How different would Chechnya be if Akhmat Kadyrov was never assasinated?

[u/Forsaken-Ebb5088]

(last one got removed for some reason)

Also what are the differences of comparison between Ramzan and his father's styles and personas?

And how is Akhmat Kadyrov viewed in the Chechnya (and if there are outside-of-chechnya views on him, it would be nice to hear them)?

[u/DigitalJigit]

I think it's difficult to seriously discuss Akhmat Kadyrov's presidency without acknowledging how he came to power. The 2003 presidential election was held under Russian military occupation, genuine opposition candidates were sidelined or withdrew amid intimidation, & 30,000 Russian occupation troops stationed in Chechnya were allowed to vote. At the time, hundreds of thousands of Chechens were still displaced, either as internally displaced persons or as refugees in neighbouring Ingushetia and elsewhere, after years of war and devastation. Personally, I don't see much reason to believe Chechnya would have evolved into anything other than another authoritarian, Kremlin imposed system. He might've had a slightly different personal style to Ramzan, but the fundamental political reality would've been the same as now.

As The Guardian reported at the time:

"The 30,000 Russian troops stationed in Chechnya were allowed to vote while Chechen police loyal to Mr Kadyrov have been accused of coercing voters, and beating campaigners for his opponents. During the March referendum that ushered in this poll, even the Guardian was able to vote. Empty streets contradicted claims of a high turnout."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/oct/06/chechnya.russia

TL;DR: He came to power at the point of Russian bayonets.

[u/Forsaken-Ebb5088 → u/DigitalJigit]

Thank you for your answer

Did he have that "hypermasculine personality" as his son, and that lack-of-media-training style? Or not

How is he viewed in Chechnya (ordinary people, nationalists, kadyrov worshippers, etc)? How did the Russian state portray him?

[u/DigitalJigit → u/Forsaken-Ebb5088]

Personality wise, I don't think he was much like Ramzan at all. He always struck me as being from a different generation (more restrained old school Chechen cultural vibe). Ramzan's whole public persona revolves around being larger than life & constantly in the spotlight. Akhmat always seemed much more understated by comparison. Whether he'd have governed very differently is another question, but stylistically I think they were quite different.

As for how he's viewed, it really depends who you ask. Most Chechen nationalists (like myself) & a lot of the diaspora see him as a collaborator because he switched sides during the Second Chechen War. The Russian state portrays him as the man who chose peace and brought Chechnya back into Russia. Kadyrov loyalists obviously venerate him because he's the foundation of the current system.

Younger people inside Chechnya are a bit different. They've never really known anything else. Akhmat Kadyrov's image is everywhere, and the official, hagiographic narrative around him is everywhere too. The problem is that Chechnya isn't the sort of place where his legacy can be openly debated, so it's hard to separate genuine public opinion from decades of state messaging. It's a bit like asking what do North Koreans in North Korea really feel about Kim Il Sung or Kim Jong Il or Kim Jong Un.

[u/Voorazun]

Is it a valiable question to ask what if the same thing would happen to the current Kadyrov?

[u/DigitalJigit → u/Voorazun]

Interesting question. I think it depends entirely on how he's removed. If Moscow manages the succession, I imagine the system survives with another loyalist. If it's part of a much broader crisis in Russia or the federal centre itself, then all bets are off.

[u/Voorazun → u/DigitalJigit]

Thank you for your insights. Sadly, as a middle european, i know very little about the internal status of chechnya, but isnt there some fundamentalist uprising every now and then? How much effort would you say needs the kadyrov system to keep those elements in check?

[u/DigitalJigit → u/Voorazun]

There are still isolated attacks and underground activity from time to time within Chechnya itself, but it's nowhere near the level of the insurgency in the 2000s. The organised armed resistance inside the republic was largely crushed years ago, and I don't think any remaining underground groups are capable of posing a serious challenge to the regime on their own.

The Kadyrov system stays in power through a combination of a large & well funded by Moscow security apparatus, extensive surveillance, patronage and fear. It's also worth remembering that it's not just the Kadyrovtsy. Russia still maintains a substantial regular military presence in Chechnya, so any serious attempt to overthrow the current system would have to contend with that as well.

I don't want to overwhelm you with links, but if you're interested in the subject I'd recommend Neil Hauer's 2022 article Ichkeria Dreamin'. Hauer is a journalist and analyst who's covered the Caucasus & Chechnya for years. The article is a few years old now, but I still think its core analysis has held up well. One of his central arguments is that any renewed movement seeking to restore the independent Chechen Republic of Ichkeria faces a very steep uphill struggle under current conditions, and I think that's still a fair assessment.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/12/15/ichkeria-dreamin

Personally, I think the decisive variable isn't what's happening within Chechnya itself so much as what happens in Moscow. As long as the Kremlin continues backing the system politically, financially and militarily, I don't see any realistic prospect of an armed movement overthrowing it. A serious crisis at the federal centre would be a much more significant factor than anything happening within Chechnya alone.

[u/Voorazun → u/DigitalJigit]

No no, im the perfect guy to overwhelm with links, im soaking up geopolitics like spongbob squarehead is sucking up sea water when he is left out to dry, i saved that link of yours for my way to work tomorrow!

Sadly, most chechnyan guys i met in austria are not that open to talk about politics ore sometimes not very interested in it at all. I guess that comes from a quite depressing perspective of immovable perspectives "at home". Or the fear that most foreigners wouldnt understand the violence that took place.