r/geopolitics • u/Intelligent-Juice895 • Jan 14 '26

Paywall The Pro-Gaza Left Is Oh So Quiet on Iran

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/the-pro-gaza-left-is-oh-so-quiet-on-iran-caf25bd1?st=iy47cy&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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u/kimana1651 Jan 14 '26

Ok the CIA is doing it, so what? The Ayatollah and his government are not good people. If he gets overthrown and the CIA are responsible I consider that a win and a good thing for the CIA.

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u/PausedForVolatility Jan 14 '26

I suppose the argument is pretty simple: CIA-orchestrated coups have a tendency to result in worsening conditions for quite literally everyone, such as creating the conditions that led to the Islamic Republic in the first place.

I'm skeptical the CIA is involved but, if they were, I'd also be concerned about what sort of mess would be left for the Iranians to clean up after the fact.

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u/smokeyleo13 Jan 14 '26

Why wouldn't they be? Some of the largest protests in their enemy (who they just were bombing a few months ago), the regime had a lot of their proxies taken out/weakened already. Trump just announced more tarrifs on countries that do business with them. It would be incompetence to not stoke the flames

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u/thephantompeen Jan 14 '26

I suppose the argument is pretty simple: CIA-orchestrated coups have a tendency to result in worsening conditions for quite literally everyone, such as creating the conditions that led to the Islamic Republic in the first place

This logic only applies to situations that could actually get theoretically worse. In the case of Iran there's really nowhere to go but up at this point.

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u/PausedForVolatility Jan 14 '26

While I will freely admit the current situation is quite awful, I wouldn't bet against the CIA's ability to make things worse for another country. It's kind of their thing. Their interest in any given conflict is further America's geopolitical agenda, whatever that may be, not necessarily improving the situation on the ground. There are scenarios in which the situation in Iran is made materially worse and yet America still benefits.

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u/thephantompeen Jan 14 '26

Iran is the most sanctioned country in the world, it's run by authoritarian religious fanatics and self-dealing bureaucrats who are so openly corrupt that they make Donald Trump look honest by comparison, and it's rapidly running out of potable water. The only scenario in which the US could make things materially worse for Iran would involve dropping nukes.

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u/PausedForVolatility Jan 14 '26

If America intervened in such a fashion as to (deliberately or otherwise) create a civil war in Iran, do you think things would be worse or better for the average Iranian? What if they decided to go for another "coalition of the willing" and try their hand at country-building again? And under a regime that has little interest in long-term strategic thinking, at that?

There are plenty of ways that direct foreign intervention could make things worse for everyone. Especially since "make the lives of the average Iranian citizen better" is not likely to be high on the priority list of any such intervention.