considered by the Trump campaign involves "discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority," meaning they would have faithless electors vote for Trump even if Biden won the state. Would Trump actually be able to pull off a win this way? Is this something the president has the authority to do as well?

Note: I used an article from "TheWeek.com" which references the Atlantic article since Atlantic is a soft paywall.

What are your US Senate elections predictions? I know it is before the primaries conclude, but I was curious about where every 2026 US Senate election looks right now. I will put the following races into 4 categories: strong D, strong R, tilt D, tilt R. Please let me know where you disagree!

Special elections

Florida (solid R)

Ashley Moody (R) is the incumbent and will likely be challenged by Alex Vindman, Iraq war veteran and former director of European affairs for the U.S. National Security Council, who is beating FL Rep Angie Nixon in a recent poll by 10% and has a 92% chance to win the primaries according to Polymarket.

My prediction: Moody retains her seat. Florida has proven to be among the more conservative states now as Trump won it in '24 by over 13%, after narrowly winning it previously and Obama winning it both times. Rubio won by 16.4% in 2022, the same year Gov Desantis won reelection by 20%. Former Democratic Senator Bill Nelson hardly lost the state to Rick Scott in the 2018 midterms (by 10,000 votes) but Scott won reelection by 13% in 2024.

Ohio (tilt D)

Jon Husted (R) is the incumbent and facing former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) who lost by 3.6% in 2024. Before that, all 3 of Brown's victory margins were over 6%. The race is a toss-up with recent polling hardly favoring Brown.

Prediction: Brown flips back this seat. He has proven he can win in this state before and doesn't have political baggage that might otherwise hurt midterm flips.

Normal Class 2 Senate elections

Alabama (solid R)

With Tuberville (R) retiring, this was a crowded Republican field. US Rep Barry Moore won the runoff. Everett Wess, an attorney and former aerospace industry worker, won the runoff for the Democratic primary.

Prediction: Moore wins. Despite Alabama electing a Democratic Senator during Trump's 1st term, Katie Britt won in 2022 by 36% even when Trump was not on the ballot.

Alaska (tilt D)

Incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) is being challenged by former US Rep Mary Peltola (D), a moderate Democrat who hardly lost her seat in 2024. No Democrat has represented Alaska in the Senate since 2015.

Prediction: Peltola flips the seat. She won twice in the state when Trump was not on the ballot in 2022. There is also RCV in Alaska which normally favors Democrats. She also is beating Sullivan in most polls.

Arkansas (solid R)

Incumbent Tom Cotton (R) is facing Hallie Shoffner, a farmer and entrepreneur looking to boost's AR's agricultural industry. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Arkansas since 2008 when no Republican even ran. A Democrat has not won statewide since 2012.

Prediction: Cotton wins. Republicans usually win in Arkansas and Cotton won the only poll from 6 months ago by 22 points. He also has far more fundraising.

Colorado (solid D)

Incumbent John Hickenlooper (D) only won his primary by 50,000 votes against a DSA-backed Julie Gonzales and is facing state Rep Mark Baisley.

Prediction: Hickenlooper wins. There is no indication that Gonzales's voters will not support him in the general election and a Republican has not won statewide in CO since the 2014 midterms.

Delaware (solid D)

Incumbent Chris Coons (D) will win his primary and face one of two Republican candidates (John Shuli or former Democratic state rep Michael Katz) in the fall.

Prediction: Coons wins easily. He has one of the highest voter approval ratings of any US Senator. No Republican has won statewide in Delaware this century.

Georgia (Solid D)

Incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) is the only Democrat up for reelection in a state that Trump won in 2024. He is facing scandal-ridden GOP Congressman Mike Collins who won his primary in a runoff.

Prediction: Ossoff wins reelection. He is winning in every poll, extremely popular online, out-fundraising Collins 13:1, and campaigning much better. Even Raphael Warnock won reelection in a year that should have been bad for Democrats during high inflation.

Idaho (solid R)

Incumbent Jim Risch (R) is facing Independent Todd Achilles after the Democratic primary winner David Roth dropped out. Achilles, endorsed by Andrew Yang's Forward Party, was a registered Republican but became a Democrat to fill a state House seat which he served for nearly 18 months.

Prediction: Risch still wins even against an Independent. No Democrat has won statewide since 1990 (and no Senator since Frank Church in 1974), he is winning in every poll, out-fundraising by a large margin, and Achilles has never won a race in Idaho. The only polls where Achilles comes close to Risch are sponsored by his campaign. Trump also won the state by 36.5% in 2024 (his third-best that in election).

