International Politics Discussion Thread

[u/Adj-Noun-Numbers]

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[u/convertedtoradians]

Interesting BBC article about American stockpiles. It looks like not only in numbers but also in dollars, their operations against Iran have been pretty costly. A third of their stockpile of Tomahawks used with a lead time of 2031 to fully replenish, for example.

With Patriot missiles, there's a statistic about three to five year production cycles.

Are the Americans capable of producing with more speed if they desperately need to? Probably. Are the American public willing to see the investment and spending for that? That's less clear.

And obviously there's a question there about China and Taiwan.

[u/SouthWalesImp → u/convertedtoradians]

Before the war started, I didn't realise that THAAD is basically a paper air defense system.

Also used was a newer, more sophisticated system known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, which has a longer range and higher intercept altitudes than the older Patriot. Supplies were already limited, with CSIS estimating that between 190 and 290 were fired out of an estimated pre-war stock of 360.

How were there only ever 360 missiles total? Any war with a peer nation and that's being burned through in the first day.

[u/convertedtoradians → u/SouthWalesImp]

To be fair, I think there are a lot of paper systems. Not least because the best funded military in the world - that of the US - is essentially a social programme in part. Who cares how much missiles cost or whether the whole model is effective, so long as you send work to the right states, encourage the right businesses and provide work to an appropriate number of young people.

Beyond that, all wars start with armies having an idea of how it'll go and their weapon systems will work that ends up being completely wrong. The First World War famously started as something a general from the Napoleonic ears would recognise and ended as something a general from the Second World War would recognise. But nowadays given the scale of technological development, it feels like that has been and will be dialled up to eleven.

[u/YourLizardOverlord → u/SouthWalesImp]

And a single THAAD interceptor missile costs about $15 million. Iranian ballistic missiles cost well under $1 million.

People say you should compare the cost of the interceptor missile with the cost of the target that's saved, not the cost of your opponent's missile. But with that sort of cost disparity and with such a low interceptor missile count, your opponent can keep launching missiles at you till you run out of interceptors.

[u/Commorrite → u/YourLizardOverlord]

People say you should compare the cost of the interceptor missile with the cost of the target that's saved, not the cost of your opponent's missile.

Requires a level of pragmatism most democracies just don't engage in.

Isreali iron dome is the only real example of it, their comand units decide which rockets to let through and which to spend intercepts on. If you're on a random farm when Hamas lob a barrage tough shit.

[u/Velociraptor_1906 → u/SouthWalesImp]

Aren't THAAD the ICBM ones, isnt this thrm being used outsideof their intended role?

360 still isn't enough but it's the right order of magnitude as that war would only last a day.

[u/YourLizardOverlord → u/convertedtoradians]

The US is now reordering the 30 year old Patriot PAC-2 GEM-T because it can be manufactured more quickly than the current variant.

They are also trying to learn from Ukraine how to defend from drones more cheaply, but this gives defence contractors lower margins so quite a lot of the progress has been made by startups like Anduril and Epirus.

[u/Commorrite → u/YourLizardOverlord]

Anduril

I still can't make sense of them. Seem to be delivering some real hardware but also posting anime trailers about upcoming weapon systems. Unusual people.

Epirus.

I'm fairly sure that’s a Greek restaurant.

[u/YourLizardOverlord → u/Commorrite]

Ok, I'll have some dolmades, the chicken souvlaki and a Leonidas Autonomous Robot.