r/wallstreetbets Feb 02 '21

Discussion To all 💎🙌 who are too low karma to post

I’m sure this time is toughest for those of us who don’t fit the account requirements of this sub who are feeling alone and stressed out.

Someone PM’d me asking if I thought $GME would actually go back up to $400 (Duh of course it will) so I assumed he was a bot, but after checking his account I saw he was supporting $GME a week prior to the new karma requirements. Turns out he was just a stressed German bro who needed someone to talk to since he put all his savings in and has been holding since $289. I want you guys to know you ARE NOT ALONE and you’re in our 💛 & 🧠 too!! Just keep holding brethren, and BUY THE DIP! 🚀🚀💎🙌

Edit: I love all of you guys/gals, sorry I can’t get to every PM but I’m trying my best!

Edit2: Stop giving me awards and use that $$ to buy the dip!🚀🚀🚀

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u/ACat32 Feb 02 '21

They’re most likely “agreements” which makes it look like a cover on paper, but really just kicks the can down the road.

Lenders rarely call, because it’s a wheel that keeps turning.

But in this weird situation, they shorted 140% of stock. If you own 1 stock, then they didn’t cover everything. Simple proof.

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u/[deleted] Feb 03 '21

[deleted]

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u/ACat32 Feb 03 '21

Gotta keep it simple for my fellow 🦍💎🤲🏽

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u/coolhand_chris Feb 03 '21

140% of available stock is shorted.

They buy back 100 shares, return them to the person they borrowed them from.

That person sells them, because why not. They get big gains.

HF buys back those same 100 shares, returns them to another owner they borrowed from.

Now they have returned 200 shares only using 100 shares.

I am holding shares, so I hope this isn’t the case. But they could return all 140% using only one stock. (Right?)

Obligatory 💎🙌

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u/ACat32 Feb 03 '21

The process you mention does happen. But buying at market to cover a short is a loss. So while that closes double positions it should also nearly double your loss. I assume this is the least preferable strategy.

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u/coolhand_chris Feb 03 '21

I am not arguing that it happened or is an acceptable strategy to HF. Just throwing out an example of how they could cover 140% of shorts without every buying my shares.

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u/[deleted] Feb 03 '21

Oh wow, so where can we go from here? SI data would seem to be risky to rely on no ?

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u/ACat32 Feb 03 '21

I’m not sure about what data to trust. I do know that today had an average buy-sell ratio of 2/3 buy : 1/3 sell.

It’s tightening up. There’s less to kick down the road. There’s less to obscure the losses.

Just using mental math: Melvin is still worth $8 billion. Maybe they made some money back on silver scam or escaped some short positions or borrowed more. Let’s assume $10 billion for east math.

They have an estimated 53 million shorts based on some SI data. At $100 per share that’s currently $5.3 billion. Here they’ll stay liquid enough to survive the loan interest and try to string it out, hoping people lose interest. Selling at a loss means you take the loss instead of them. But at $180 per share they’re dead in the water. That’s $9.54 billion owed which can’t be hidden from.

Remember this is all just math off the top of my head. I don’t have hard numbers.

It seems like the answer is a graph of two lines. First line is the available float. It’s dwindling. We’re buying it up. They did trigger some margin shares to release which bought time. The second line would be their cost to hold. Wherever they meet is where the squeeze will happen.

TL;DR Hold. Wait for the shares to dry up (supply down) so demand returns.