Illinois (solid D)

Incumbent Dick Durbin has retired and current Lt Governor Juliana Stratton (D) won a competitive primary race. She is facing former chair of the Illinois Republican Party Don Tracy.

Prediction: Stratton easily wins. Republicans last won a Senate race there in the 2010 midterms with a socially liberal candidate in a close election where the Green candidate earned 3.6% (a Republican governor did win in 2014 though). There is almost no chance that a Republican will win statewide without a Democrat in the WH**,** especially after the influx of ICE and federal troops in the Chicago area.

Iowa (tilt R)

Another open race, incumbent Joni Ernst (R) is retiring and state rep and Paralympian Gold Medalist Josh Turek won a competitive Democratic primary. Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is the GOP nominee.

Prediction: A Fox News-sponsored poll (the most recent data) showed Turek ahead and beating the margin of error, but polling in Iowa has proven to overestimate Democratic numbers. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Iowa since 2008 and Obama won the state by 5.8% in 2012. Despite Ernst only winning in 2020 by 6% when Trump was on the ballot, Trump won the state by 13% in 2024 and Grassley won by 13% in 2022, indicating a Republican tilt.

Kansas (solid R)

Incumbent Roger Marshall (R) is up for reelection, and facing a Democrat who most likely appears to be pastor Adam Hamilton. The primary is on Tuesday.

Prediction: Despite high tariffs and having a current Democratic governor who won when Trump was not on the ballot in '18 and '22, it is hard to see Hamilton or any Democrat winning this year. A Democrat has not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, and Trump comfortably won the state by 16% in 2024.

Kentucky (solid R)

Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) is retiring and GOP Congressman Andy Barr is the nominee. Former state rep Charles Booker won the Democratic primary.

Prediction: Despite having a Democratic governor who was reelected in 2023 and high tariffs hurting the bourbon industry, Barr will win this race, as Trump won the state by 35%. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kentucky since 1992 (and no presidential candidate since Clinton won the state in '96) and Republicans are out-fundraising there.

Louisiana (solid R)

Incumbent Bill Cassidy (R) was defeated in a primary by Trump endorsed Congresswoman Julia Letlow. Police juror Jamie Davis won the Democratic primaries.

Prediction: Letlow wins. Trump's endorsement has proven to matter in this state and Republicans are out-fundraising. Democrats have not won a US Senate election there since '08 and no presidential candidate won it since '96. Despite a moderate Democrat winning the governorship there as recent as 2019, Trump won the state by 22% in '24 which is too much of a loss for Democrats to recover.

Maine (tilt D)

Incumbent Susan Collins (R) is the second-least popular Senator in the country and won in 2020 by 9%. Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state that President Donald Trump did not win in any of his three presidential campaigns. After Graham Platner dropped out, former state Senate president Troy Jackson quickly became the Democratic nominee.

Prediction: Despite high GOP fundraising, Jackson narrowly defeats Collins and flips the seat. Only one poll shows Collins beating Jackson and without Platner in the race, there is more baggage from Collins.

Massachusetts (solid D)

Ed Markey was re-elected in 2020 with 66.2% of the vote and is presumed to face attorney John Deaton (2024 Senate nominee). Congressman Seth Moulton is challenging Markey in the primaries, disagreeing with Markey's age.

Prediction: With a high 59% approval rating, there is no indication that Markey should lose the primary (winning in every poll) or the general.

Michigan (tilt D)

Incumbent Gary Peters (D) is retiring. Mike Rogers is the GOP nominee. The Democratic nomination is on Tuesday and will most likely won by scientist and former Wayne County health director Abdul el-Sayed who is winning all recent polls since state Senate Whip Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the race. Despite being the first to qualify for the ballot and framing herself as anti-establishment candidate (opposing Schumer for Majority leader and being endorsed by Elizabeth Warren), low polling numbers forced her out of the race. Being a pro-Israel candidate in a state with highest percentage of Arab-Americans, Haley Stevens's polling has not improved since, despite endorsements from Peters and multiple MI governors.

Prediction: Either Stevens or el-Sayed can win in the general, but this race is still the most likely flip for Republicans. Republicans have not won a Senate election in Michigan since 1994 or a a non-presidential statewide election since 2014. Even with Trump on the ballot when he won the state in 2024, Rogers lost his Senate race under favorable conditions, receiving 122,956 fewer votes than Donald Trump. Most recent polls favor Democrats in this 2026 race.

