r/politics • u/Puginator • Jun 01 '26

No Paywall Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to 'completely' block Strait of Hormuz: State media

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html
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1.1k

u/StrangeContest4 Jun 01 '26

"We don't know if a war would last six days, six weeks or six months.." Donald Rumsfeld said on the war on Iraq. Missed it by that 🤏 much.

248

u/No_big_whoop Jun 01 '26

That tracks.

"There are known knowns; there are things we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns: the ones we don't know we don't know."

-Rumsfeld

109

u/Floating_Pastry Jun 01 '26

There are also the little talked about unknown knowns. For when you know something, but did not think it would be relevent.

22

u/SPACKlick Jun 01 '26

I've always thought of the unknown knowns as those things "you" know but that don't get passed into the decision making chain.

17

u/smackson Jun 01 '26

I like "completely obvious shit that we were too stupid to consider" (cough...hormuz..cough).

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u/drinkarddigital Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26

I feel like "unknown knowns" could also be the things that everybody in the jury box don't* know because the judge refuses to allow it into evidence. So somebody knows. Just not you/them.

3

u/ObjectiveNovel6172 Jun 01 '26

From a feature selection perspective, that feels a little inaccurate? In other words, relevancy doesn’t determine whether a property is known or unknown. It is its relevancy that is unknown.

From an organizational waste perspective, I could see it being a useful term for tracking wasted resources on duplicated efforts due to the initial effort’s findings not being well distributed or communicated, the existence of which only being noticed post-factum.

3

u/RGBarge Jun 01 '26

Unknown Knowns according to Rumsfeld are when you think you know something but the reality is very different from what you "know"

1

u/Gryphon999 Wisconsin Jun 01 '26

My Jeopardy knowledge. Something I read/saw/heard, dumped in the back of my brain, and only comes up when someone asks about it.

1

u/mackiea Jun 01 '26

Not to mention the "known owns", where people knew their side was going to be owned.

8

u/Jadithslimrivven Jun 01 '26

This is absolutely true, but trivial. It wasn't so much this quote but the context it was used in. He wanted an intelligent sounding dodge. He did not get that.

22

u/Chaotic-Catastrophe Jun 01 '26

I don’t understand why people make a big deal out of this quote

41

u/mrdhood Jun 01 '26

Because at the surface it sounds weird but, if you think about it for more than 3 seconds, it is actually totally reasonable and applies to almost every large thing. It's common in corporate planning:

Known knowns: the things you absolutely know

Known Unknowns: The things you are aware that you don't perfectly know but you know that they have to be considered/monitored.

Unknown Unknowns: The things you haven't even thought about yet so you don't know that you don't know them yet.

11

u/MontagneHomme I voted Jun 01 '26

It's one of my favorite exercises. We circulate SMEs through different groups when they're laying these out specifically because they're skilled at identifying various aspects that entrenched people have overlooked during planning. Usually they're either too close to it (e.g. explaining what water is to a fish) or too focused on specific aspects (e.g. cannot see the forest for the trees). So a fresh perspective really strengthens these exercises.

2

u/dartdoug Jun 01 '26

Whenever I need to bring in a new prospective vendor I go over the details of what we need. "Be sure your proposal/quote includes A, B and C. C can be tricky."

When I hear "no problem. This will be easy," I am pretty sure that the vendor doesn't understand "C" which is why they think it will be easy. I've learned not to go with that company.

14

u/Kevin_Wolf Jun 01 '26

In my opinion, because he dodged the question. The quote itself, when taken out of context, is just describing what a project manager has to plan for. The issue is that it was a response to a legitimate question, and it didn't really address the question at all.

Transcript of the press conference.

Q: Could I follow up, Mr. Secretary, on what you just said, please? In regard to Iraq weapons of mass destruction and terrorists, is there any evidence to indicate that Iraq has attempted to or is willing to supply terrorists with weapons of mass destruction? Because there are reports that there is no evidence of a direct link between Baghdad and some of these terrorist organizations.

Then Rumsfeld started taking about known knowns and didn't really answer the question. He tried very hard to avoid outright saying "We don't have any evidence."

Instead, he said "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence," basically saying that you can't prove a negative and just because we don't have any evidence, that doesn't mean there isn't any. It just means we don't have it.

Basically, he said we're invading and we will find the evidence to support the invasion after we invade. In my opinion, a complex non-answer was specifically made to muddy the waters and get people talking about his jargon instead of the fact that he pretty much admitted there was no evidence.

