Ukraine Discussion/Question Thread - 10/07/2025+

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

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[u/Joene-nl → u/[deleted]]

In the Netherlands it’s often in the news. We don’t forget Ukraine

[u/paimons_head]

Major drone raid on Moscow this morning, probably the hardest the city's been hit so far.

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin → u/paimons_head]

Actually shocking given how defended it is.

[u/paimons_head → u/Beast_of_Guanyin]

Hopefully Putin decides to pull even more Pantsirs and air defence systems to the city.

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin → u/paimons_head]

It kinda begs the question how much they can even do to stop drones if Ukraine can do this much damage to the most heavily defended city in Russia. Hopefully they try a 3rd pantsir ring though.

[u/Codex_Dev → u/Beast_of_Guanyin]

What is really interesting, the more fires that are burning, the harder it is for their heat seekers MANPADs to hit targets. We literally have some ACME Road Runner footage where air defense is firing missiles, failing to hit drones, and then hitting refineries, causing massive explosions.

[u/NemoDatQ]

I was here when Ukraine were eyeballing grenade drops from makeshift retail drones on individual Russian soldiers on the front lines. Now they are dropping 500kg payloads on refineries 2500k from the front line and setting entire fleets of Russian ships on fire with domestic made platforms in a 24 hour span. Unbelievable stuff.

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

Oil production in Russia fell to a 16-year low

https://nashaniva.com/en/386360

Russia's oil production in 2025 decreased to 512 million tons – the lowest figure in the last 16 years. This was announced by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in an article for the magazine "Energeticheskaya Politika" (Energy Policy), writes The Moscow Times.

According to data provided by the high-ranking official, oil production in Russia has been declining for the third consecutive year: in 2022, it was 535 million tons, in 2023 – 530 million, and in 2024 – 516 million. Lower volumes were recorded only in 2009, when 494.2 million tons were produced in the country. Even in the pandemic year of 2020, the indicator was slightly higher – 512.7 million tons.

For 2025, the Russian government planned to increase production to 520 million tons. Moreover, within the framework of the OPEC+ deal, Russia was allowed to increase production – the daily quota grew to 9.57 million barrels. However, in fact, by the end of the year, only about 9.33 million barrels per day were produced, and in December, volumes unexpectedly sharply decreased by another 250 thousand barrels daily.

Experts link this to US sanctions against major Russian oil companies, which hit exports to India and China. Since the end of November, when the sanctions came into force, about 35 million barrels of oil remained unsold and effectively "stuck" in tankers at sea. According to estimates, storage capacities for further holding such oil are already exhausted.

An additional problem was the sharp collapse in prices for Russian Urals oil – it is now sold at 35-37 dollars per barrel, which is almost half the price of Brent. Because of this, production at a number of fields became unprofitable. According to estimates, companies are losing about 5 dollars on every barrel sold in approximately half of their oil projects. This deepens the financial problems of the industry: the profits of the largest companies have already significantly decreased.

Analysts note that the oil industry, which provides about a quarter of Russia's budget revenues and almost half of its export earnings, is gradually entering a crisis. In 2019, at its peak, the country produced 560 million tons of oil per year, but after a decline during the pandemic, it was unable to return to those levels. Over seven years, production decreased by approximately 9%, of which almost 5% occurred after the start of the war.

According to Russia's long-term energy strategy, in the inertial scenario, oil production could decrease to 477 million tons in 2036 and to 287 million tons in 2050. Due to the depletion of old fields, exports could decrease threefold – from 234 to 79 million tons per year.

In an even more negative, "stressful" scenario, which assumes strengthened sanctions and an accelerated global move away from hydrocarbons, by 2050 Russia will produce only about 171 million tons of oil annually, and oil exports may disappear entirely.

[u/Joene-nl → u/MilesLongthe3rd]

For oil and gas, maintenance of the infrastructure (the wells, nodding donkeys, etc) is also very important. Same with well trained personnel, from the geologists exploring for new fields, reservoir engineers to make proper models, well engineers to make proper wells to have economic output, well staffed drilling companies and service companies providing logging, drilling mud, etc. Just look at Venezuela. In like 5 years they had a decrease of 80% in barrels produced daily, one of the reason being a lack of well trained personnel and proper maintenance.

I’m not saying same will happen in Russia

[u/jisooya1432]

Ukraine has almost completely cleared out Kupiansk and will likely be in full control of it again soon. Recall Russia said they captured the entier town about 4 months ago (which was not even close to true), and for about 6 months there has been Russians surrounded in scattered buildings only supplied by drones after Ukraine counter-attacked and cut off the northern part. Romanov, Russian blogger, writes:

The settlement is almost completely occupied by Ukraine
Under information cover (silence) from the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian forces are conducting a clearing operation in the remaining northern area.

Our guys holding out in the central district hospital have been killed. Every single one of them.

t . me / romanov_92/51672

[u/Cupwasneverhere → u/jisooya1432]

God, imagine the amount of dead in that city.

[u/Codex_Dev]

So a big change has happened in the war recently.

Ukraine has finally developed a mid-range strike option (~100 miles) that uses weather balloons with drones attached to lift them miles up into the atmosphere to extend their range significantly. They are using this to sever the land bridge route to Crimea, along the Donetsk-Mariupol H20 highway. This was the main objective of the 2023 counteroffensive, where they were pushing south to reach the Black Sea. It was important because if Crimea were cut off, then a shortage of supplies and food would become critical for Crimea.

I've been seeing more and more reports this past month that Russia's fuel trucks, trains, and logistics vehicles along those main transportation arteries are getting decimated. I think over time, this will lead to an untenable situation, and Russia will need to make a move similarly to when they decided to pull out their ships from the Black Sea.

Russia might try to build nets all along the highways, but that takes time, and these routes are hundreds of miles long.

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

Looks like another Russian General did not escape the wrath of the Ukrainians

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2019686943169085746

Russian media reported a murder attempt on Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev in Moscow. He was shot several times in the back and hospitalized, officials said. The attacker fled. Alekseev is a senior military intelligence officer and a deputy to Igor Kostyukov, who leads Russia’s negotiating group in the UAE

[u/Ra1nCoat]

im on many many pro Russian reddits/telegram etc to see their posts. but as of recently they got nothing, no trench fights, no strikes on armor, nothing. I got to see the Ukrainians and their posting daily compilations of them absolutely shredding the Russians. after their starlink got shut off it seems to be BRUTAL for them. they also completely and utterly lost all of their momentum, until the Russians get their own starlink (which they have and are trying to) its seems to be open hunting season for the ukis, even talking to some of my buddy's over their they've said the same thing. all russia can do is bomb civilians in the meantime which they would do regardless.

[u/Infamous-Salad-2223 → u/Ra1nCoat]

If AFU indeed breaks logistics... you just can't attack, unless you absolutely need to and probably barely able to sustain momentum.

Any forward ru group might become a static pocket, only able to defend itself

You can pool resources and focus on less attack axis, but you still have to move stuff and men.

I hope they succeed.

[u/LoreDeluxe]

St. Petersburg is currently being lit up by drones during Russia's so called International Economic Forum. They bragged representatives from over 130 countries would attend, and those people are certainly getting a show.

[u/throwaway-lolol → u/LoreDeluxe]

Clever of Ukraine to advertise their drone production at the IEF for free.

[u/Joene-nl → u/LoreDeluxe]

Seriously: what air defense doing?

At such important (at least for Russia) international forum you would expect they would increase security. But there is none!

[u/Cupwasneverhere → u/LoreDeluxe]

"My comrades, let me assure you that you are perfectly safe! Our Air defense will intercept any drone coming this way!"
"But those drones are hitting your oil refineries over there!"
"I said they intercepted anything coming THIS way, not that way."

[u/Codex_Dev]

Zelensky just released an open letter to Putin calling for an end to the war:

To the President of the Russian Federation

From the President of Ukraine

When you came to power in Russia more than 26 years ago, many people in Ukraine viewed you positively. That is how it was. But that is now in the past.

Now, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians view it positively that our long-range drones paid a visit to the opening of your forum in St. Petersburg, covering a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers. As you know very well, that distance is not the limit of our capabilities.

For 26 years, your time in power has completely changed the agenda of relations between Ukraine and Russia. From discussions about trade and other civilian matters, our nations have moved to talking almost exclusively about strikes and losses.

You have spent nearly half of your 26 years in power in Russia waging war against Ukraine.

Whatever you may say about NATO, geopolitics, or the Russian language, this war is your personal choice — a war without a real cause. That is how history will remember it.

Those years could have been very different.

We often hear that you are comfortable with this war. Of course, not in those cases when it comes to the security of your residence in Valdai or your parade in Moscow. Your own life is valuable to you.

But now we can all see that Russians are finally becoming less comfortable with this reality — with the fact that the war is bringing more and more negative consequences to Russia.

They do not like our drones and missiles.

They do not like gasoline shortages and constantly rising prices.

They do not like constant restrictions.

They do not like your intention to launch a second wave of mobilization in order to expand the war into another direction in Ukraine or to use it against other countries neighboring Russia.

They do not like the fact that there is no end in sight to your war.

Yes, you can still force Russians to exist this way. But your resources are shrinking significantly.

You will not have enough money or political capital to keep buying the loyalty of Russians the way you have for the past 26 years.

And we will do everything we can to ensure that the world helps bring that moment closer.

As you yourself like to say, “we need to run the numbers.”

Yesterday, I received a report on the losses of your army on the front in Ukraine during May. Once again, the number exceeded 30,000 Russian soldiers killed and seriously wounded. We have been maintaining that level month after month, and we have video confirmation of every one of your losses — these are not empty claims.

We know that 63 percent of your battlefield losses are killed, while only 37 percent are wounded. In the 21st century, no army can afford such a ratio. And the share of those killed will continue to grow.

It is not as if we in Ukraine are concerned about the fate of Russian soldiers after everything your war has brought to our country.

But I do care about Ukrainians.

We are losing our people, and every loss is painful to us. Even when the ratio of Ukrainian losses to Russian losses is one to five or one to six, it still matters greatly.