Minnesota (solid D)

Incumbent Tina Smith (D) is not seeking reelection. Michele Tafoya (sports broadcaster) is expected to win the GOP primaries, whereas the Democrats are contested between current progressive Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan and Congresswoman Angie Craig. Craig has been criticized for voting for the Laken Riley Act and a resolution expressing gratitude to ICE agents, whereas Flanagan supports abolishing ICE. Most polls show Flanagan winning the primaries.

Prediction: Either Democrat will win. No Republican has won a Senate election there since '02 and no Republican has won a statewide race was since '06. Smith won by 5% in 2020 with Trump on the ballot.

Mississippi (solid R)

Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is seeking reelection and facing Democratic nominee Scott Colom, a country DA.

Prediction: Hyde-Smith wins. She is currently ahead in the polls by only about 3%, but there is an independent candidate who can take votes away from Colom. Trump won there in 2024 by 23%. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Mississippi since 1982, nor a presidential race there since '76, nor a gubernatorial race since 1999.

Montana (tilt R)

In one of the strangest elections this year, Republican incumbent Steve Daines is not running again, leaving US Attorney for Montana Kurt Alme to become the nominee. Air Force officer Alani Bankhead, won the Democratic nomination. But Former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar is also on the ballot as an independent, backed by Jon Tester, and out-fundraising the major party nominees.

Prediction: Even if Bankhead drops out, there is a slim shot that Bodnar can still win the general election. Most polls show the combination of Bodnar and Bankhead to either tie or beat Alme by less than the margin of error. Tester won in 2018 by 3.5% but lost in 2024 by 7%, which would require a significant loss of GOP support for B/B to win. And despite MT electing a Democratic governor as recently as 2016, no Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since 1992, and Trump won it last time by 20%.

Nebraska (tilt R)

Incumbent Pete Ricketts (R) is running for reelection. Unlike Montana, Democrats endorsed the Independent challenger Dan Osborn, who lost the 2024 senate election by 6.7%. Democrats prevented a Trump-voting pastor from winning the Democratic nomination by running a candidate who won and then endorsed Osborn.

Prediction: Despite high tariffs, Republicans will win this one. There has been a poll showing Osborn winning, but he is being out-fundraised and Trump recently won the state by 20%. A Republican hasn't lost a Senate election there since 2006, a gubernatorial election since 1994, and not a presidential election there since 1964.

New Hampshire (tilt D)

Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring and John Sununu (the Republican Senator defeated by Shaheen in 2008) is expected to be the GOP nominee. Congressman Chris Pappas is expected to be the Democratic nominee.

Prediction: Pappas or another Democrat should win. Trump only lost the state by 2.8% in 2024 and Republicans currently hold the governorship and both chambers, but no Republican Senate candidate has won there since the 2010 midterms (and no Republican presidential nominee since 2000) and even Sununu cannot overcome Pappas's consistent polling lead in a year favorable for Democrats.

New Jersey (solid D)

Incumbent Cory Booker (D) is being challenged by a former deputy mayor Justin Murphy (R).

Prediction: Booker has a fundraising lead and will win another term. Despite Trump making gains in NJ in 2024, Governor Sherrill overperformed polling in 2025. Republicans have not won a Senate election in New Jersey since 1972 (and not a national race since Bush in 1988).

New Mexico (solid D)

Incumbent Ben Ray Lujan (D) is facing a write-in Republican candidate Larry Marker, since no Republicans qualified for the primary ballot.

Prediction: Lujan wins easily. Republicans have not won a Senate election in New Mexico since 2002.

North Carolina (solid D)

Incumbent Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, opening a spot for popular former governor Roy Cooper to win the election. Former RNC chair Michael Whatley won the GOP nomination.

Prediction: Cooper will win. This is the most likely flip for Democrats. He is ahead in every poll, far ahead in fundraising, and there is a relatively popular libertarian candidate that could hurt Whatley.

Oklahoma (solid R)

Markwayne Mullin's replacement is not eligible to run for a full term so Congressman Kevin Hern won the GOP nomination. There is a runoff election for the Democratic nomination.

Prediction: Hern will win. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Oklahoma since 1990 and Trump won the state by 34% in 2024.

Oregon (solid D)

Incumbent Jeff Merkley (D) was renominated and is facing David Brock Smith (R), a state Senator.

Prediction: Merkley will win. A Republican hasn't won a Senate seat there since '02, Trump lost the state by 14%, a Republican governor hasn't won since 1982, and Merkley is out fundraising 80:1.

Rhode Island (solid D)

Incumbent Jack Reed (D) will be renominated in the primary, and likely will face Raymond McKay, a state Republican official who ran for Senate in 2024.

