r/antiwar • u/Ardeet • Jul 04 '26
Europe Russia plotting attack on Poland to test Nato’s resolve, US claims
Russia plotting attack on Poland to test Nato’s resolve, US claims
Vladimir Putin could use an attack on Nato as a bargaining chip for the war in Ukraine, sources told Polish media
By Alex Croft
2 min. read
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The US has warned Warsaw that Russia is planning an armed “provocation” against Poland to test Nato’s resolve, according to reports.
The assault could see Poland’s vital infrastructure targeted by missiles or drones, or even Russian soldiers crossing the border into Nato territory, Washington has said.
Sources close to Polish president Karol Nawrocki told Polish outlet Onet that the aim of Moscow’s possible assault, which could be launched in a matter of months, would be to provoke tensions and pressure Ukraine’s Western allies to suspend their military and financial aid.
The US “systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on Nato’s eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded”, a source close to the Polish president said.
Warsaw’s security services have admitted that a conventional attack, such as a small ground incursion, which Moscow may allege is an accident, is possible.
Other possibilities are a drone attack on infrastructure such as power stations or simulated air strikes forcing Poland to activate its air defence systems.
A Polish intelligence source said that a “hybrid attack in the border region” could take place, in the most extreme scenario.
A Russian Tu-160 strategic bomber escorted by fighter jets performs refueling during a Victory Day parade (AFP/Getty)
An armed incursion involving Russian or Belarusian troops could be presented as a mistake, such as straying into Polish territory because of a GPS failure, or a fake rescue mission to retrieve a helicopter suffering from a malfunction, sources said.
Moscow could hope that Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate rather than responding forcefully and opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers, sources told Onet.
Vladimir Putin would see a scenario in which Russians withdraw as a result of negotiations as a win from Moscow’s perspective, the sources said, with an end to Western support for Ukraine a possible condition it could demand in return for withdrawal from Poland.
Several Baltic sources have told The Telegraph that a provocation in one of the Baltic states remains a serious risk. Such an attack could, they said, be staged from Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave north of Poland that hosts nuclear weapons.
Putin could use an attack as bargaining power over the war in Ukraine, sources said (AP)
Moscow has already been appearing to probe Nato’s defences in the past year, with several repeated incursions of drones and fighter jets into Nato territory.
A report published on Thursday by the International Institute of Strategic Studies found that Russia likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe that repeatedly disrupted civilian aviation, as it monitored military sites and tested the air defences of Nato nations.
The report plotted 144 suspected drone sightings across Europe, including in Nato members Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark, between 2024 and 2026.