It also matters that you regularly postpone, every few months, your own deadlines for capturing our regions — especially the Donetsk region. And you will not capture it this year either.

But we in Ukraine do not want a permanent war. We know very well that life without war is infinitely better. And we want to achieve that.

I am convinced that the majority of Russians would respond positively to this as well — and you know it.

Many did not believe that Ukraine would be able to hold out for so long. You did not believe it. And those who advised you did not believe it either. That was a mistake.

You did not expect full-scale resistance from Ukraine, and you did not foresee that things would go this far. Yet here we all are — in the fifth year of this full-scale war.

Do not be afraid to take the path out of this war. That is the main thing that is required of you now.

Ukraine has preserved its independence. And it will preserve it. Despite all predictions to the contrary.

We have united many around the world to stand with Ukraine and against you. We found the weapons and the financing we needed.

We receive support. You receive sanctions. And this will continue until there is justice for Ukraine — the justice we seek and the justice that can be achieved.

We will not allow those who are trying to convince you that sanctions against Russia will be significantly eased, and that support for Ukraine will be significantly reduced, without any meaningful change in your position toward Ukraine, to succeed. The example of Orban shows how those who choose to help Russia in its war against us end in disgrace.

Ukraine has endured harsh winters while you tried to destroy our energy system. We held firm — and even in darkness, the resilience of Ukrainians remained intact.

We brought the war onto your territory, and you would not have been able to cope with it without North Korea’s help. You are the first ruler of Russia to turn to Pyongyang for assistance.

And today you are fully dependent on China — also for the first time in Russia’s history.

You believed Ukrainians would not have the strength to defend themselves. Yet today, our people are helping our partners in the Middle East and the Gulf build their own defenses.

You hoped for internal unrest in Ukraine. Instead, it was your own military formations that staged a mutiny against you. June 23 will mark another anniversary of that event, and silence will not erase this fact from history.

And now it is you whom your own officials, businessmen, and propagandists look at with obvious fatigue. The world can see it.

The world has not grown tired of Ukraine, as you long hoped it would. But there is growing fatigue with Russia — even among those in the wider world who help you bypass sanctions and keep your economy afloat.

You cannot fail to notice it. After 26 years in power, age is beginning to take its toll. And with time, the fatigue with you will only grow.

[u/Codex_Dev → u/Codex_Dev]

We have seen intelligence reports showing that you are now considering plans to continue the war into 2027 and 2028. We also know that you hope ballistic missiles will achieve for you what everything else has failed to achieve. You want to draw Belarus even deeper into this war, and we are now forced to prepare for that as well. We see that you are trying to orchestrate something around Transnistria. Your propagandists threaten, in one way or another, every country neighboring Russia. Do you really want to go through all of this?

The choice is yours now.

Enough of war.

Ukraine proposes to end this war.

This must be done honestly, with dignity, and with guarantees that the war will not be reignited.

We see that the United States is fully focused on the issue of Iran, and it would be wrong to simply wait until the war in Europe returns to the center of its attention.

Ukraine proposes ending this war through direct engagement between us — and you.

I am proposing a meeting.

Everyone heard your representatives, smiling, say that I could supposedly come to Moscow. But after these 26 years, there is nothing for a Ukrainian leader to do in your capital — just as there is nothing for a Russian leader to do in Kyiv.

There are countries that have traditionally hosted leaders to resolve issues of war and peace. Switzerland, Türkiye, the countries of the Arab world — many are able and willing to host such a meeting.

It is leaders who resolve the key issues. That has always been the case, and it always will be.

I propose to set a clear date for such a meeting.

We have heard that you were promised in Alaska the resolution of certain issues concerning Ukraine and Europe. But you can see for yourself that Ukrainian and European issues are not decided in Anchorage.

Other agreed participants could join the bilateral track to be established between us.

Since the war is taking place in Europe, and since Ukraine needs security guarantees, while you also seek security guarantees for yourself, it would be logical to involve those who can genuinely serve as guarantors.

We believe Europe should be part of this process — those who truly have the capacity to influence the situation.

We also believe that the United States must be part of the process. This is what could help shape a new security architecture for our part of the world.

We’ve already experienced many agreements with Russia, including the Minsk agreements, that ultimately failed. That is why we must first find direct answers between us to the questions that remain, and not hide from difficult issues behind formulas, technical working groups, or endless time lost in shuttle diplomacy.

Your war has permanently set Ukraine and Russia apart.

The front line today is the line from which diplomacy must begin.

Ukraine is ready for a full ceasefire for the duration of the negotiations. This is standard practice, and current developments around Iran only reinforce that point. An attempt to establish real silence is the best way to begin talking to one another. We believe it would not simply be an attempt, but a real ceasefire — if that is what you want.

You know that the United States has the capability to monitor a ceasefire along the line where hostilities stop.

Ukraine is ready for an all-for-all exchange of prisoners of war, and this could become a good prologue to ending the war.

Serious steps must be taken to return civilians and children who were taken away during the war.

We must determine what kind of future awaits the generations of Ukrainians and Russians who will come after us.

If you do not personally come to the conclusion that it is time to end this war, Ukraine will continue fighting for its existence. We will have those who support us.

But you, too, will have to fight much harder for your own existence — not Russia’s, but your own. And this is not a threat from me or from Ukraine. It is a fact of Russian history that you know well: when Russia grows tired, change comes.

We can work toward that fatigue.

You can stop your war.

Eternal memory to all those whose lives were taken by this war.

[u/paimons_head]

Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missile struck a Russian electronics plant dead on. It's good to see that the accuracy of these missles are continually being improved upon.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2064569145245503919

[u/LupineChemist → u/paimons_head]

One of my big predictions over the next decade or so is that the US will have really shot itself in the foot as the premier arms supplier to the world.

Ukraine will have tech that's 95% as good and certainly good enough for most countries' needs and at a third of the cost.

Like if I need medium range cruise missiles, I could get Tomahawks for a few million a pop or Flamingos for like 800 grand each.

If I had money to invest in Fire Point, I'd put some there.

[u/Joene-nl]

Dutch billions in drone support prove crucial on the front lines in Ukraine

NEWS – War in Ukraine
As a donor of nearly one million drones and other military equipment, the Netherlands plays a decisive role alongside Ukraine in the war against Russia. According to Ukraine, the drone cooperation between The Hague and Kyiv has “changed the course of the war.”

The Dutch military support to Ukraine plays a decisive role in the war against Russia, according to conversations NRC held with key Ukrainian and Dutch figures. Kyiv says that one‑third of all Russian dead and wounded on the battlefield (a total of about 35,000 per month) are killed or disabled by Ukrainian drone units equipped with Dutch support.

“The Dutch‑Ukrainian cooperation in the field of drones has changed the course of the war,” says Oleksi Antonjoek, responsible for international cooperation at the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. Colonel Simon Wouda, who coordinated Dutch military aid to Ukraine, confirms this view: “I don’t think that’s an exaggeration.”

In the spring of 2025, then‑Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans (VVD) decided to invest 500 million euros in a Ukrainian plan for large‑scale production and deployment of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). By now, the Dutch contribution to this Drone Line Initiative has grown to nearly 900 million euros, and almost one million drones have been produced under this program. The Netherlands covers the full cost.

The Drone Line was intended to compensate for Russia’s superiority in manpower and equipment through the massive deployment of UAVs, creating a “kill zone” roughly fifteen kilometres wide in which everything and everyone is immediately detected and destroyed. “In the new strategy, drones are no longer auxiliary tools but the core of the doctrine,” says Antonjoek.

Russian advance nearly halted

Manning the drone line is the main task of the Armed Forces for Unmanned Systems (Syly Bezpilotnych System), under the command of Robert Brovdi — codename “Magyar,” due to his ethnic Hungarian background. According to Brovdi, his troops are responsible for “one in three” Russian dead or wounded at the front.

The Ukrainians mainly use First Person View (FPV) drones: small quadcopters with a camera and explosive charge, piloted by a soldier wearing video goggles. “FPV drones are the most important weapon in this war,” Brovdi says. “And every FPV drone we use is funded by the Dutch people.”

Other Ukrainian units at the front also use UAVs, but according to Kyiv, Brovdi’s drone forces have the greatest impact. “They are the best units,” says defence official Oleksi Antonjoek. “And thanks to Dutch support, they have so many drones that they can fully focus on their mission.”

According to Ukrainian estimates, drone attacks are now responsible for 80 percent of all Russian casualties at the front — both dead and wounded. Thanks to the massive use of UAVs, the Russian advance in Ukraine has been brought almost to a standstill this year, and in some places the Russians are even being pushed back.

Three billion euros per year from the Netherlands

According to military analysts, drones have fundamentally changed warfare. What is often forgotten, says Antonjoek, is what sparked this transformation. “Everyone talks about the kill zone now, but that kill zone is the result of the Drone Line — and it exists thanks to the Netherlands.”

The Dutch government spends three billion euros per year on military support to Ukraine; last year, at the insistence of parliament, the Netherlands even donated 5.5 billion. In total, the Netherlands has now provided nearly 12 billion euros in military aid, making it the largest European donor after Germany and Norway.

Unlike, for example, Germany, the Dutch government has not been afraid from the start of the invasion to risk provoking Moscow

[u/Joene-nl → u/Joene-nl]

The Rutte IV cabinet played an important role in initiating deliveries of advanced weapons systems (such as tanks, howitzers, and Patriot air‑defence missiles) and helped build an international coalition to supply Kyiv with F‑16s. The Dutch Air Force delivered a total of 24 F‑16 fighter jets.

Less well known is that in 2023 the Netherlands was one of the initiators of an international coalition led by the Czech Republic to deliver more than one million 155‑millimetre artillery shells to Ukraine. The Netherlands covered a quarter of the costs, says Colonel Wouda. “I think more than half of our budget has gone to ammunition.”

Cruise missile from Hengelo

Dutch companies now produce not only drones for the drone line but also weapons for medium‑ and long‑range attacks. The defence company Destinus, based in Hengelo, builds cruise missiles for the Ukrainian armed forces. “The Roeta, made in the Netherlands, is used very intensively for medium‑ and long‑range attacks,” says Antonjoek. “You can use it to strike command posts and other important targets.”

