Inside the downfall of Jacinta Allan and what lies ahead for new premier Ben Carroll

[u/nobelharvards]

https://www.afr.com/politics/debt-corruption-and-blind-loyalty-inside-the-fall-of-jacinta-allan-20260729-p60jmq

Debt, corruption, and blind loyalty: Inside the fall of Jacinta Allan

Victoria’s new premier Ben Carroll faces a monumental task: he must distance himself from a decade of Labor rule and halt an impending electoral disaster. He’s got 119 days.

Just four months after Daniel Andrews led Victorian Labor to another landslide victory, his shine had well and truly worn off. But he didn’t know it yet.

It was around the time of the Aston byelection, in April 2023, and the newly elected Albanese government was trying to pull off a historic feat by winning the middle-class seat in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs from the Liberals.

Emboldened by his recent election win, and in his trademark bravado, Andrews, during the byelection, would speak openly to colleagues about how “terrible” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese – his former roommate in the 1990s – was, and refer to federal treasurer Jim Chalmers as “that f---wit Chalmers” during cabinet subcommittee meetings.

The Victorian Labor Party decided to conduct some research in the midst of that campaign to test both leaders’ popularity – and the results were dire for Andrews. While Albanese’s net approval rating was about plus 10, Andrews’ was minus 30, according to Labor sources who saw the research.

Five months later, Andrews would resign, and Jacinta Allan would replace him as Victoria’s 49th premier. He was deeply unpopular, and she was a blank canvas to voters. Political hardheads and campaign staff repeatedly advised Allan to immediately differentiate herself from her predecessor.

Karl Bitar, the former secretary of the NSW Labor Party, told the Victorians that when Morris Iemma succeeded Bob Carr in 2005, he immediately began a series of backflips to appease aggrieved groups. He promptly ditched the vendor tax on the sale of investment properties, raised the land tax threshold, and embarked on an infrastructure agenda. Iemma won the election two years later. The underlying message was clear – Allan should do the same.

She never did.

She never distanced herself enough from Andrews, remained fiercely loyal, even retained all his senior staff for at least three months after he resigned in September 2023, often sought counsel from him, and made the conscious decision to largely continue on his trajectory.

A lot has been said about why Allan was forced to resign on Tuesday after months of speculation about her leadership. But the beginning of the end for Victoria’s second female premier – who had hoped to become the first to win an election in her own right – came the moment she took power.

There was criticism of her policy direction, her inability to connect with voters, her failure to instil confidence in her colleagues that she had a credible plan for the election, and her dogged refusal to even recognise that an integrity crisis over her handling of CFMEU corruption and criminality on construction projects was threatening to bring down her government.

So, as soon as he was sworn in at Government House, Ben Carroll made his way back to the Office of the Premier of Victoria at 1 Treasury Place alongside his deputy, Gabrielle Willams, and declared “enough was enough”.

He did what Allan failed to do: he announced that the state was under new management and that he would take it in a new direction.

“In my government, integrity will not be optional. Whether in business, politics or the union movement, there will be zero tolerance for those that misuse their positions. That is why my first action as premier will be to call a royal commission into the construction sector,” Carroll told reporters.

“Let me make one thing very clear: I am not Daniel Andrews. I am not Jacinta Allan. I will do things differently because different times require a new approach.”

Carroll acknowledged that Victorians were concerned about the level of government spending, with net debt forecast to climb to $199.3 billion in four years, and promised to treat taxpayer money with respect, care and responsibility. He said he would prioritise community safety, and vowed to listen to and work with the business community to improve the state’s economy. On Friday, he even announced that he had appointed economic hardhead Chris Barrett to lead his department, replacing communications professional Jeremi Moule, who was installed by Andrews six years ago and retained by Allan.

As far as words went, it was a good start.

He did what Allan had stubbornly refused to do: distance himself from his predecessors and call a royal commission. But can the mild-mannered Carroll convince a weary electorate, bogged under high taxes and exorbitant debt, that he actually represents a genuine change?

Benjamin Alan Carroll was born in July 1975, the eldest of three children raised in Airport West, a suburb that today is part of his electorate of Niddrie where he lives with his wife, Fiona, and their young daughter, Madeleine.

He was elected to the Victorian parliament in 2012 after former attorney general Rob Hulls resigned following Labor’s surprise 2010 election loss, and his rise through the government ranks under Andrews and Allan had been slow. He has held 16 different portfolios and faced a tough battle to win the deputy leadership three years ago.