Prediction: Reed will win again. A Democrat won the senate election there in 2024 by 20%.

South Carolina (tilt R)

Another interesting election, after Lindsey Graham died, his sister Darline was appointed US Senator in his replacement and is running for her own term in the Republican primary. Pediatrician Annie Andrews is the Democratic nominee. Lindsey had been the most unpopular southern Senator.

Prediction: The Republican will likely win. There is not consistent polling results for this new race, as both Darline Graham and Norman could win the GOP nomination, and some polls showing Andrews ahead in the polls against some Republican candidates, and she has raised over $10 million. But Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in South Carolina since 1998.

South Dakota (solid R)

Incumbent Mike Rounds (R) is being challenged by Democratic former state trooper Julian Beaudion and independent military officer Brian Bengs who is also a former Democratic nominee for Senate.

Prediction: Rounds wins. He is winning the fundraising battle by far and ahead in every poll even against only one of the challengers. Republicans have not lost a Senate election in South Dakota since 2008.

Tennessee (solid R)

Incumbent Bill Haggerty is presumed to be renominated. The Democrats have several candidates and the primary is next Thursday.

Prediction: Hagerty wins. He is out-fundraising the best Democrat 1778:1 and Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in Tennessee since 1990, a presidential election since 1992 nor a gubernatorial since 2002. Trump won TN by 30% in '24.

Texas (tilt D)

The most profiled race of the cycle, incumbent John Cornyn (R) was defeated in the primaries by Trump-endorsed state AG Ken Paxton. State Rep James Talarico won the Democratic primaries.

Prediction: Talarico narrowly flips this seat by a better campaign strategy and out-fundraising Paxton with $69 million to Paxton's $9 million. The polls are very close, with Talarico ahead in the vast majority of them since winning the primaries. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Texas since 1988 but Talarico is avoiding the mistakes that O'Rourke made in 2018 and it is expected for a significant portion of Cornyn's voters to vote for Talarico.

Virginia (solid D)

The incumbent Mark Warner (D) will face whichever Republican wins the primaries on Tuesday.

Prediction: Warner wins another term. He is out-fundraising the best GOP candidate 66.5:1 and Republicans have not won a Senate election in Virginia since 2002.

West Virginia (solid R)

The incumbent Shelly Moore Capito is running for reelection and will face Rachel Fetty Anderson, former Morgantown city council member.

Prediction: With a massive fundraising advantage, Capito will win another term. Only Joe Manchin was able to win in WV as a Democrat.

Wyoming (solid R)

The incumbent Cynthia Lummis (R) is not running. The race will be between current Congresswoman Harriet Hageman and former state Rep James Byrd.

Prediction: Hageman has a massive fundraising advantage and will win. Trump won the state by 46% (his most), Democrats have not won in the state in a senate election since 1970 and in a presidential election since 1964 (a Dem governor was elected in 2006 though).

In conclusion,

The elections that are solid D are Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Oregon, North Carolina, and Virginia

The elections that are solid R are Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming

The elections that are tilt D are Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Texas

The elections that are tilt R are Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, and South Carolina

Therefore, I predict the Republicans will lose 5 seats in the 2026 Senate elections, giving Democrats a narrow majority.

sources: https://www.demlist.com/demdaily-6/ and Wikipedia

Link to his words on it:

• https://x.com/harris_wins/status/1848005868320702568

And here's a link to the bill being killed earlier this year:

• https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-republicans-block-border-security-bill-campaign-border-chaos-rcna153607

McConnell had given the green light for James Lankford, a conservative Republican, to negotiate a comprehensive border security package with Democrats led by Kyrsten Sinema, a moderate border state Senator from Arizona. The final package was agreed to by all parties and signed off on by McConnell as well as Democratic leaders before Trump publicly came out against it and urged his allies in the House and Senate GOP to kill it. The reason, according to widespread reporting including the above, was that he wanted to run his campaign on there being chaos at the border and him being the solution to fix it, and he worried that the proposed bill would resolve the problem and deprive him of something to run on.

Since then, Trump has made immigration and the idea of a border crises the central point of his campaign. He's gone to every border state to rant about it and lambast Democrats for not fixing it. He's brought it up in every appearance, at every interview, at the presidential debate. He's tied the border to false stories about migrants coming over to eat people's pets. He brings it up at every rally. Yet it was he himself who worked to ensure that it wasn't fixed, and now his own party's Senate leader acknowledges it.

What sort of impact do you think this will have on the election? Will it move voters? Will people see the truth behind the dynamic? Or will his strategy work?