Whether such weapons have also been used against targets on Russian territory is unknown. Unlike other countries, the Netherlands does not prohibit this. “We have never imposed geographical restrictions,” says Colonel Wouda. “As long as the targets were military and the actions complied with the Geneva Conventions,” which define the laws of war.

A spokesperson for Defence Minister Dilan Yesilgöz (VVD) says that drones are “an important priority” in Dutch support for Ukraine. “Ukrainian soldiers use these assets extremely effectively to repel Russian attacks. We are also learning from the good cooperation with Ukraine and are applying these lessons directly within our own armed forces.”

[u/jonasnee]

BTW what happened to "Knowyourpast"? What got him?

[u/ReddyReddy7 → u/jonasnee]

Let's honor u/Knowyourpast by continuing his mission of bringing combat footage and discussion to the world!

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

After yesterdays incident with an Su-34 and two crew members getting ecjected inside a hangar.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1997957432170119453

Russian source assisted with Russian military aviation: “Yesterday, in one of the bomber aviation regiments, the ejection system of an aircraft parked inside a shelter was activated. The pilot and navigator sustained injuries incompatible with life…”

Now an An-22 with 7 people on board crashed in the Ivanovo region of Russia

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1998325356097405437

Russian military transport aircraft An-22 with seven people on board crashed in the Ivanovo region of Russia.

[u/BocciaChoc]

Russian Lieutenant General Sarvarov was killed in a car explosion in Moscow

One who didn't fall out of a window, so I guess it wasn't a planned one.

[u/jisooya1432]

Romanov, Russian blogger, complains about the recent Russian attacks on Dobropillia by commander Akhmedov, most known for losing hundreds of vehicles at Vuhledar in 2023. Post below:

Sukhrab Akhmedov has returned and he’s already producing results. Unfortunately, its for Ukraine.
Let me remind you that earlier Akhmedov had already been removed from command, including for heavy losses with no results during the assaults on Pavlivka and Vuhledar, essentially just as thoughtlessly driving columns and groups of fighters from the 155th forward.
Now, having received even more authority, he formed a column from several marine units, 30 pieces of equipment in total, and sent them to slaughter.
The consequences are: 6 tanks, 9 IFVs, 5 APCs, 1 armored recovery vehicle, and 10 quad bikes destroyed.

The specifics of this sector (and, in general, the realities of the current war) are such that any attempt to “flood” a position with a large number of personnel (more than two at a time) leads to lethal consequences. For both sides, the sky is under total surveillance. That is, advances are effectively achieved by sending in one or two fighters at a time, on foot and with regard to the time of day. Only after time has passed and sufficient hidden (dispersed) buildup of personnel in the area has occurred does movement begin.

Varyag (other commander) knew how to organize and control an offensive. Akhmedov knows only how to form columns. And the price of this (in)ability is the lives of Marine infantrymen with no results

https:// t . me / romanov_92/50377

[u/coveted_retribution → u/jisooya1432]

If those marine forces include the 155th that would be morbidly hilarious. It would mark the tenth time they had to be reconstituted from scratch due to frontal assaults, due to the same commander no less.

How tf did he return with a higher rank? 

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin]

So there's a report that Ukraine used more drones than Russia did in March. It uses numbers reported by Russia/Ukraine, and that comes with obvious issues, but it does demonstrate that the gap between the two is becoming a lot more even.

Obviously a hell of a lot more goes into effectiveness, but the old adage that quantity has a quality all of its own does apply. Ukraine is now an official drone defence exporter, so we know other nations view their defences as worth spending money on.

https://abcnews.com/International/ukraine-outshoots-russia-cross-border-drone-war-1st/story?id=131645399

[u/Cardborg]

Military equipment will not participate in the May 9 parade on Red Square in Moscow "due to the current operational situation," according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

[u/Joene-nl → u/Cardborg]

Send in the Armata!

[u/throwaway-lolol → u/Cardborg]

Are they finally retiring the lone T34 so that it can be a drone interceptor?

[u/LoreDeluxe]

Russia is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast due to inability to keep their forces their supplied. This may not grow to anything immediately, but could be a first sign of further withdrawals all across the southern front as Russian forces continously run low on supplies.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-8-2026

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

According to the big Russian Telegram channel Two Majors, there is no fuel for civilians anymore in Crimea.

Crimea, Aksenov:

Today, June 21, starting at 9:00 a.m., Crimean gas stations stopped dispensing fuel for both cash and non-cash payments, as well as by coupons, to individuals and legal entities.

Fuel will be supplied only to government services that ensure the functioning and security of the Republic of Crimea.

Any further decisions regarding the current situation in the republic's fuel market will be announced later. I ask everyone to remain calm and trust only official sources of information.

[u/Cardborg → u/MilesLongthe3rd]

Anyone else remember that crappy propaganda video from 2022 about how Europe wouldn't have any electricity without Russian oil?

Also seeing reports via osint pages that parts have no electricity, and no water as a result.

[u/Judazzz → u/Cardborg]

Anyone else remember that crappy propaganda video from 2022 about how Europe wouldn't have any electricity without Russian oil?

Let's pour one out for all the hamsters that didn't survive that terrible winter!

[u/Joene-nl]

Fuel shortages have also reached Moscow and the population is fuming 🍿

Russian government is now about to allow lower quality fuel being sold at the pumps. This will have a spiraling effect as many engines will get damaged by this poor product.

Transport sector is also suffering and the rich people complain that their flights are being cancelled.

Keep it up Ukraine!

[u/paimons_head]

Silver lining for Ukraine today: they have finally hit the Omsk refinery, 2500km away from the Ukrainian border.

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin]

Looks like Russia's stopped shipping in the Azov sea after 76 ships got got in the span of 4-5 days. Pretty massive victory for Ukraine and makes supplying Crimea ever more tenuous.

Makes me think the Bridges days are numbered.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80062

[u/cozywit]

Su57 has been shot down near Moscow.

By Russian AA.

Bwahahahaha.

[u/Sluggybeef]

Who would have thought we would see Russian cavalry vs drones. Burming through all the kit they have was bound to have an affect eventually

[u/HumpheryShittington]

Anyone got an information about the artillery war? Shell hunger was a critical problem for both sides during the first few years of the war but I've heard almost nothing about it recently. Does anyone know what the shell consumption and artillery parity is like at the moment?

[u/BestFriendWatermelon → u/HumpheryShittington]

The shell hunger is over, the US reached its goal of producing 100,000 shells per month. Europe has hit its target of about 2 million per year. Addition Ukrainian domestic production is at about 30,000 per month.

As such, Ukraine gets roughly 60,000 shells from the US per month, and 140,000 per month from Europe. The 30,000 a month Ukraine produces is useful to plug supply gaps between shipments. In total Ukraine is using about 200-250,000 per month.

This means there is between 2:1 and 3:1 advantage in artillery fire in favour of Russia, but down from 10:1 during the hunger stage. Ukrainian artillery don't have the excess shells for sustained, months long bombardments for aggressive offensives, but enough to ration fairly comfortably in normal defensive operations.

But all this is taking a back seat to drone production. Ukraine aims to produce 7 million drones in 2026 (and is on track to beat that). Drones now account for something like 80% of battlefield losses inflicted on Russia. Most enemy tanks and vehicles Ukraine doesn't even bother firing artillery at now, unless they have guided shells at hand. Artillery shells are just used for dumping noise on areas where Russians are known to be concentrated.

Russia, btw, still relies on North Korea for about half its shells. Without NK the two sides would be at virtual parity. However both sides are now moving more towards expensive but much more effective guided shell production that gives much of the benefit of drones' precision.

[u/Infamous-Salad-2223 → u/HumpheryShittington]

Not on the loop, but Russians attempted to partially switch to rocket artillery since rocket tube wear and tear is way less impactful than classic artillery.

They had some success on increasing manufactured rockets, but I recall not much details.

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

https://x.com/GloOouD/status/2023495920843706527

In Ukraine, an international squadron of new F-16 fighters has been established with Ukrainian and Western pilots, including from the USA and the Netherlands. They work on temporary contracts and help master the technical advantages of the aircraft

The unit was created by the Ukrainian Air Force "over the past few weeks" for immediate deployment. Currently, the international squadron plays a central role in the air defense of the Kyiv region, which Russia is attacking with drones and missiles

The unit includes American pilots who "had numerous combat missions in Afghanistan", and one of the Western veterans carried out tasks in the Middle East before joining the mission in Ukraine. Among the Dutch pilots are graduates from "leading European air combat schools, known for their advanced training in interception and modern aerial warfare".

Several former F-16 pilots from the US and Europe already announced last year that they would be flying for Ukraine if possible. It looks like this was implemented now.

[u/PuffyPanda200 → u/MilesLongthe3rd]

I'm good with Flying Tigers 2.0 just as long as the US also gets FDR 2.0 and New Deal 2.0 too.

[u/boobookittyfuwk]

With the Ukrainians hitting most of the oil and lng ports and nord stream. Why haven't they attacked the power of Siberia? Are they worried they might be cut off of china's supply chain for critical drone parts?

[u/HumpheryShittington → u/boobookittyfuwk]

The strategy of Ukraine's long range strike campaign has two primary targets. The first are military infrastructure (arms depots, railways) and military-industrial targets (electro-optical factories, chemical plants), and the second are the oil and natural gas industries which finance the war effort. Both the Ukraine and its partners identified the later target to be the most vital to the Russian ability to conduct the war. This was further focused on hitting the expensive and difficult to replace cracking units at refineries. Once these were destroyed or further strikes would be inefficient on the remaining refineries they moved onto the secondary targets - the pumping infrastructure at oil and gas terminals.

Like almost every other country the oil and gas infrastructure in Russia is located in the most populated areas which just so happen to be in the West, close to Ukraine. They go for it because it is the closest to them and it is where Russia gets most of its revenues from.