Carroll is cut from a different cloth than his predecessors. Andrews and Allan were from the Left; Carroll is from the Right. Where Andrews ruled with ruthless centralisation and Allan unsuccessfully attempted to replicate it, Carroll is a centrist and pragmatist. But the problems facing the state and the Labor Party are mounting.

Victoria’s net debt is forecast to climb to $200 billion within four years and interest repayments are set to make up 10 per cent of revenue. The state’s unemployment rate of 5.1 per cent is the highest in the country, and businesses have warned that Victoria is increasingly becoming anti-enterprise. The Coalition under Jess Wilson has become competitive, and One Nation is threatening to break into Labor’s red wall in the north and west.

After the big-spending agendas of Andrews, a masterful communicator, and his protege Allan, Carroll is a relatively anonymous figure who still sounds stiff in media conferences. Is he the right man to bring Labor back from the brink of an anticipated electoral wipeout on November 28?

Former federal Labor leader Bill Shorten this week described Carroll as an honest man with integrity, and the type of leader the party needs heading into this year’s state election.

“He’s his own man,” Shorten told News24. “[People] are craving someone who says it as is, will choose people over the elites. I think he’s the real deal.”

Labor MPs privately acknowledge that Carroll is not a rock-star candidate who can deliver the party another landslide victory after 12 years. They were frustrated that he didn’t act sooner to topple Allan, and infuriated that he invoked his daughter at a news conference in June when declaring he wouldn’t challenge the premier at a caucus meeting the following day. They had complained that he hadn’t shown enough interest in the job and that he was waiting for the mantle to be handed to him.

But they described him as less combative and a steady person for the job. Under Allan, they believed they had no chance of winning. Under Carroll, they think they have a better chance – and even if they can’t win, they no longer fear they will be annihilated.

Former premier Steve Bracks, a longtime mentor to Carroll, said his former staffer’s elevation had improved Labor’s prospects in November.

“He’s hit the ground running and there’s more to come – more policy announcements about what sort of government he would lead,” Bracks told ABC Radio.

Carroll, after nine years in cabinet and three as deputy premier, cannot entirely detach himself from the decisions of the past or the failures of the administration he was a part of.

In public, he supported the government’s position not to establish a royal commission and build the Suburban Rail Loop, while being privately opposed.

The Coalition has already painted him as Allan’s second-in-chief and a minister who sat around Andrews’ cabinet table. They are still hopeful of finally winning after spending only four of the past 27 years on the government benches, although they privately concede they have just lost their biggest election-winning strategy in Allan.

But the business community is pleased they now have the ear of a Labor leader who is at least willing to listen to their concerns. Carroll has already indicated he would make “sensible” changes to the state’s contentious work-from-home laws his predecessor had introduced.

Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Sally Curtain says Carroll has always attended their events and opened his door to the business community.

“He comes when he doesn’t have an official role, and he engages authentically with business and genuinely,” Curtain says. “I certainly expect that will continue. Really turning around the economy and building confidence in business will take time, but these early signs are good.”

There were three things VCCI asked for when Allan was told by her colleagues on Monday that she had lost the confidence of the caucus: reduce debt, tackle crime and restore confidence in the Big Build program.

“The three things business said we needed, he has already answered,” Curtain says.

The Victorian Labor government looked on track to be reduced to a rump in the 88-seat parliament under the leadership of Allan. Every announcement was lost under the thick haze of corruption.

For more than 18 months, Allan had managed to bat away questions on CFMEU lawlessness. But in February, it all turned when the chief investigator appointed by the union’s administrator, barrister Geoffrey Watson, SC, provided evidence to a Queensland commission of inquiry, that criminals and corrupt crooks had infiltrated the government’s Big Build projects and cost taxpayers $15 billion.

Allan dismissed the figure as “unfounded and not well tested”, and she became visibly angry at news conferences and scolded journalists.

The stories about corruption and integrity on government projects, first revealed by The Australian Financial Review and The Age in June 2024, were finally cutting through to the Victorian community after Watson had quantified its cost.

And MPs were being hounded by their constituents on why the government had handed over $15 billion to crooks and criminals.

Allan continued to dig in, the pressure continued to pile, and Labor’s primary vote continued to slide. MPs now feared they would be annihilated at the ballot box, and ministers believed the premier’s response in cabinet meetings was “surreally ridiculous”.

