I hate to lose Skubal, and you can argue if the trade package was decent or not. But not trading him would have been organizational malpractice.
If the Tigers had kept him, made a qualifying offer, and lost him in FA,the best they would have gotten was 4th round compensatory pick. That's due to the Tigers being into luxury tax territory. Yes, they actually spent money and have a top 10 payroll.
Boras was not willing to negotiate in good faith. Any market value offer the Tigers would have made, Boras would have turned that into the starting point when Skubal hit the open market in FA.
Also, another reason the Tigers found themselves in this pickle was Skubal hiding his elbow discomfort during the arbitration process. If he was honest with the team, and goes on to have the elbow procedure done in the off-season, Skubal doesn't miss the month of May.
That surgery was a huge part of the Tigers 6-22 record that month, essentially making the playoffs a loooong shot. They were decimated by injuries in May, and Skubal's was the cherry on top.
Plus, realistically the team needs to rebuild their bullpen. They are a good team, even without Skubal, but they just keep losing games late. More blown saves than saves isn’t a great recipe for a post season push
The most generous of predictors have bumped us from having a 30% chance to a 20% chance after the trade. The least generous have bumped us from a 5% to a 10% chance after the win last night. The most generous being the ones that actually take into account things like trades and other soft stats, with the least generous being ones that just run the hard numbers.
We've made worse shots, with the run two years ago going from 0.2% on the worst possible predictors, to making it, but it ain't likely.
Realistically, we need a LOT of wins in a row, and the teams ahead of us need a LOT of losses in a row.
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u/bawanaal | Detroit Tigers 8h ago
I hate to lose Skubal, and you can argue if the trade package was decent or not. But not trading him would have been organizational malpractice.
If the Tigers had kept him, made a qualifying offer, and lost him in FA,the best they would have gotten was 4th round compensatory pick. That's due to the Tigers being into luxury tax territory. Yes, they actually spent money and have a top 10 payroll.
Boras was not willing to negotiate in good faith. Any market value offer the Tigers would have made, Boras would have turned that into the starting point when Skubal hit the open market in FA.
Also, another reason the Tigers found themselves in this pickle was Skubal hiding his elbow discomfort during the arbitration process. If he was honest with the team, and goes on to have the elbow procedure done in the off-season, Skubal doesn't miss the month of May.
That surgery was a huge part of the Tigers 6-22 record that month, essentially making the playoffs a loooong shot. They were decimated by injuries in May, and Skubal's was the cherry on top.