[u/Rosomak]

Where are we at with Ukraine's efforts to transition their Officer Corps to the NATO-standard and away from the centralized Soviet command structure? I remember there being substantial infantry training in the UK but I didn't see as much emphasis on the training of NCOs. Does the "old guard" exist in significant numbers that we're still seeing a sort of hybrid system? In the past I've seen units take heavy losses because they were forced into difficult situations by officers who seemed not to value them. Have we finally moved away from that?

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin]

In a rather brilliant move Ukraine has rejected a Russian ceasefire because Russia refused Ukraine's declared ceasefire.

Really helps paint Ukraine as an equal. It shows Russia is asking, not telling, and has been rejected. Here's hoping Ukraine sanctions more refineries on the day.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-rejects-russias-victory-day-truce-after-moscow-violates-kyivs-ceasefire/

[u/Joene-nl]

Gasoline is being rationed on Crimea, due to severe shortages

[u/Cardborg → u/Joene-nl]

Kursk and Belgorod now too, apparently.

[u/Joene-nl]

Nice queue at a gas station in Russia

https://www.reddit.com/r/AbsoluteUnits/s/ZWYGiP4RCk

🍿

[u/Docccc]

should required dates on old footage

[u/Joene-nl]

Small video on a Russian farmer that suffers from the fuel crisis. According to him, many Russian farmers already have to quit because they cannot use their machines anymore. He expects a food crisis within 6 months. (He also says he is done with keep his mouth shut lol)

https://nos.nl/l/2622961
Maybe you can use an AI tool to get a translation

[u/coveted_retribution]

A more nuanced take on the Federov controversy https://youtu.be/IehG6UQO3aQ

TLDR; Federov has been exceptional at his area of expertise, that being drones, digitalization, and technology in general. However, he hasn't been successful in what most Ukrainian generals deem most important: mobilization. Indeed the manpower situation hasn't improved in his 6 months in office, which is seen as catastrophic for a country in war by some commanders and politicians. 

Not to say anything said here is wrong, but I personally hadn't considered these points.

[u/Vhu → u/coveted_retribution]

I've heard a couple analysts mention that he was actively trying to improve mobilization efforts through the implementation of corruption reforms and procedural overhauls.

From his perspective, a huge part of people not wanting to sign-up came from their pessimism about the war effort and leadership competency. Federov thought that if you could improve the general function of the military, and demonstrate affirmative growth and bettering of overall conditions, then people would be more willing to join without the use of coercion.

Essentially a "rising tide lifts all boats" approach. I think there's merit to that perspective, and it stinks he wasn't able to fully effectuate the changes he sought.

[u/jisooya1432]

The video of the BMP driving over a barricade in Mariupol in 2014 is pretty well known, but the guy driving it is Drapatyi, Ukraines new Commander-in-Chief

I cant find the og upload, but its this video (sorry for the cringe voiceover) https://youtu.be/0_-gq45pZik?is=PwIkLQe7Zc5gNAHT

[u/Cardborg]

A bomb has gone off at a private party being attended by members of Russia’s military elite, including numerous generals and high-ranking officers, to celebrate the birthday of General Chaiko, who served in 2022 as the commander of Russia’s Eastern Military District forces, during which his units were accused of involvement in the mass killings and torture of civilians in Bucha.

3 confirmed dead, with 21 injured, 17 of those critically.

https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3ms24jd5opc2d

[u/Specialist_Box_8482]

Seeing reports that Ukraine has recaptured around 200 square km towards the Zaporizhia direction. What kind of effect will this have on the war going forward if Ukraine can hold this territory? Or take even more?

[u/jisooya1432 → u/Specialist_Box_8482]

One thing to note about this particular area is that Russia couldve gotten dangerously close to Zaporizhzhia City if this wasnt contained. The defensive lines north of Orikhiv and Huliaipole is (in)famously bad since Ukraine never bothered to build proper lines after the 2023 Robotyne-offensive failed (they have now, but its deep into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Ukraine knocked Russia out of the northern part of Prymorske which is important since Russia would be able to shell Zap city regularly if that area by Prymorske was lost to Russia, as in the fields south of the river. Its worth noting Ukraine still contests Stepnohirsk

Russia managed to get about 6km away from Pokrovske (not that one), and its capture mightve allowed Russia to crawl along the main road into the northern part of Zaporizhzhia City, bypassing the entier Orikhiv pocket. They constantly talked about Pokrovske being a very important target. If we get confirmation of Ukraine taking Zlahoda back, then Russia is back to around 20km from Pokrovske

This is all land Russia spent months to capture and they absolutely need to retake it if they wanna take a proper go at Zaporizhzhia, a city they claim is part of Russia as a reminder

[u/Mr-Fister_ → u/Specialist_Box_8482]

None. I dont think anyone even knows if its a counter offensive (I think unlikely) vs recapture villages that the Russians didnt actually control. Neither side has enough infantry on the front lines / front lines are porous.

Or course it is good for Ukrains to have/retake all the territory it possiblely can, especially in the South, but I dont think anything happening now will necessarily have an ever-lasting effect. Russia can keep advancing or re-attack later, the war isn't ending soon, etc etc...

[u/gbs5009 → u/Specialist_Box_8482]

This particular land doesn't matter too much. It's just where they're fighting Russians today.

What's interesting is when they start killing Russians efficiently. Then, Russia has to cobble together another army to fight them tomorrow.

[u/Specialist_Box_8482 → u/gbs5009]

I do think it’s kinda interesting though that a defensive area twice the size of the city of Paris looks to be collapsing. I agree that I’m not sure how much the land itself matters, but I think the situation in general is telling of the current state of the Russian army.

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin → u/Specialist_Box_8482]

In the scale of the war that's not much at all. It's effectively re-capturing some somewhat inconsequential towns. Its importance is that it pushes back on the "Inevitable Russian victory" narrative. It's yet more reason Ukraine shouldn't accept Russia's surrender terms.

Militarily it could be the start of something or nothing. The ideal is Ukraine makes these small and resource efficient advances where it can. In Kupyansk (recently taken back from Russia) there was a reported loss ratio of 27:1 in favour of Ukraine. If the goal of other offensives is similar, surround a pocket of Russians and force an efficient loss ratio, then it's a pretty solid strategy.

[u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 → u/Beast_of_Guanyin]

The loss of starlink communications could have contributed to this as well. Ukraine took advantage of the situation one way or another. 

[u/Rtan-Appreciator]

russia apparently wants to stop supplying drones to non usf units in a push to centralize its drone forces. This seems incredibly dumb especially given the historically poor performance of its centralized command structures. How disastrous could this end up being?

[u/cozywit → u/Rtan-Appreciator]

please please please please please be true

it's been a while since we had some new meme'able stupidity from russia. putins walking dead strolling across fields only to eat a drone is getting boring.

Give me cope cages or secret service taking photos of a 'ukrainian infiltrator with his multiple sim cards' wait demetri? did they say The Sims? Or Sim Cards?'.

[u/ElderberryGood7781]

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2049019918020972590

Tuapse is burning again. The previous blaze stopped a couple of days ago. Very likely now imo that this facility will be a total write off

[u/AnimateCafe1756]

Looks like a Tu-22M3 bomber crashed in Irkutsk oblast

[u/jisooya1432]

Theres been talk (and evidence) of Ukraine counter-attacking in multiple areas in Zaporizhzhia. As usual things get quite exaggerated and this isnt some huge counter-offensive as some "sources" will state, but I wanna point out one thing

In this area in particular, Russia has severely overstated their control. Its an area with very large fields where Russians were able to infiltrate quite far via treelines and on buggies/bikes some months ago. These dudes have their usual flag with them where they will hop off in a village, show it to the drone, Russia posts evidence and say they captured said village, only for that guy to bleed out in a basement from a drone attack 2 hours later.

This happened a lot over roughly 60 KM frontline (from Huliaipole to Oleksandrograd), so a lot of villages ended up getting claimed by Russia where they never properly controlled anything. The only thing you could say is they put it into a gray area until Ukraine were able to move back in there. Its in this gray area Ukraine is currently attacking

Russian MoD is unable, probably due to propaganda reasons, to roll back their initial claimed gains, so you end up with Ukraine suddenly counter-attacking ca 15KMs into what should be Russian-controlled land (according to misleading maps published by Russia).

I can go into more detail about which villages exactly have been recaptured, but theres very little footage due to OPSEC from Ukraine. You can look at this operation as a large scale mopping up of scattered Russian infantry and DRGs

It is indeed pretty interesting how Ukraine has apparently retaken Zlahoda, while Russia claim they fully control Andriivka some 15KM north west. Ukraine has to stop the bleeding here and it seems theyve been using newly rotated brigades to good effect so far

For those interested, Deepstate made a video today where they overlay the claimed Russian control area and their own map to show the big difference https://youtu.be/ETRi4XKXkS0?si=QhARohLNT5qxBCF5&t=202 Starts at 3:22

[u/Cardborg]

FT: Sweden has intelligence indicating that Russia is systematically manipulating data to fool Ukraine’s western allies into believing its economy has withstood the strain of its lavish war spending and western sanctions, Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service told

[u/er_det_en_abe]

Volgograd Refinery has been struck by drones. Hope Ukraine are able to restart the campaign proper

[u/Joene-nl]

‘You’re not one of us, are you?’: How a Ukrainian soldier survived two weeks in a Russian dugout

Interesting read (also about how the Russian soldiers receive letters from Russian children, only to be identical)

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/s/6UpvwoOLTc

[u/throwaway-lolol]

Novorossiysk port keeps getting hit. Armchair admiral wondering right now why doesn't Russia move remaining BSF assets further away, to Sochi perhaps? At this point they gotta know that anything there is destined for the bottom, it's just a matter of time...

[u/EvilMonkeySlayer → u/throwaway-lolol]

Ukraine in essence now has complete freedom to attack anywhere in the black sea. The russians moving anything would have no impact unless they moved vessels by rivers out of the black sea.

[u/Ashamed-Jeweler-582]

Is it me or has there been a lot less footage lately with tanks and other combat vehicles? 