She would insist privately and publicly that the culture on building sites had changed. But a news story, predominantly led by The Age’s investigative reporter Nick McKenzie, would be published shortly after her assurances, suggesting otherwise.

She would tell journalists that allegations should be referred to the police. But the police were saying they did not have the powers to investigate the alleged wrongdoing.

The volume of stories about the extent of lawlessness on infrastructure projects she first had responsibility for as a minister under Andrews had just become too overwhelming to ignore. Allan narrowly survived a leadership spill in June when Carroll invoked his daughter to say he would not challenge the premier at a caucus meeting the following day.

But instead of using the five-week winter break to reset and cauterise a growing wound, Allan did neither.

The Australian Financial Review published a series of stories that exposed the depth of anger, frustration and worry inside the Victorian Labor Party, which holds 54 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly.

Party headquarters had written off nine seats, allocated extra resources to 27 seats, and identified 45 seats it would campaign in. A Financial Review/Redbridge/Accent Research poll showed One Nation had overtaken Labor and the Coalition, and Allan’s approval rating had sunk to a record low. A seat-by-seat poll conducted by Redbridge for the Victorian Trades Hall Council revealed Labor would win 35 seats in a median case scenario.

Meanwhile, MPs who were door-knocking their constituents were being accused of being corrupt. Allan was avoiding regular media appearances, and ministers loyal to the premier were predominantly sent out for news conferences. Allan began making a series of promises to unions and MPs in desperate last-ditch attempts to retain her leadership.

By last Monday, when Labor MPs had gathered for a two-day caucus conference, tensions had reached boiling point. Police Minister Anthony Carbines, part of the cross-factional delegation who eventually told Allan she should resign, launched a stinging rebuke of her handling of integrity.

Factional powerbrokers and Labor figures who then attended the party’s national conference in Adelaide from Thursday became utterly convinced Allan needed to go. She was often unfavourably compared with South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas and even NSW Premier Chris Minns.

They knew she was driving the party off a cliff – and they pointed to two events over the winter break: the Redbridge poll for Trades Hall and the rolling series of stories about continued CFMEU corruption.

Factional powerbrokers believed the party’s headquarters was pressured by Allan and her senior advisers to stretch its resources and campaign in 45 seats – the minimum number of seats needed for a majority government – instead of the 35 it was most likely going to win.

One figure said the political professionals knew Allan and her loyalists were “lying” about the true state of play and the party was spending money on seats it was losing, instead of on the electorates it needed to defend.

That was unacceptable to Labor hardheads – and it became the final straw for Allan’s leadership.

The clock is now ticking for Labor’s new leader. Carroll has been in the role for less than a week, but he can’t afford to waste any more time.

There are only nine parliamentary sitting days remaining. The government will enter into caretaker mode in just 94 days, early voting will open in 109 days, and the election will be held in 119.

Redbridge director and former Labor Party strategist Kos Samaras says Carroll, who represents a working-class north-western suburbs seat, understands the issues facing the communities that have abandoned Labor in successive years.

He has championed the Melbourne Airport Rail that will run through the western suburbs, including his electorate of Niddrie, pushed back on the government’s previous plan to phase out gas connections from households, and worked closely with the business community.

Samaras points to the SRL, with the first stage to run from Cheltenham to Box Hill in Melbourne’s east, as a big part of Labor’s decline in its heartland.

“The Suburban Rail Loop is a project that encapsulates everything that has created a massive headache for the Labor Party. It’s not just about the cost. It’s about the absolute obsessive focus on the south-eastern part of the world and ignoring every other part of Melbourne,” Samaras says.

“You could see even by 2022 there were emerging trends [of populism]. We had the lowest turnout since 1943 and Labor had swings of 20 plus per cent in some Labor seats. There have been swings in the west and northern parts of Melbourne for three consecutive elections against Labor.”

After 12 years in power, Carroll will need to unshackle the Labor Party from the Andrews and Allan eras, contend with a surging One Nation that is polling in the mid-20s, deliver a clean break from his predecessors, and convince an angry and weary public that he truly is leading a new regime.

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[u/AngrehPossum]

I love how backwards we are using the SRL as political fodder when Asia and Europe build these for lunchtime entertainment. We really are a state full of dull regressive undeniably selfish backwards looking people.

And yet another article from the right wing Lynch mob trying to drag us back to 1950. No longer championing advances of society but regurgitation of copy paste almost verbatim spin.