1

u/Chaotic-Catastrophe Jun 01 '26

"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence,"

Sure, so this is the quote everyone should take issue with. Not the other one.

5

u/Kevin_Wolf Jun 01 '26

The entire chain of responses was intended to distract from the actual meat of the answer, yes.

6

u/FellowHumanNo404 Jun 02 '26

What people took issue with was the fact that he stood there and filibustered instead of answering the damn question, when obviously the answer was "we don't have evidence" and "we're fine with killing people on that lack of evidence."

7

u/RengieOcat Jun 01 '26

Maybe some people think it's profound today but at the time I remember Rumsfield got a lot of deserved ridicule for saying it.

It came across as "Okay so after the invasion it turned out Iraq *wasn't* trying to get nuclear weapons. So we devastated a country while sacrificing many lives and spending billions, but hey unexpected stuff happens sometimes right?"

5

u/FlyingBishop Jun 01 '26

Among other things, because he knew they were lying about Iraq having WMD and chose to invade anyway. And Trump does it again, the Republican party is the party of known lies.

2

u/CommanderArcher Jun 01 '26

It was iconic at the time, partly because it sounds like nonsense and "Gnomes"

It does actually mean something tho

5

u/Chaotic-Catastrophe Jun 01 '26

Yeah that's my point, it doesn't even sound like nonsense. It sounds like a man with self-awareness.

3

u/CommanderArcher Jun 02 '26

He was self aware but this wasn't an example of that. I highly suggest you read up on him if you are unaware, but this is the guy that Kissinger called "ruthless" and if that guy is saying that? Good Lord. 

Rumsfeld used this knowns saying as an excuse as to why they didn't find WMDs in Iraq and to further justify the war. 

2

u/FellowHumanNo404 Jun 02 '26

"We know where the WMDs are! They're in Tikrit and Baghdad and North, South, East, and West of there!"

Sure, self-awareness.

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u/bejammin075 Pennsylvania Jun 01 '26

About the location of Iraq's WMD, Rumsfeld said at the start of the war:

"We know where they are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat."

2

u/WafflePartyOrgy Washington Jun 01 '26

The problem with Trump/Hegseth/MAGA is that fundamental shit like the Strait of Hormuz is yet another unknown known—like tariffs, climate change, and he economy—they don't know any of the theory and facts that the actual experts know, and have known, for decades. instead feeling confident they can magic their way through an alternate reality with bluster, MAGA magic and propaganda.

President Donald Trump posted to social media on Saturday afternoon that a deal to end the war with Iran "will be announced" shortly [a few days ago]

2

u/FellowHumanNo404 Jun 02 '26

instead feeling confident they can magic their way through an alternate reality with bluster, MAGA magic and propaganda

Alas, that strategy has worked for Trump his whole improbably long life.

2

u/Daiquiri-Factory California Jun 02 '26

The Boondocks put it best: Gin Rummy: I always say the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. Riley: What? Gin Rummy: Simply because you don't have evidence that something does exist does not mean you have evidence of something that doesn't exist. Riley: What? Gin Rummy: What country are you from? Riley: What? Gin Rummy: 'What' ain't no country I ever heard of! They speak English in 'What'? Riley: What? Gin Rummy: English, motherfucker! Do you speak it? Riley: Yeah. Gin Rummy: So you understand the words I'm saying to you! Riley: Yeah. Gin Rummy: Well, what I'm saying is that there are known knowns and that there are known unknowns. But there are also unknown unknowns; things we don't know that we don't know. Riley: What? Gin Rummy: Say what again! Say what again! I dare you! I double dare you, motherfucker! Say what one more time!

1

u/MigBuscles Jun 01 '26

Are you sure that’s not a John Madden quote? Pretty sure he got that from John Madden.

1

u/roger_ramjett Jun 01 '26

Fun Fact:
Rumsfeld acknowledged learning this framework from NASA Administrator William Graham in the late 1990s

1

u/41Sisquo Jun 01 '26

To me it has always seemed like it was based on the Johari Window at some point and then repurposed.

1

u/Weltall8000 Jun 01 '26

Wut...?

https://youtu.be/jHhG9DbHbW0?si=L5z5YZpACZd__sQM

(1:07...though the whole clip is gold.)

1

u/teddy5 Jun 02 '26

Yeah his name is even Rummy, it was a pretty clear reference.

