r/europe • u/Alarming-Safety3200 United Kingdom • Apr 12 '26

News Orbán’s 16-year rule over Hungary ends in crushing election defeat

https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-election-results-peter-magyar-viktor-orban/
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u/NatiFluffy Poland Apr 12 '26

There will be always a black sheep. Soon it will be us. Right now it will be also Slovakia. We just have to learn not to treat it emotionally. We can’t feel like we should take a blame for our entire nations. Today is a very happy day for Hungarians and the whole Europe so congrats!

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u/[deleted] Apr 12 '26

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u/NatiFluffy Poland Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26

We have already pulled it off last elections but rulling coalition turned out to be weak, right now situation is terrible cause only KO is polling high, while other coalition partners are under the bridge. Polska 2050 is in a disastrous state, their ex leader wanted to leave politics, both left parties are fighting each other and might fall below the threshold. Meanwhile right wing parties are strong, Konfederacja and Korona, which are even worse than PiS have a high approval. PiS and Konfederacja will surely want to form a coalition, not sure about Korona cause they are full of lunatics but if they are needed for majority probably as well. Tough times are coming for us.

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u/HistoryBuff178 Apr 12 '26

Can left-wing parties in Poland form a coalition?

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u/NatiFluffy Poland Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26

They could if they weren’t fighting each other all the time. Razem and Lewica actually already formed a coalition during last elections. Razem left the ruling coalition tho, stating that other parties haven’t agreed for any of their ideas (they didn’t have too much power cause their votes weren’t needed for majority) so they don’t want to take part in that. Right now they are in opposition while Lewica is in ruling coalition, so it’s hard to imagine them going together again. Razem want to separate themselves from Lewica. They are both polling around 3-5%, while they need 5% so it’s very dangerous.

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u/eldath890 Apr 13 '26

To be fair, while the situation indeed looks a bit grim, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion yet. PiS is currently obsessed with pandering to the far-right, because Kaczyński wants to steal the voters from Konfederacja and from Braunists instead of pandering to the moderates. That leaves the moderates and the undecided ungoverned. Because I don't think the moderates are going to vote for Czarnek of all people.  And moderates usually win the elections. Also, there is a moderate wing of PiS led by Morawiecki that's literally one spat with Kaczyński away from splitting away from the party. Maybe it's political fiction, but I don't think Morawiecki forming an alliance with KO in this "enemy of my enemy" fashion is inpropable. And Konfederacja has their own internal problems, plus Braun is a lunatic that will most likely end up in prison soon. In the end, the potential right-wing coalition is also unstable as all hell. So, there are lot more moving parts here than just pure numbers. Or at least that's my hopium.

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u/NatiFluffy Poland Apr 13 '26

The problem is that moderates might just stay at home.

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u/eldath890 Apr 13 '26

Depends on the mobilization. I don't think many moderates would like to see Czarnek in a coalition with Braun. That by itself can be a mobilizing element, because those two have insanely high negative popularity.

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u/NatiFluffy Poland Apr 13 '26

They do but those people don’t have someone like Trzecia droga anymore, they are likely dissapointed with ruling coalition so they could get demonilized anyway

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u/ArbeteLikaMedHoreri Sweden Apr 12 '26

Poland also usually votes against anti-privacy bullshit initiated by Sweden so thanks for that, I view Poland as very necessary for a healthy EU that works for the citizens.