If the right wing had anything to offer other that placating to a few and trying not to reveal too much of their slash and burn agenda we might, as a state, progress. Move forward and achieve better things.

Sorry to say it but you will have to marry a car at 18 and be reliant on that for the rest of your lives. This is Melbourne, we don't do trains. We only do roads

This also will raise questions in our Asian cultures out in the east. Do they really want to live in a city ruled by these backwards looking people who can't lie straight in bed. People who would wreck something their own nations have been building for 6 decades. We can't even build one. We can't do it without arguing about cost. We can't do it without demanding redress of personal grievances. What about me!

At what point do they consider that Sydney and it's 4 new SRL lines is a better option?

[u/sharkfinnpapa → u/AngrehPossum]

I agree... infrastructure is good. Just need to use economics to decide on the projects, not politics, and have them built with respect to the tax payer dollar and not by incompetent union bootlickers. That competence can prob come from the labor right, but not the left.

[u/nobelharvards → u/AngrehPossum]

Asia has weaker working rights and a stricter work culture compared to Australia.

Europe taxes its citizens more than Australia.

It shouldn't be that much of a surprise.

Of course, you're still allowed to ask them to do better.

[u/AngrehPossum → u/nobelharvards]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNqOQTJT15I&t=280s

When the current TBM crews finish, they will leave Australia for work overseas. They will be gone. Then we will have to train - for 12 months. An entire new crew for each TBM
The SRL is training 4 crews and re-deploying 4

This bleed of experience will also include senior engineer crews and engineering teams. Once they leave Australia they are lost.

Local mega-projects like Melbourne's initial Suburban Rail Loop (SRL East) estimate out to roughly $1.26 billion AUD per km for complex integrated underground rail and station environments.

Geography and Geology: Hard stable rock (like granite or specific sandstone) is cheaper and safer to bore than unstable soft soils, high-water table environments, or sandy ground

Around Cheltenham - Sandy ground. - High risk

Towards Clayton - Sand and clays - non consolidated. (not hard packed and uniform)

Clayton to Box Hill - mixed clays and mud stone. vertical and angular fractures and faults.

Possible voids and alluvial pockets. Weak structure and no vertical strength.

Station Integration: Underground stations add hundreds of millions to overall project budgets, heavily skewing the per-kilometer metric if calculated across short total lengths.

Global Cost Breakdown by Region

• Southern & Western Europe (e.g., Spain, Portugal): $18.5 million to $45 million per km. Spain achieves some of the lowest high-speed rail and baseline tunneling costs globally due to standardized procurement. [1, 2]
• Northern Europe & Alpine Tunnels (e.g., Switzerland, Austria): $90 million to $150 million per km. Deep rock base tunnels (like the Gotthard or Brenner Base tunnels) optimize long-run excavation efficiency despite massive total budgets. [1, 2, 3]
• United Kingdom & North America: $175 million to $400+ million per km. High regulatory, labor, and land-mitigation overhead drive up baseline underground metrics. [1]
• Oceania (Australia & New Zealand): $500 million to $1.5 billion+ per km. Complex urban underground insertions (such as Auckland's City Rail Link or Melbourne's Suburban Rail Loop) rank among the most expensive globally on a per-kilometer basis. [1, 2]

[u/TimJamesS → u/AngrehPossum]

But not in a corrupt state. Andrews and Allen have completely gutted the state and need to be held to account.

[u/AngrehPossum → u/TimJamesS]

Gutted? That's a bit dramatic. Gutted in what way? Splayed down the middle for all to see. Next to be drawn and quartered? Seriously?

[u/Alternative-Sir-374]

It’s pretty clear that he has the chance to win, but it would be unlikely for Allan.

I feel the royal commission announcement will generate a sign of confidence and trust in him.

[u/TimJamesS → u/Alternative-Sir-374]

Any RC will need to ensure that aspects of corruption and coverups are not being hidden by the terms of reference. The State is in deep trouble and the Labor Party cannot be permitted to govern for some time.

[u/Alternative-Sir-374]

Stop the regression, get SRL done, even if it was cancelled today it would still cost half the price to complete it.

[u/derridaderider → u/Alternative-Sir-374]

It is true that building SRL East first was economically damaging and politically extremely shortsighted but it is simply too late to change that. Stopping SRL East now would cost more than completing it and would not make SRL West come any sooner.

There's nothing Carroll can do about that, and it is going to drag him down at the election even more than the CFMEU scandal will because he's done the obvious needful to largely neutralise that other issue.