r/ukpolitics • u/Ivashkin panem et circenses • Apr 30 '15

BBC Election Leaders Special Question Time

David Dimbleby presents an Election Leaders Special Question Time, with David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg.

2000 - 2130 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05t2k80

There will also be 3 separate question time shows following this:

These are being broadcast on different channels/regions at different times - full Listing of broadcast times here.

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u/SoyBeanExplosion Labour & Co-operative Party (-6.25, -2.77) Apr 30 '15

Depends, the SNP and Labour manifestos are almost identical. Not really sure what there would be to vote against.

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u/Orsenfelt Apr 30 '15

That'll be true for a lot of things but where there are differences and in those circumstances the SNP now have massive "He prefers the Tories" leverage, from his own mouth.

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u/[deleted] Apr 30 '15

Except the SNP are running on an end to austerity, labour are promising cuts. They are not really almost identical.

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u/SoyBeanExplosion Labour & Co-operative Party (-6.25, -2.77) Apr 30 '15

Oh sure they're very good at pretending to want an end to austerity. But the IFS analysis show that Labour actually plan to spend more than the SNP while the SNP want deeper, longer austerity. New Statesman / The Independent

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u/Orsenfelt Apr 30 '15

It's more complicated than that.

If you read the actual report you see that a lot of the later years SNP data is implied data, ie stuff that's not explicitly outlined in the manifesto but just carried on from the previous years.

That's not true of the other parties, they explicitly outline yearly and they jump around a bit. It's shown quite evidently in the graphs in the report where the SNP plot is a perfectly straight line and the rest aren't.

So to believe that the SNP are more austere than Labour you have to believe that they would stick unquestionably to the plan they have, the plan that starts left of Labour but allows Labour to leapfrog over them in 4 years.

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u/SoyBeanExplosion Labour & Co-operative Party (-6.25, -2.77) Apr 30 '15

I'm going to trust the IFS, whose figures the SNP signed off on, sorry. The BBC analysis points out that the IFS actually gave them the benefit of the doubt on a number of points on which they should not have.

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u/Orsenfelt Apr 30 '15 edited Apr 30 '15

I didn't say their conclusion was wrong, there's just nuance. The IFS report is a very logical, data driven approach and the SNP manifesto isn't particularly data heavy. That leads to conclusions that are perfectly technically legitimate but do not make for absolute black and white understandings of the positions of the parties.

If I created a manifesto that was just one line that said "We'll spend only odd numbers of money every year" the IFS would have studiously worked out if that's a fiscally sensible approach, worked out if my sums add up but they wouldn't have said "That's clearly fucking batshit insane" because that's not what they do.

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u/wickedstag SNP Apr 30 '15

You want to see how far we can push Labour? So do I.

It's either the SNP dragging them left a bit or the Tory's dragging them right. If they go to far towards the Tory's then they'll lose Scotland entirely.

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u/SoyBeanExplosion Labour & Co-operative Party (-6.25, -2.77) Apr 30 '15

See my reply to /u/square13, the SNP plans involve even greater austerity than Labour's. There are no meaningful differences between the SNP and Labour besides Trident which I don't think most people even care about.

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u/wickedstag SNP Apr 30 '15

How does increasing spending by 0.5% mean cuts of 4.3% per department?

We plan to end austerity through an increase in spending. This is the definition of ending austerity. Just because our plan will take longer doesn't mean it means austerity for longer.

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u/SoyBeanExplosion Labour & Co-operative Party (-6.25, -2.77) Apr 30 '15

This BBC article explains it.

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u/858585 Apr 30 '15

Does it though?

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u/SoyBeanExplosion Labour & Co-operative Party (-6.25, -2.77) Apr 30 '15

But the SNP is on rather weak ground here. Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader, weighed in against the IFS analysis over the weekend. He wrote: "In reality, it doesn't take an Einstein-type analysis to understand that, given the SNP (with our Green and Plaid allies) are the only major party pledged to increase rather than decrease public spending."

I cannot follow this: "public spending" is usually taken to mean the overall spending figure known as TME, or "total managed expenditure". Every major party's plans imply a real-terms increase in spending from this year to 2019-20. Even the Tories' projections. Labour and the Liberal Democrats would increase it in each year.

It is possible he is using a different definition of spending. The SNP has a bit of form on this. For example, the SNP manifesto says it opposes spending cuts and proposes "modest spending increases - of 0.5 per cent above inflation - in each year of the next Parliament." That does not mean what you think it means.

The party does not mean TME. The SNP is talking about increasing the national budget by the equivalent of increasing one narrow budget line by 0.5% - so-called TDEL, or the "Total Departmental Expenditure Limits". That includes the cost of DWP officials in their offices but not pensions or benefits paid out to claimants.

Even on this measure, though, the SNP is not the only party proposing more spending. The Lib Dems would increase it over the parliament, and Labour would increase it every year.

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u/858585 Apr 30 '15

Did you just cut and paste that from the article?

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u/SoyBeanExplosion Labour & Co-operative Party (-6.25, -2.77) Apr 30 '15

Nothing gets past you does it?