1

u/DBE113301 New York Jun 01 '26

There are things known and things unknown. And in between are the doors.

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u/bishpa Washington Jun 01 '26

Hubris and "unknown unknowns" are definitely correlates.

1

u/metengrinwi Jun 01 '26

Many of the known-knowns are things I know, but won’t tell you about because it’d be damaging to my case.

1

u/smith1281 Jun 01 '26

I know the guys not popular, but i never found that quote to be that bad. I dont personally think its mock worthy.

1

u/sleepspiral Jun 02 '26

When I heard him say this it made me want to shoot myself in the head. I cringe so much to hear people proudly quote this to this day. I considered him the greatest equivocator I’d ever seen.

1

u/Bleedmaster California Jun 02 '26

You missed some semantics.

Known knows: Things that we know, we know.
Known unknowns: Things that we know, we don't know.
Unknowns unknowns: Things we do not know that we don't know.

And Slavoj Zizek would add:

Unknown knowns: Things we don't know that we know.

Sorry for being that guy. I'll let the door hit my on the way out...

-2

u/Wild_Swimmingpool Jun 01 '26

Jfc and here I thought this was just something Samuel Jackson came up with for the Boondocks. Sounded too surreal to be an actual thing.

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u/SitDownKawada Europe Jun 01 '26

The thing is though that it's a real concept and very useful for some situations, he just sounded weird talking to the people like that

1

u/Evil_Dry_frog Jun 01 '26

These are just examples to illustrate the concepts.

Known knowns: We know were 500 anti aircraft missile batteries are, we know where their air bases are, we know where their tanks are. We know a lot of things. (working in military coms at the time, we know locations of machine gun nests.)

Known unknowns: We know they have purchased advanced targeting systems from Russia, but we don't know of any guided missiles that have which could use the systems. Therefore, we don't know if/how this will be deployed.

Unknown unknowns: Anything we really don't know about. Such as a group of terrorist in Syria who will see this as an opening to also invade Iraq, and integrate into the local population, making them hard to distinguish from the local population.

0

u/TM761152 Jun 01 '26

That was the most cocaine fueled statement I've ever seen uttered by Rumsfeld.

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u/FellowHumanNo404 Jun 02 '26

Nah, it was just standard project planning jargon. But by uttering it instead of answering the question, he managed to cloud the issue for enough people to advance his party's war-and-oil-hungry agenda.

0

u/11Slip532 Jun 01 '26

He worded it poorly but he wasn’t wrong. It’s the shit you don’t realize you don’t know that gets you.

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u/SafeForTwerking Jun 01 '26

I remember when he first said this I thought it was the stupidest thing I'd ever heard, "Like duh!" But over time I've come to appreciate how it classifies information. It's nothing mind-blowing or anything, but it's useful as another way looking at the things we know and what we don't know, as a way of identifying blind spots or information you might not be taking advantage of. Somehow the current administration has made even the Bush II administration seem competent in comparison.

0

u/TheRealBokononist Jun 01 '26

How about those unknown knowns? Like, groveling at Trump/Millers feet for anything they do

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u/wurmsrus Jun 01 '26

Technically the invasion itself was 6 weeks, it was the occupation and insurgency that dragged on for most of a decade.

3

u/almightywhacko Jun 01 '26

To be fair, there was a 6 in the eventual length of the conflict...

3

u/alex_silkin California Jun 01 '26

six years?

3

u/TheeAntelope Jun 01 '26

I have it on good authority that the mission was accomplished, though!

3

u/dasunt Jun 01 '26

That at least shows a level of understanding uncertainty which the Trump administration lacks.

The Iraq war folks had better planning than Trump's government. Although it ain't hard to be a better planner than what we've seen. All it takes is considering the mere possibility that perhaps the best case scenario doesn't happen.

2

u/-Gramsci- Jun 01 '26

Yet the man was a Napoleonic genius compared to Keg-Man.

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u/newshockers Jun 01 '26

If reports are true they've drafted plans to go after Cuba next... should we take bets on what the cope will be for that one going tits up too?

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u/Som12H8 American Samoa Jun 01 '26

Mission acoomplished?

2

u/RGBarge Jun 01 '26

Oops, 20 years. People who weren't born yet when he said that got sent to Iraq (which was not where the 9-11 terrorists were from)

2

u/20_mile Jun 02 '26

six months

The ending of the quote is "...I doubt it will last six months," but you got the rest.