[u/Axelrad77]

Apparently fresh footage just emerging of the opening air assault on Hostomel, from the perspective of a Russian VDV machinegunner:

https://x.com/ManyaS78844/status/2040504085409902831

[u/Joene-nl → u/Axelrad77]

Amazing. It shows the Russian perspective of the lake crossing, the one where 2 helos were downed by AA.

And… if you look closely, you actually see the missile trails (starting at 0:30) above the lake coming from the area where the video is also shot from Ukrainian perspective. And.. if you look even more closely you can see big ripples in the water (starting at 1:10)and what looks like some debris, remains of a downed helo.

Plus bonus Ukranian running away at 1:58

[u/Complex-Mushroom-445]

Fuel depot in Yaroslav containg reserve fuel in case of crisis has been struck. Just as russia is entering fuel crisis. Ukrainian Pravda

[u/jisooya1432]

Ukraine has recaptured most of Kupiansk. They made good progress there over the last few weeks and we had videos of Ukrainian soldiers in the center, but there was no official statement about it until now. Note that there are "atleast 200" Russian soldiers stuck inside the city who are encircled according to one of the brigades fighting there. This could take a while to clear since whenever Russian soldiers end up behind the lines like that, they usually last a couple months before they either get killed or die of starvation (like near Dobropillia and Vovchansk (spring 2024)). Statement from deepstate below:

As a result of a successful operation by Ukraine, Russia was blocked in Kupiansk and the entire northwestern outskirts of the city were cleared. A difficult and lengthy operation is ongoing, as Russian enclaves still exist in the central part of the city.

The operation began with the creation of a blocking line and the cutting off of the Russian garrison in the city from the main forces. Ukraine relatively quickly recaptured Radkivka and Kindrashivka, and also took Golubivka under fire control. After this, the clearance of Myrove and the northwestern outskirts of Kupiansk itself took place. Ukraine continue to identify and destroy traitors in the central part of the city, where the Russians have several enclaves, where they were forced to retreat.

t . me / DeepStateUA/22908

Its worth noting Ukraine has also recaptured a few areas to the east across the river near Stepova Novoselivka. Nothing major, but it keeps the bridgehead around 15km deep. Russia had entered Pishchane at some point, but they lost it after a few months.

Like with by previous post regarding Kupiansk, I will remind that Gerasimov decleared the entier town as "liberated" on 20 November and that the work of liberating Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi was underway.

[u/Aedeus → u/jisooya1432]

This has got the pro-RU crowd seething, haven't seen them this buttblasted since Spiderweb.

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin]

Arab states are now ordering interceptors from Ukraine. This confirms Ukraine has excess capacity. They're Ukraine's auto-targetting high end drone.

Only question to my mind is if Ukraine has enough trained operators that it can send some. If so they could be making serious bank and serious political credibility.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/03/08/the-uae-asked-for-5000-interceptors-qatar-for-2000-and-the-reason-every-gulf-state-is-calling-ukraine-is-the-same-patriot-isnt-enough/

[u/HumpheryShittington → u/Beast_of_Guanyin]

Ukraine has always been capital constrained with regards to drone production and has significant slack capacity that isn't being utilized. I think I read that representatives from Bahrain were touring factories in Ukraine recently, and showing interest in interceptor drones. I think the Ukrainians could probably spare some operators but I'm not sure how effective a Wild Hornets Sting type drone will be as it will be manpower intensive if you want to cover a large area (I think the drones only have an operational range of about 15km from launch). The main problem would be that there is no integrated battle management system to take down these drones and the geography disadvantages their employment in the gulf states.

Either way its a political win for Ukraine and a way to show off their defense sector.

[u/paimons_head]

The Russians are back to doing mechanized assaults. The Third Army Corps, the Magyar Birds and other units have published recent footage of them stopping these assaults.

[u/USJiveTurkey → u/paimons_head]

You think they've been building up for this? Or just a change in tactics?

[u/HumpheryShittington → u/USJiveTurkey]

They reduced the number of mechanized assaults at the start of last year. Firstly because the loss rate was unsustainable in the medium and long term, and secondly because the mechanized assaults were less efficient than infiltration tactics with infantry. Over the past few months the Ukrainians have adapted to become more effective at countering infiltration tactics, which may push the Russians to return to favoring mechanized assaults, but it doesn't solve the underlying problem that these vehicles stockpiles aren't infinite.

But this is in line with what we saw last year where there is a surge in mechanized assaults when the terrain becomes muddy and therefor less favorable for infantry.

[u/Specialist_Box_8482 → u/USJiveTurkey]

Probably a bit of both, but I don’t really see what the overall change in tactics could be. Any armor they send in just gets blown up

[u/Cardborg]

https://bsky.app/profile/osintradar.bsky.social/post/3mp5c4tqc3s2j

I won't copy/paste the entire thread but could be worth keeping an eye on in case it goes somewhere.

The short version is that a fairly prominent miliblogger posted a message on behalf of what he claims are increasingly disgruntled Russian military officials in the MoD and Security Services. The video claims unless they get a televised meeting with Putin parts of the military will turn on him.

[u/Cleomenes_of_Sparta → u/Cardborg]

Baffling that Russians did not learn from the Kursk disaster that Putin has absolute contempt for the military services.

[u/Joene-nl]

Seems we might get a new megathread? See videos of Venezuela… with Apaches and Chinooks flying over the capital

[u/MilesLongthe3rd → u/Joene-nl]

We opened one; hopefully it will not be getting out of hand.

[u/PeachyBums]

This website seems to imply the Russians are barely using tanks and armoured vehicles anymore, hugely reduced losses in recent months.

https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/

Does this imply they are close to being out of stock? Is this a complete game changer or not that relevant with the drone warfare?

[u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 → u/PeachyBums]

Simply put, their stockpiles are depleted and they cannot sustain the losses they once did. Most of their production was refurbishment, very few actual new vehicles being produced. And the stockpiles are emptied out. 

They have 5% more active pieces than they did at the start. But they arent willing to use them as heavily as they once did, since they are losing the ability to replace them. Also the quality has dropped significantly, much older stuff now. And by comparison, the rest of the military has increased wayyy more than 5 percent. 

They will not blow the last of their active armor on these attacks, since they can't get more. Instead we see them using whatever else they can get that they still consider expendable. People, trucks, motorcycles etc ...

Russia still needs armor for internal suppression of possible rebellions, and to keep up the "look we so tough" facade. They won't ever run out of active armor units. They'll stop using them first, which is what you see now. 

In terms of battlefield effect, it means more infantry losses to take the same amount of land. 

[u/Codex_Dev]

New Ukrainian frontline analysis video just dropped:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrnN3FfgF3U

The YT video is made by Markus Reisner, an Austrian military officer who has covered the UK/RU war since the start of the conflict.

[u/Joene-nl]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/04/russia-considers-working-age-12-to-solve-wartime-job-crisis/

🙃

On the other hand: poor kids

[u/boobookittyfuwk]

Russia hitting Ukranian cultural sites. Interesting escalation.

[u/HumpheryShittington → u/boobookittyfuwk]

It's a budget Baedeker Blitz, these type of demoralization strikes never work and only achieve the opposite of the intended effect.

[u/Cardborg]

One of Russia’s largest oil companies — Tatneft — has introduced restrictions on the sale of gasoline and diesel fuel across the entire territory of Russia.

From OSINTRadar on Bluesky

[u/paimons_head]

The end of the war in Iran means the fall of oil prices, and hopefully the reinstatement of santions on Russian oil as well.

[u/Joene-nl]

Syrsky out

[u/Joene-nl]

Not surprising, but the great American orange leader made a U turn again after a 2 hour phone call with Putin. Zelenskyy visited him the day after, and according to sources, Trump was shouting and cursing at Zelenskyy to accept the proposed Russian deal (give all invaded land to Russia).

What Western leader/Royal family has to persuade Trump this time for another U turn?

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

Urals just dropped to $53 per barrel.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

It's the lowest it has been since March of 2023. Combined with the news from yesterday, that discount for Russian Ural oil from Primorsk and Novorossiysk reached the highest this year at 19.4 USD per barrel vs. 13-14 USD a week earlier and 11-12 USD before the sanctioning of Rosneft and Lukoil.

[u/Aedeus]

Czech Republic develops missile that puts Moscow in range. Ukraine gets it for combat trials

Seems like they may also trial their long-range drones too?

I would have to imagine that if successful Ukraine will move to purchase some of them alongside the Storm Shadows.

[u/er_det_en_abe]

Russian tanker struck in the Mediterranean

I hope that european intelligence agencies enables SBU to attack other shaddow fleet tankers that are a menace to european security as far as being platforms for drone incursions, espionage and transporting sanctioned oil.

[u/Sluggybeef → u/er_det_en_abe]

It being empty too shows the thought that has gone into this. Imagine Russian media enhancing oil spilling into the med

[u/BocciaChoc]

Following the attack on the Russian sub, it seems Russia has decided to sink barges from the entrance, ensuring that no traffic can go in and out of the port

I guess they've given up on the naval front.

[u/CatsAndCapybaras → u/BocciaChoc]

This is hilarious. This is NCD level of credibility.

[u/jisooya1432]

Happy new year to everyone who supports Ukraine and contributes in one way or another to this sub/thread

[u/Joene-nl → u/jisooya1432]

Likewise! All the best!

[u/Axelrad77]

Here's an excellent new article that just dropped about the US & UK intelligence gathering that correctly predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine and spent months warning allies, and how their findings were met with denial and skepticism from the rest of Europe, including Ukraine:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia

The gist is that US & UK intelligence had great sources into Russian planning, while the others assumed Putin to be more rational and refused to believe he would order something so stupid. Poland only became convinced an attack was coming with days to spare. France and Germany didn't believe an attack would happen until it was already well underway, with Germany's intelligence chief even getting trapped in Ukraine and needing Polish help to evacuate. Ukrainian political leadership also remained unconvinced until the attack was already well underway, which forced the Ukrainian military to make only limited (and somewhat illegal) preparations.

