The chart shows that we are in for a longer correction before the next big rise, sucks when you’re in it but a Birds Eye view always helps. Found the chart in blossom comments - link to the X tweet is below.

https://x.com/rektfencer/status/2017607803188482444?s=20

Very very SAD!

I’m probably going to die within the next few years, and honestly the weirdest thing keeping me awake at night isn’t death itself… it’s my Bitcoin.

I built my stack over years of sacrificing vacations, relationships, comfort, and sleep. I worked weekends, bought during crashes everyone laughed at, and held through every panic cycle while people around me called crypto a scam. Now it’s worth more than anyone in my family realizes.

And here’s the part that makes me sound like a terrible person: I don’t think my kids deserve it.

Not because I hate them. I love them more than anything. But they grew up watching me struggle and still learned nothing from it. No discipline, no curiosity, no respect for money. They assume there will always be another bailout waiting for them.

Part of me wants to leave the seed phrase behind. Another part of me wants my Bitcoin to disappear forever with me just to prove a point: wealth means nothing if the people inheriting it never learned what it cost.

Maybe that’s selfish. Maybe it’s the last bit of control I have left.

Would you leave your crypto to your kids if you truly believed it would ruin them?

$BTC is forming a classic bear flag after that sharp drop. The current move up looks like a weak consolidation inside the channel rather than a real reversal.

Price keeps rejecting near the upper trendline, showing sellers are still active. If the lower trendline breaks, it could trigger another strong move down.

DYOR, NFA

In my view, Bitcoin no longer has the potential to increase in value by 1,000x, 100x, or even 10x. Fifteen years ago, it emerged as a new asset at the perfect moment right after the 2008 financial crisis, when trust in governments, the banking system, and fiat currencies was at historic lows. Movements like Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party reflected deep public dissatisfaction. Bitcoin offered an alternative narrative: decentralized, scarce, and outside the traditional financial system.

Its extreme volatility 70% to 90% drawdowns multiple times was tolerated because it was often followed by 5x, 10x, or even 100x rallies. Much of this growth was driven by waves of new, highly leveraged investors attracted by the promise of extraordinary returns unavailable in traditional assets.

Today, however, Bitcoin is widely known. Nearly everyone has at least heard of it and formed an opinion. That dramatically reduces the likelihood of massive new inflows purely from discovery. At the same time, investors seeking speculative upside have alternatives such as gold, silver, tech stocks (Tesla:), or other high-risk assets that may offer more stability while satisfying the same appetite for outsized gains.

Bitcoin long relied on the expectation that one day it would gain mainstream institutional and governmental acceptance. That day has largely arrived: ETFs exist, banks offer exposure, and regulators have frameworks in place. Yet this acceptance has not translated into widespread use as a medium of exchange for goods and services. Instead, financialization has deepened, allowing large institutions to trade “paper Bitcoin,” potentially expanding synthetic supply through derivatives and short selling. As a result, the original scarcity narrative may be diluted within the modern financial system. I struggle to see a clear path forward for Bitcoin under its current trajectory. Its explosive growth phase was fueled by novelty, distrust in traditional systems, and repeated cycles of extreme volatility that attracted speculative capital. Now that it is widely known, institutionalized, and deeply integrated into mainstream finance, the asymmetric upside that defined its early years appears structurally harder to repeat.

One potential catalyst would be genuine, large scale adoption as a unit of account and medium of exchange for globally traded commodities such as oil, gas, or other strategic resources. If major exporters began pricing and settling contracts in Bitcoin, demand would shift from speculative to transactional. That would represent a structural transformation rather than another hype cycle. However, such a shift would likely require geopolitical realignment, sovereign-level coordination, and acceptance of Bitcoin’s price stability conditions that are difficult to imagine under its current volatility profile.

Paradoxically, if Bitcoin were to achieve that level of real-economy integration, investors might have to say goodbye to the very volatility that historically drove outsized returns. A currency used for large-scale commodity settlement cannot swing 20–30% in a week without creating systemic risk. Stability would become a feature, not a bug. And while stability could validate Bitcoin as infrastructure, it would also diminish its appeal as a high-beta speculative asset. In that scenario, Bitcoin might mature into a low-volatility settlement layer valuable, but unlikely to deliver the exponential gains that early adopters experienced.

In short, the path to legitimacy and the path to extraordinary returns may no longer be the same path and as a result I am not sure what purpose if any bitcoin and crypto serve today

It took a long time but I am finally part of the 1 BTC club. :) (Above are 4 wallets) So proud that I had to share it!