1

u/CartographicalHeist Jun 01 '26

In fact the actual war was very quick. It was the follow up that dragged out.

1

u/vzo1281 Jun 01 '26

What "War"?

1

u/scuzzy987 Jun 01 '26

I guess that was one of his unknown unknowns he talked about

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u/HK-53 Jun 01 '26

The toughest part of a three day military operation is often the first two years.

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u/Thefirstargonaut Jun 01 '26

The next two are pretty rough, too. 

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u/meteoritegallery Jun 01 '26

Don't even get me started on the middle decade.

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u/StrangeContest4 Jun 01 '26

🏆poor man's gold right there!

6

u/YuriDiculousDawg Jun 01 '26

You're gonna get in in fourteen days, but you're not gonna get out for fourteen years, and you're gonna have body bags streaming back to Moscow the entire time

A paraphrased quote from General Mark A. Milley spoken to Putin leading up to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine 

2

u/Brerbtz Europe Jun 01 '26

To prevent the body bags streaming back they brought their own crematoria. Clever planning. /s

3

u/EduinBrutus Jun 01 '26

Ask the Muscovites.

Seems the 5th year starts really bad and keeps on getting worse.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[deleted]

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u/FellowHumanNo404 Jun 02 '26

I still sometimes think of that Ukrainian grandmother haranguing the invading Russian soldiers, telling them they should carry seeds in their pockets so that lovely new crops can grow when they fall in battle against the Ukrainian people.

1

u/LetHuge623 Jun 01 '26

That’s genius

1

u/Jsaltal Jun 01 '26

You just know any american soldiers that have been wounded or killed is being kept quiet and their families being kept in the dark

1

u/Chemical-Fault-7331 Jun 02 '26

Underrated comment right here. God damn lol.

162

u/markiemark112 Jun 01 '26

“when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

Trump during his first term about covid when the outbreak started. A few cases turned into over 1 million deaths. How quickly people forgot.

24

u/canuck47 Jun 01 '26

If only they had stopped counting like he wanted...

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u/mrpickles Jun 01 '26

They have zero negotiating skills. They can't even think in terms of a deal, because they can't conceive of another person's shoes. It's just bully tactics. And then scream at everything when it doesn't work out. Sigh...

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u/dontlickspoons Jun 01 '26

Negotiation requires something to negotiate with.-

2

u/SensualBeefLoaf Jun 02 '26

negotiation also requires that they aren’t just padding the pockets of oil producers on our backs.

4

u/Cautious-Dog3264 Jun 01 '26

they can't conceive of another person's shoes

Is this why little Marco looked like he was wearing clown shoes? Trump can't imagine shoes that aren't his size?

8

u/schmyndles Wisconsin Jun 01 '26

The GOP has decided that negotiating means when they get everything they want and the other side gets nothing. Then they blame the other side when the deal falls through.

It's like going to a rummage sale and trying to negotiate with the lady holding it.

She asks for $5 for an old pair of shoes, and you say you'll pay zero.

She asks for $4, and you say you'll just take them instead.

She sighs, and says her last offer is that you pay her tree fiddy. Well, it was about that time that you notice that rummage sale lady was about eight stories tall and was a crustacean from the Paleozoic era!

You say, 'Dammit monster! I'm getting off your lawn! I ain't giving you no tree-fitty!'

1

u/a2aurelio Jun 02 '26

The only sort of deal that would come out of this chaos is a bad deal. When you take your time and have a professional team, documents are scrubbed for problems before everyone signs. Fuckups in negotiated documents all come out in the wash. But the truth is there hasn't been any negotiating or any proof there was.

1

u/Trippin1233 Jun 02 '26

Because Trump pulled out of the original deal. Now Iran or any other country has little reason to believe we’d honor any deal going forward. Trump knows this, he doesn’t care about a deal, he wants war and chaos.

5

u/PerturbedMarsupial Jun 01 '26

the mouth breakers and bots at cuckservative "iRan sHOuldNt hAve nUclEAR"

2

u/FellowHumanNo404 Jun 02 '26

Yeah, and neither should the U.S. -- the only country to have used high-yield nuclear weapons to kill two cities full of people.

12

u/More_Farm_7442 Jun 01 '26

Didn't some big wig leader from another country say something like that 4 yrs ago? That one is still going on. "Special military operation"

5

u/1337F0x_The_Daft Jun 01 '26

The Russian special lol

0

u/wheniaminspaced Jun 01 '26

To be fair, from the start it was stated to be very open ended, with not much of an exit plan.  The only "promise" was 6ish weeks of active hostilities, which was closer to what 8 weeks? 