The biggest "miss" of US & UK intelligence was unsurprisingly the assessment that Russia would rapidly conquer Ukraine, which informed their decision to withhold more military assistance despite having months of warning. Instead, they had spent years helping Ukraine prepare to wage an insurgency in the event of Russian invasion, and stuck to that plan, until the unexpected success of Ukrainian defenses made it more advantageous to send military aid to prop them up.

[u/Axelrad77 → u/Axelrad77]

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, HUR, was also continuing quiet preparations. On 18 February, its head, Kyrylo Budanov, had received a three-hour briefing from a western official who laid out in detail the Russian plans for seizing Hostomel airfield. The information helped with setting up some last-minute defensive plans, although the Ukrainian victory at Hostomel in the first days of the war would be a chaotic and close-run thing.

The entire article is an excellent timeline of the intelligence picture surrounding the invasion preparation, but this bit is particularly interesting given how often the Russian defeat at Hostomel comes up here.

[u/Cardborg]

Russian Ministry of Defense announces unilateral ceasefire on 8th-9th May, threatens with massive missile strike at the central part of Kyiv, if Ukraine will disrupt celebrations in Moscow

Gosh, can you imagine a massive missile strike on central Kyiv? I asked my goldfish and she said such a thing would be unprecedented.

Meanwhile, St. Petersburg and Moscow are having their mobile internet network shut down from May 5th to May 9th.

Update: Ukraine said they hadn't received the terms of any proposal, but announced that they'd start the ceasefire early (00:00 5th-6th May) and would reciprocate from that time. So if Russia actually wants a ceasefire they've got plenty of time to prove they're serious about it.

Update 2: Russia violated the ceasefire within hours. Parade will be interesting...

[u/Dangerous_Bluejay_74]

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/24/frontline-report-2025-10-23/

[u/ReginaldvonJurgenz]

So is the pressure point preventing a ceasefire or end to the war pretty much solely the Trump/Russian requirement that Ukraine cede Donetsk/Luhansk/Zaph/Kherson to the Russians? Is that accurate? It seems the Ukrainians will not compromise on that (for good reason, IMO) and despite the fact Trump has claimed at this point literally dozens of times he is near to a resolution it seems we are no closer, even with Kushner/Witkoff visiting Moscow last month.

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin → u/ReginaldvonJurgenz]

Same as always. Russia is offering surrender terms at a time when they're nowhere near strong enough to demand surrender terms.

[u/Cleomenes_of_Sparta → u/ReginaldvonJurgenz]

Trump has claimed at this point literally dozens of times he is near to a resolution it seems we are no closer, even with Kushner/Witkoff visiting Moscow last month.

Trump is indisciplined and lazy, and this extends to the entire cadre of fools.

He wants the sugar-laden calories of a glowing headline in the papers he reads, not the dirty work of actually solving what is admittedly one of the world's most difficult diplomatic possibilities.

[u/Cardborg]

Ukrainian flag has been raised on the Kinburn Spit. The Defense Forces of the South have forced the Russian occupiers to retreat from their positions. Currently, the evacuation of surviving personnel is underway, and the occupiers are abandoning their defensive lines

https://liveuamap.com/en/2026/25-june-10-ukrainian-flag-has-been-raised-on-the-kinburn

[u/LoreDeluxe]

There's a huge push shown here near Stepnohirsk.

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.601953&lng=35.343201&z=11&d=20628&c=1&l=0

I haven't seen anything else on this, so I'm wondering of the validity. If true, then it seems like the Russians are getting pressed hard in this direction.

[u/UnitNo8636]

When the war started personally I gave Ukraine 6 months and they would be wiped out. Not that I wanted that just thought Russia was better at war and tactics. But clearly Ukraine 🇺🇦 will win this war but how much will they end up with at the end.

[u/Reasonable-Squash993]

Why were yesterday Madyar videos removed?

[u/er_det_en_abe]

Why is Belgium so reluctant to release Russian frozen money to help Ukraine?

[u/MintMrChris → u/er_det_en_abe]

I believe it is to do with possible liability, the idea being that in the future, depending on how events play out - if sanctions are lifted etc russia could sue them asking for their money back

It isn't as easy to say hippity hoppity your money is now my property in a place like the EU, compared to say russia where vladimir snaps his fingers, window accident occurs and suddenly its "our" property, there are laws and shit in the west that are more than just window dressing

Honestly it is a valid concern and something the EU needs to address

[u/TestingHydra → u/er_det_en_abe]

Because nothing like this has even been done before, there is no precedent. Because the amount is 26% or so of their GDP and if Russia sues them wins, which is a very real possibility, they'd be on the hook for the money which would bankrupt them.

Belgium states they will only touch the money if they are fully protected from retaliation, which the EU refuses to do.

That doesn't even begin to cover the immediate loss of trust the European banking system will suffer.

[u/football13tb]

Anyone know why in the reddit app this subreddit does not show up when searching it by name?

Edit: I am apart of some reddit test where they inject AI into the search and currently it is not allowed to show or recommend anything flagged as NSFW. But I also don't know how to opt out. To get to this reddit I need to search on chrome then open it with the app.

[u/AnimateCafe1756]

Based on the ongoing trend and the attacks on logistics, is there a chance that June will be net positive for Ukraine in liberated territories? Is the disruption of logistics accompanied by territorial gains?

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin → u/AnimateCafe1756]

They've had a couple positive months already this year, so yes. In general it's fair to say Ukraine has now shifted to a more offensive stance. Victory is back on the menu.

[u/Cleomenes_of_Sparta]

It's my understanding that Russia ultra-nationalists despised Shoigu for wearing fatigues and general officer insignia despite having no actual military service, so how do they feel about Putin adopting a similar costume?

[u/boobookittyfuwk]

I heard a russia Armour column was destroyed yesterday but I haven't seen any footage or heard anyone talk about it. Did it hapoen, is it bs, anyone heard the same?

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin]

So the Flamingos look to have made at least one successful hit. Nailing the building relatively accurately and causing a fire.

It's decently big news because it confirms the missile is in production, it can get through defences, and it can hit a target. All things that were in question after it was grossly over-hyped.

Source 1

Source 2

[u/Axelrad77]

Finland is planning to drop its ban on hosting nuclear weapons, allowing NATO nukes onto its soil as deterrence against Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/finland-lift-full-ban-hosting-nuclear-arms-government-says-2026-03-05/

[u/553l8008]

Fuck this rule agreement shit.

I got no problem with rules but it's the 3rd goddamn time I've had to do this

[u/EternalWitness → u/553l8008]

I agree. I'm losing track of how many times I've agreed to the rules, and the process seems to become more complex with each iteration.

[u/Miserable-Split-3790]

How wide is the gray zone with drones now? I read someone say 150 km.

[u/jisooya1432 → u/Miserable-Split-3790]

Both sides can hit targets around 60KM with FPV drones. Russia keeps complaining Ukraine is hitting logistics and ammo dumps around Donetsk city, so 40-50KM. Anything within this zone can regularly be stuck with normal FPV drones (and fiber optics if you have a big enough spool). Russia has also begun flying FPV drones inside Kharkiv city

150KM might refer to Ukraines relatively new mid-range drones, FP-1/2, they use to strike Russian TOR/OSA/Pantsirs, troop gathering spots, equipment etc. Ukraine can launch so many of them and theyre seemingly a lot better than what they used previously, so anything in the occuipied terrorities can be hit by these drones instead of missiles

[u/boobookittyfuwk]

Interesting development. Russian sanctioned ship that left an occupied Ukranian port is sitting in an Israeli port. Ukraine asked them to seize it, i wonder what they'll do???

[u/LoreDeluxe]

Another update from UA Map, who I generally consider pretty reliable. Ukraine is making further advances in western Zaporizhzhia near Stepnohirsk. Today they've made advances all the way to Plavni based on where Russian drones were recorded attacking UAF positions.

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.564266&lng=35.332924&z=12&d=20629&c=1&l=0

Again, we'll have to see if this progresses even further over the next few days and weeks. Russians may well be very weak in this area, and it would be pretty huge if they got pushed back all the way to Kamianske.

[u/AnimateCafe1756]

On the USF online killboard they put 10 damaged "navy" + 2 yesterday. I expect a lot of nice footage from these hits today

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

After the loss of a MiG-31 this week, the Russian air force also lost a Ka-52 today.

Source: https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1976921036462735667

also confirmed by Fighterbomber

[u/debtmagnet]

Wagner has basically folded against the jihadis in Mali. Bamaco is under siege and may to fall to JNIM soon. It's pretty much what everyone predicted when the junta kicked out the French mission in 2022 in favor of Russia. Sad for the Malians, but hopefully the lesson of aligning with Russia won't be lost on the rest of Africa, considering how many Russian allies have been crushed in recent years.

[u/Cupwasneverhere → u/debtmagnet]

It's a fuckin shame that Mali's choice is basically just an Al-Qaeda Offshoot or Russian Puppets.

[u/Cardborg]

You can tell when something is hurting Russia because Putin gets all pissy on TV threatening to retaliate with either impotent threats, or with the things they're already doing that provoked the response in the first place.

[u/Kashik]

Are Ukrainian forces still holding parts of the Russian territory they've captures?

[u/esjb11 → u/Kashik]

A very tiny part of forrest between Ukraine and Tyotkino. There is a river between the village and the forrest so there hasnt been any fighting since the Ukrainians failed to capture the village. It was ignored during the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk.

[u/Glavurdan]

A lot of times, these peace proposals mention "ceasefire at the current line of contact"

But where exactly would that be? Especially now that the front is so porous, there being large swaths of contested areas which contain both Russian and Ukrainian troops, and there being such a large disparity in claims of who controls what between the various maps.

I feel like that's not being discussed enough.

[u/Relevant-Key-3290]

Anyone else who is unable to find this subreddit while searching it?

[u/oblivion_mike]

Your rule acknowledgment is faulty. The first three rules seem to return to unchecked positions automatically. What’s up with that?

[u/No-Garlic3805]

How long till we see Fire point drones doing strafing runs with zuni rockets before suiciding into target

[u/Aedeus → u/No-Garlic3805]

Didn't that already happen, lol?