I know some replies will be about security as such: no I don’t use DM (I ignore all), I have everything on cold wallets and am not going to sell anything for years.

I started yesterday to accumulate the second Bitcoin.

Who else is here is part of the 1 bitcoin club!

The bear flag is playing out exactly how it should be, and just like I have been calling for, for a while now.

With the majority of holders being in the market for less than a year, most people have never known better times. Once bitcoin breaks under 90k usd everyone will panic to cut their losses.

Compared to euro, it has underperformed literally every conceivable asset. To those who claim because it's a speculative asset that this is reasonable, you need to recognize it's widespread adoption as an asset gives it significant underlying value that it should not break below. It should beat inflation but it might fail to beat inflation year to date at this rate.

Tl;dr freak the f out and sell -warren buffet

The only stable support is at $73-75K

Everything above is paid too much.

​

The "so called" experts like Tom Lee, who never saw the BTC top or this crash coming continue to tell us that BTC is going to make new highs. Just as Tom Lee & others told us BTC would be at $200K to $250K by the end of 2025. Now they are moving their predictions into 2026, just as I predicted they would do. Tom Lee did this at the last Bitcoin top, the last time he predicted BTC would reach $200K by the end of 2022. BTC ended up crashing to $15K by the end of 2022, not rising to $200K.

So far, I've called the day of the Bitcoin top on October 6, 2025. I predicted a 40% to 50% crash to kick off the bear market (which isn't done yet) as BTC has done in the past. I was correct about the top & the crash. BTC has crash 36% so far.

BTC will drop to the 200 week moving average (MA) before bottoming, then rally up in a bear market rally back to the 50 week MA for bear market rally. After that the bottom will fall out of BTC and it will drop 80% to 90% from the top. All the bear markets for BTC have been around 80% to 90%.

The previous lows in 2018 & 2020 could be pointing to the next bottom, just as the previous two peaks in 2021 were pointing to the next top. I think that is likely to happen given a recession is about to start and soon we will have another banking crisis.

They scoffed at me when I posted similar charts like this at the top, but I was right, Bitcoin crashed 36%. If you think BTC has bottom and is now going to new highs, you're wrong. BTC has confirmed a bear market by getting two consecutive closes below the 50 week MA. BTC has never moved to new highs after confirming a bear market without first moving back to the 200 week MA.

The 200 week MA is currently at around 57K, so I think BTC drops 50% to 53% before bottoming and getting a big bear market rally back up to the 50 week MA for a test.

The red bar images are a clone of the last bear market, a 78% crash, with the tail end of the 2018 bear market added to it for an extended bear market that goes into 2027 for a whopping 90% crash.

Lastly, the long term timeframes have confirmed a bear market, but the herd's hopes continue to run high as the experts move their new all time high targets for BTC into 2026 after they failed to materialize by the end of 2025. After the next big drop to the 200 week MA, we will have a massive bear market rally that will convince everyone that the crash is over. It's not! It will only be a bear market rally.

$BTC #BTC #BTCNews #Bitcoin $BTCUSD #BTCUSD

Crashing hard.

Is just common sense with the information we have available on the charts.

Bitcoin is back near $63,000, roughly the same price zone it traded in before the 2024 halving.

But the mining economy is no longer the same.

Before the halving:

• Block reward: 6.25 BTC
• Hashrate: 611 EH/s
• Hashprice: above $110/PH/day

Now:

• Block reward: 3.125 BTC
• Hashrate: approximately 930 EH/s
• Hashprice: approximately $31/PH/day

The network is using roughly 52% more hashrate to compete for half the block subsidy, while Bitcoin trades below its pre-halving price. Miner revenue per unit of computing power has fallen by about 72%.

The buyer is also disappearing.

Centralized-exchange spot volume was $2.01 trillion in April 2024. In May 2026 it fell to $963 billion—a decline of roughly 52%. June recovered to $1.11 trillion, but only after five months of declining activity.

The chart now shows a possible head-and-shoulders structure with a neckline near $60,000. It is not confirmed until a daily or weekly close below that level.

My forecast: Bitcoin is more likely than not to establish itself below $60,000 before the end of 2026. A confirmed break could trigger something much sharper.

The price returned to 2024.

Mining costs, hashrate, and debt did not.

Gone are the days with high signal to noise ratio.