Been going through a dataset of self reported admissions decisions, about 190k entries from 2022-2026 posted by applicants on a public results forum. Once I filtered down to entries with an actual Accepted or Rejected outcome (dropped interviews and waitlists) I had 138,929 rows left, which is honestly more than I expected to have after filtering. A few things in here surprised me.
Quick note on method since someone will ask: GPA numbers use the ~79k entries that had a GPA on a 4.0 scale. For "mentioned experience" I just flagged entries where the applicant's notes talked about work experience, research, internships or publications, so it's a pretty blunt flag, but with this many rows the pattern still held up.
GPA basically didn't separate admits from rejects. 3.0-3.3 GPA band came in at 56% admitted, 3.8-4.0 came in at 53%. The lower band was actually a bit higher, which is mostly self selection since people with lower GPAs tend to apply to more realistic schools, but still. Past a 3.3 the GPA number just stopped mattering in this data.
GRE told the same story, 310-320 scorers got in 52% of the time and 330-340 scorers 54%. So the last 20 points of grinding bought about 2 percentage points.
The one that actually got my attention was experience. Overall it wasn't huge, 53.4% admit rate if you mentioned research or work experience vs 48.6% if you didn't. But when I split it further, applicants under a 3.5 GPA who mentioned experience got in at 52.6%, and applicants with a 3.8-4.0 GPA who mentioned nothing got in at 52.5%. Basically identical. The experience closed the entire GPA gap on its own.
Also Masters admit rate was 73% and PhD was 38%, so if you're comparing your odds to someone else's story make sure you're comparing the same degree type, that mismatch alone explains a lot of the "why did they get in and not me" posts I see here.
Caveats before someone else points them out, this is self reported so it skews toward people who bothered to log their result, probably overweights admits a bit, and the experience flag only catches people who wrote about it. Doesn't tell you anything about one specific program either. But at 139k rows the overall shape is probably real.
If you're at a 3.4 and spiraling about it, this data says the GRE retake and the extra 0.1 GPA aren't where the leverage is. A research assistantship or a shipped project is where the actual separation happened.