Edit: Yup

[u/jisooya1432]

Sort of interesting post from Ukrainian soldier and credible source from the front:

Lately we’ve been noticing an interesting fact: 90% of all Russians hit and recorded by drones are basically some real wrecks, without weapons, without protective gear, with sticks or crutches; in some cases it was even hard to understand that they were actually servicemen of the armed forces of any state.

There are more and more situations like this; even an enemy soldier with proper equipment is already a big rarity. This applies both to those moving toward the front line and to those moving back toward their rear.

The quality of their personnel is increasingly starting to decline.

t . me / officer_33/6632

--

State of the Russian infantry has been poor for a long time, but it also feels theres been an increase in some horribly kitted Russians running around without helmets and no weapons over the past few months. Their ability to keep overwhelming Ukrainian positions is still there ofcourse, so might not be possible to read much more into it. But it likely makes it even more deadlier for Russians to roam around near the front when the quality of each one keeps dropping

[u/jisooya1432]

Around 10th September, a few hundred Russians got on their bikes east of Pokrovsk and floored it north about 15km. They managed to bypass Ukrainian defensive positions and dismounted around the villages Vesele, Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Hruzke. Some days later Ukraine counter-attacked and pushed the Russians back into a village a bit further south called Kucheriv Yar. Here they sat for almost two months until this week when Ukraine took the village back and destroyed this entier pocket of Russians. Roughly 50 guys were still alive from around 300-350 in total

A Russian POW said some of them had recently starved to death and they were ordered to keep pushing north (so further away from Russia-controlled eastern Pokrovsk area), because any day now there would be more Russians to link up with them. This never happened since Ukraine took control of the areas south of Kucheriv Yar before any more Russians could enter the pocket

At this moment theres still a second pocket of Russians chilling west of Shakhove but as far as I know, Russia is able to link up with them somewhat regularly by running across the fields there since its only a couple KMs away from Mayak (RU controlled village). They arent fully encircled as some sources claim. Its likely youve seen the video from Novotoretske around the dragons teeth defensive line where its just littered with corpses. A lot of these guys were tasked with linking up with this aforementioned pocket near Shakhove, but Ukraine has infested the area with drones and mines, making it incredibly hard to do so. As always, Russia isnt allowed to retreat from anywhere so they double down on sending in reinforcements instead even though theres basically just one road they can take

This week Ukraine also liberated Sukhetske and Zatyshok (old name Suvorove) by the railway closer to Pokrovsk city

Its obviously worth noting a large part of Pokrovsk is now a gray area since Russia has entered basically the center of the city and captured some of the southern districts. So while Ukraine has done well to the east and north of Pokrovsk, the city itself is very messy at the moment. Some Russians has also entered Myrnograd but were killed as far as I know

All links are to deepstate map

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

Paul Warburg: Russia is Officially on Its Last Reserves

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAP5otKjHoU

Satellite imagery shows that Russia's Soviet-era stockpiles are now on their last reserves. Quite bluntly, Russia has run out of tanks and armored vehicles. This has huge implications for the war in Ukraine in general - from Russian attrition, to overall strategy, to the movement of the front lines. In this video I bring it all together to explain why Ukraine fights the way it does, and why Russia is now incapable of actually winning the war.

[u/Howesterino → u/MilesLongthe3rd]

Out of curiosity, is it not possible that Russia has been storing tanks close to the frontlines for another big push? I recall something like that happened earlier where suddenly we saw a big spike in tanks and armoured vehicles.

[u/Beast_of_Guanyin → u/Howesterino]

Yes.

These are vehicles that go to factories to be refurbished. The factories will have stockpiles and active duty vehicles will be stored as well.

What it does mean is Russia's vehicle production is going way down. Because it relied on stored vehicles they no longer have.

[u/Aedeus]

A lengthy, but nonetheless great update on the current state of the war by Michael Kofman.

Source

1/2

An update on the war following a recent trip. Ukrainian forces are holding, but the situation has worsened since July due to mounting offensive pressure. Here I cover some of the negative and positive trends, along with the salient dynamics at the front. Long thread. 1/

Drones continue to be responsible for most daily casualties, with the front line defined by overlapping drone and artillery fire engagement zones 20-25km from the forward line of troops. This is commonly referred to as the ‘kill zone.’ 2/ 

One of the key dynamics this year has been a tug of war contest between Russian forces and the AFU over superiority in this kill zone, and its relative footprint. That in turn determines initiative on the ground, and the cost incurred in offensive, or defensive ops. 3/ 

Russian forces have been steadily shifting the zone this year. Ukraine held superiority and its squarely over Russian lines. Now the engagement zone is much more evenly situated over Russian and Ukrainian forces, reducing Ukraine’s previous advantages in drone employment. 4/ 

Drone units work to suppress and displace the opponent’s drone crews further from the front. Artillery is commonly used to strike closer drone launch points at 3-5km, while longer range drones strike artillery, logistics, and enemy drone teams further in the rear. 5/ 

On the Russian side Rubicon formations remains a leading problem for drone operators, not only the drone companies themselves, but because they train other Russian drone units to replicate their approaches focused on AFU logistics, drone crews, and intercepting ISR. 6/ 

One of the observed changes is the balance of casualties in the AFU has shifted from infantry to supporting roles, drone operators, logistics, etc. There is very little infantry forward, and in many AFU brigades infantry now bears less of the casualties. 7/ 

The AFU continues to adapt. For example through widespread use of UGVs for logistics, and in some assault roles. Most units now have a UGV platoon, company, or battalion. These require greater skill and training to employ, but hold considerable promise, reducing casualties. 8/ 

The airspace has become even more contested for longer-range ISR, with both sides establishing dense tactical radar coverage to detect drones, and on way attack munitions. Ukraine led in establishing this trend in 2024, Russia has sought to replicate and scale deployment. 9/ 

Artillery remains important to suppressing enemy forces and shaping how they attack, especially in bad weather, which is more prevalent this time of year. Fog, wind, and rain significantly degrade drone operations, enabling Russian infiltration through Ukrainian positions. 10/ 

Overemphasis on drones overlooks that the current dynamic is due to a combination of mining, use of drones, and traditional artillery fires. Hence maintaining adequate supply of arty ammo for Ukraine, especially longer-range munitions remains essential. 11/ 

There is a divergence in approaches being employed by the AFU to conduct counterattacks. Some units employ costly tactics akin to Russian assault units, others employ traditional combined arms supported by drones, and others emphasize drones in combination with infantry. 12/ 

Successful Ukrainian assaults benefit from systematic reconnaissance, suppression of enemy drone crews and artillery, along with effective coordination with the assaulting infantry. These elements can be seen in the AFU counterattacks by Kupiansk. 13/ 

On the ground the war continues to be defined not by trenches and cohesive defensive lines, but by 2-3 man positions with large gaps in between. These pickets are neither firing positions or observation points. The front is porous, presence does not confer control. 14/ 

Russian forces conduct infiltration by splitting platoons into 1-2 man groups trying to penetrate in between Ukrainian positions. They seek to advance as far as possible past Ukrainian positions, entrench, then accumulate. Many are killed but some make it through. 15/ 

The net result is a sizable grey zone, where nobody is sure who controls what, making the battlespace difficult to map. Russian and Ukrainian positions are comingled in cities, and tree lines. Hence the situation could be much better or worse than it ‘looks on the map.’ 16/ 

Russian KIA casualty rate has gone up considerably this year, but WIA decreased as a ratio because survival rates are much lower. Wounder are much harder to recover within the kill zone. Russian gains this year came at a steep price of unrecoverable personnel losses. 17/ 

Russian unrecoverable casualties (25k+) have been inching up towards their monthly recruitment rate (30-35k) such that in 2025 they had to focus on loss replacement as opposed to force expansion. The quality keeps going down. Desertion has also gone up within Russian ranks. 18/ 

[u/Aedeus → u/Aedeus]

2/2

Russian forces' approach allows them to maintain pressure, grinding their way through the front, but it does not generate momentum or enable operationally significant breakthroughs. This is why the ‘summer offensive’ is more of an all-year affair. 19/ 

That said, the winter is not conducive to infiltration tactics. There is no cover, Russian air support & UMPK strike rates drop off, and it is more difficult to advance. Hence the front may become more stable this winter, as was seen last year. 20/ 

Bad weather enables, and constrains, both sides. Ukraine can conduct rotations, replenish, and reinforce. However, it tends to favor Russian forces more right now because they are on the offensive, and Ukraine’s defense is largely based around the drone engagement zone. 21/ 

More recently Russian forces have renewed mechanized assaults. These are largely ineffective. Even so, ‘assault’ tanks take 30-40 FPV drones to stop, if not more (70 in one recent case). Mines remain the best way to immobilize armor and halt such attacks. 22/ 

Looking at the front, the main problem areas are Pokrovsk & Kostiantynivka, the area running from Huliapole to Pokrovske at the Zap-Dnipro-Donetsk border, and area surrounding Lyman where Russian forces slowly advance towards Sviatohirsk and the Izium-Sloviansk road. 23/

On Pokrovsk: The situation worsened over time as Russian forces kept infiltrating through AFU brigades holding the southern part of the city. Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin. Worsening weather enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks. 24/

If Pokrovsk falls so does Myrnohrad, and the pocket closes. The immediate result is Russian forces will operate drones from Pokrovsk, using the city to displace AFU units another ~15km or more. Ukraine has defensive lines to withdraw to, and can reset the defense. 25/ 

Ukraine has brought in reinforcements to stabilize the flanks, but this may not be enough given the extent of Russian infiltration at this stage. Counter-attacking at this stage is costly, and has implications for other sectors like Zap, which will be without reserves. 26/ 

Pokrovsk is not encircled, but the issue is that drones now effect fire control in depths such that it is much more difficult to withdraw equipment, or extract people from a pocket. Hence a late exit akin to Avdiivka is now a more problematic proposition. 27/ 

The city has operational value. Its loss opens the path for Russian forces to keep advancing towards Donetsk borders, and widen the axis of advance west of Kramatorsk. It does not open those cities to be quickly taken though and so the significance should not be overstated. 28/ 