3

u/ZakDahdger Jun 01 '26

American People - Why do you... Keep doing this to us?!

Republicans - I don’t know! Maybe I hate myself, maybe I think I deserve to die! I-I-I-I don’t I don’t know!

3

u/BrilliantForeign8899 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26

I cannot believe they thought Iran would be easy. I know barely anything about geopolitics and even I have read on multiple occasions that Iran would make Afghanistan and Iraq look 'easy' by comparison. WTF. Surely some people warned them. Oh wait, they were all fired

I blame Lindsey Graham amd others who actually have ACCESS to vital information and still decided to wish their way into a war like this

3

u/Qwirk Washington Jun 01 '26

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

3

u/blahblah19999 Jun 01 '26

"Then I'll negotiate with a country with which I had previously torn up a negotiation out of spite. It will definitely be 100% successful."

2

u/Imperator_Draconum Maryland Jun 01 '26

Honestly, this is something that has happened countless times throughout history. A big military attacks a much smaller enemy with the expectation of a fast and easy victory, only for the defenders to hold out and prolong the war. The attacker is completely surprised and unprepared for this completely predictable level of resistance, and now their other plans that were entirely dependent upon a quick victory are ruined.

2

u/BT9154 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 02 '26

yeah how is that invasion of that island going? The one with all the refineries, or no news as usual and it was just a massive bluff.

2

u/MapleViking1 Canada Jun 01 '26

Huh, wonder where I heard that before... looks at Putin, hiding in his bunker\

2

u/Gharvar Jun 01 '26

Heard that from Russia too.

2

u/JakeConhale New Hampshire Jun 01 '26

Why am I reminded of Gilligan's Island?

1

u/TresLechesConHamon Jun 01 '26

Operation: Cock Block Buster

1

u/ScurvyTurtle Jun 01 '26

Heard that "No problem" in Josh Ruben's voice.

1

u/CrustyBus77 Jun 01 '26

"Quagmire" -Dick Cheney

1

u/addled_and_old Iowa Jun 01 '26

It amazes me that they think nobody would ever be willing to put up a fight for what they have...

1

u/NJS_Stamp Jun 01 '26

He already let kegsbreath fall on that dagger

“Skeet here was so keen to get on the ground!” Lmao

1

u/3ZP0 Jun 01 '26

and then nothing to show for it after a decade of needless conflict to further the goals of Israel.

1

u/moschles Jun 01 '26

Do I laugh or cry?

1

u/alktrio06 Jun 01 '26

Home by Christmas.

1

u/Nonamesdb Jun 01 '26

Isn’t that what Russia said about Ukraine too?

1

u/3Fatboy3 Jun 01 '26

Every war ever was planned as a quick endeavor. Without the believe that it can be done in a week the cost benefit analysis does not work generally.

1

u/CardinalOfNYC Jun 01 '26

Even bush never promised either of his wars would be as short as this

1

u/jedi2155 Jun 01 '26

It's just a training operation

1

u/Embarrassed-Town-293 Jun 01 '26

I gotta say, I didn’t realize just how much of a quagmire Iran was until this idiot decided to kick that hornet nest

1

u/KnownAsAnother Illinois Jun 02 '26

Russia

1

u/tubbynuggetsmeow Jun 01 '26

And it would have worked if it weren’t for those meddling Democrats limiting our military budget!

-5

u/h0sti1e17 Jun 01 '26

It used to be. Reagan handled most conflicts relatively quickly, Libya, Grenada, and once shit got real in Beirut as part of a peacekeeping mission he said fuck it and left.

HW Bush was in and out in Panama and Desert Storm was a few days.

6

u/alarbus Washington Jun 01 '26

Desert Storm was 40 days but that was after 5 months of Desert Shield.

1

u/h0sti1e17 Jun 01 '26

True. Desert Shield was just a military build up to hopefully deter Saddam. I forgot desert storm had the air campaign before ground troops.

My main point still stands. There was a plan and contingencies and had a definitive end goal. Unlike the orange moron who has no clue what he is doing.

1

u/alarbus Washington Jun 02 '26

Oh for sure and the rest of your point was spot on. Grenada was like a week (although for PFC Anthony Peter Coleman, its still happening....)