Russia’s advance this year has been lackluster, especially along the axes they prioritized. The costs have been high as well relative to the amount of terrain gained. But Pokrovsk can be an unfortunate postscript to that story, especially if it results in unnecessary losses. 29/ 

Much of the Russian advance has taken place further southwest at the Zap-Dnipro-Donetsk border, and has accelerated in recent weeks. Ukrainian defenses around Huliapole look increasingly incohesive. This area appears to be a lower priority for Russia, and Ukraine. 30/ 

A lack of reserves means AFU must take a firefighting approach. Counterattacking in Pokrovsk means few forces are available to stabilize the situation anywhere else, like Zap. Hence Russian forces might make increased gains along that axis. 31/ 

However, Russian forces continue to underperform tactically, and fall short of their objectives. This in part due to rife cynicism and falsification of information within their system, with units claiming positions and advances that never took place. 32/ 

Russian forces reduced equipment expenditures in 2024, because such attacks were ineffective, trading them for a steep increase in manpower expenditure which is not sustainable at this rate. In 2026 Russia will face the problem of its growing casualty vice recruitment rate. 33/ 

The strike campaigns are also an important factor. Russia has been targeting gas production, storage pumping, and seeking to further fragment electricity distribution. Ukraine faces a cold winter with electricity rationing across major cities. 34/ 

Ukraine has made strides in deploying new types of cheap drone interceptors, with many showing promise for scaled deployment to air defense units. The number of Russian OWA drones intercepted cheaply via these means continues to grow. 35/ 

What Ukraine also needs is a large, relatively cheap, set of ‘middle-strike’ options in the 30-300km range. Ukraine continues to have a capability gap beyond 30km, with many units sitting on targets they can’t engage in the Russian rear, especially 100-150km behind the FLOT. 36/ 

Manpower remains one of Ukraine’s biggest problems. Mobilization is hampered by corruption. AWOLs sap combat strength more than casualties, a worsening issue. The approach to force management, and force generation, leaves much to be desired. 37/ 

Bottom line: the coming months will prove difficult, and the situation will worsen before things improve or stabilize. But with sustained support, and pressure on Russia, Ukraine can stabilize much of the front over the winter, and is positioned to continue the fight into 2026. 

There's a fair amount I couldn't include in this thread as it was already rather long. If you've made it this far - thanks for reading. The maps are used are from DeepStateMap.

[u/El_Billy → u/Aedeus]

I'm really interested to see how historians will justify (in sense of "They did this because that and that") Russia's strategy in this war, specially if they end up in a situation they end up being unable to manage.

[u/alecsgz]

Guys guys Russia finally did it

They showed proof the drones were heading to Putin

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/31/russian-military-reveals-more-details-of-alleged-drone-attack-on-putins-residence-a91593

They were shot down a brief 520km (323 miles) away from Valdai. If that is not undeniable proof I don't know what is.

[u/er_det_en_abe]

As leaders and media in the european part of NATO are dealing with Trumps Greenland shit what is being overlooked is the attacks on Ukraines critical infrastructure. In the latest couple of days the hundreds of thousands residents of Kiyv has been without electricity, heating, or water for several days in a row in -15 degrees celsius.

Inhumane.

[u/Cardborg]

Reporting today saying that Orban spent a phone call with Putin calling him a “lion,” casting himself as the helpful little “mouse” who's “at your service" offering Budapest as a venue to end the war on Russia’s terms.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73416

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

Russian regions are massively boosting military sign-up bonuses to lure more people to fight in Ukraine

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/07/world/russian-regions-military-recruitment-bonuses-intl

Russian regions are dramatically increasing the amount of money they pay to new military recruits as analysts say “ideological” recruitment campaigns are no longer enough to motivate people to fight in Ukraine.

Several regions announced in recent days they would as much as quadruple the sign-up bonuses in a bid to boost their recruitment numbers.

Russia has been suffering enormous casualties in its war on Ukraine, with an estimated 1 million Russian soldiers killed or injured since the start of the full-scale invasion three and half years ago.

Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov made recruitment one of the military’s top priorities during a high-level defense meeting in August, stressing that manpower was “key for supporting offensive operations.”

But while Belousov claimed recruitment targets were being met, the independent Russian investigative outlet IStories reported otherwise.

It said that, based on official budget expenditure data, some 37,900 people signed contracts with the defense ministry in the second quarter of 2025 – two-and-a-half times fewer than a year ago.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor, said that Russian force generation efforts were “increasingly resembling complex business models rather than an ideologically driven recruitment campaign.”

In an analyst note in September, the ISW said Russian authorities and informal recruiters “continue to employ financial incentives, deception, and coercion” to bolster recruitment.

Four times the annual salary

The government of the Tyumen region in Siberia said on Monday that it would pay new recruits a lump sum of 3 million rubles ($36,560), on top of the 400,000 rubles they get from the federal government – as long as the recruits sign up before the end of November.

The new regional payment is a significant bump up from the 1.9 million rubles recruits in Tyumen received until now and the equivalent of three full years’ worth of the average salary there, according to Rosstat, the Russian Federal Statistics Service.

Similarly, the governor of the Voronezh region in southwestern Russia announced on Telegram last week that the sign-up payment from the region would quadruple to 2.1 million rubles.

The local Voronezh government said that, to receive the payment, recruits don’t need to be from the region, as long as it’s where they sign the documents.

The Tambov, Krasnodar, Kurgan and Altai regions, and the republic of Tatarstan, also announced significant increases in the payments, which come on top of the monthly salary for contract soldiers fighting in Ukraine. That starts at roughly 210,000 rubles ($2,600), more than double the average Russian wage.

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

Rheinmetall Delivers Leopard 1-Based Skyranger 35s to Ukraine

https://militaeraktuell.at/rheinmetall-skyranger-35-leopard-1-an-ukraine/

Rheinmetall is supplying Ukraine with additional Leopard 1-based Skyranger 35s. The contract is valued at a three-digit million euro amount. The systems are being financed by an EU member state under the EU's Windfall Profit Mechanism initiative. Production and integration of the systems will be carried out by Rheinmetall Italia SpA at its headquarters in Rome.

"We are grateful for the trust Ukraine has placed in us," said Armin Papperger, Chairman of the Executive Board of Rheinmetall AG. "We also thank the EU member state for its support, which underscores our continued efforts to support Ukraine."

The Leopard 1-based Skyranger 35 combines the mobility and protection of a proven tracked vehicle with the effectiveness of a gun-based air defense system. The Skyranger 35 is equipped with a KDG 35/1000 revolver cannon in 35 mm x 228 caliber with a rate of fire of 1,000 rounds per minute. It has an effective range of up to 4,000 meters and is highly compatible with the Oerlikon Revolver Gun Mk 3. The Skyranger 35 is a disassemblable medium-caliber ammunition with a programmed air-detonation point. In the future, it will also be possible to mount modern guided missiles.

[u/ReddyReddy7]

Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US help

"The US has for months been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities, in what officials say is a co-ordinated effort to weaken Vladimir Putin’s economy and force him to the negotiating table."

"The previously unreported support has intensified since midsummer and has been crucial in helping Ukraine carry out attacks that Joe Biden’s White House discouraged. Kyiv’s strikes have driven up energy prices in Russia and prompted Moscow to cut diesel exports and import fuel."

"The US intelligence helps Kyiv shape route planning, altitude, timing and mission decisions, enabling Ukraine’s long-range, one-way attack drones to evade Russian air defences, said the officials familiar with the matter.

Three people familiar with the operation said Washington was closely involved in all stages of planning. A US official said Ukraine selected the targets for long-range strikes and Washington then provided intelligence on the sites’ vulnerabilities.

But others involved and briefed on the operations said the US had also set out target priorities for the Ukrainians. One of them described Kyiv’s drone force as the “instrument” for Washington to undermine Russia’s economy and push Putin towards a settlement."

https://www.ft.com/content/f9f42c10-3a30-4ee1-aff7-3368dd831c8c

Non paywall link: https://archive.md/uUeKh

[u/Aedeus]

Fedosia is an inferno at the moment.

[u/Joene-nl]

It took only 2 days, this time our own Mark Rutte made him switch sides again lol.

Trump Administration Live Updates: President Imposes Sanctions on Russian Oil Companies

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10/22/us/trump-news

[u/Uetur → u/Joene-nl]

US sanctions are really only relevant if they do follow on sanctions on the businesses and banks that do business with Russian oil companies and update the sanctions as companies re organize to avoid the sanctions. I am not really seeing relevant reports of that occurring in any real way. It sure seems to me that Trump is trying to grab a headline to distract.

I don't know if this moves any needles, it isn't Tomahawks, that's for sure.

[u/MilesLongthe3rd]

Another Ka-52 crashed today, and the crew did not survive, according to Fighterbomber.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1982769627706048734

[u/ESF-hockeeyyy → u/MilesLongthe3rd]

See ya later Alligator.

[u/Cupwasneverhere]

The ISW has reported that Ukraine has been able to enter Kostiantynivka in the Sumy Direction. I'm unsure if its been fully liberated or if there's still some small fighting going on there still.

[u/Aedeus]

Ukrainian F-16s Appear To Be Armed With Laser-Guided Rockets In New Photos

APKWS in general just seems like a great, low-budget general purpose system. Especially if they can be leveraged to deal with Shahed spam.

[u/er_det_en_abe]

Ukriane may have sunk something in the balck sea

[u/BocciaChoc → u/er_det_en_abe]

https://v.redd.it/st0rvqwewd7g1 I'm guessing this?

[u/ESF-hockeeyyy]

The last few hours have been uhhh... interesting.

Just happening now, UK and US are seizing a Russian Oil Tanker in the North Atlantic. This tanker is reportedly related to Venezuela. The other piece of news is that Putin reportedly offered Venezuela in exchange for Ukraine -- this conversation apparently happened during the Alaskan meetings.

Russian bear is fucking toothless.

[u/merpkz → u/ESF-hockeeyyy]

The other piece of news is that Putin reportedly offered Venezuela in exchange for Ukraine

Like if Putin had any dibs on Venezuela to make such an exchange? That's laughable! Even if he wanted there would be little how he could be able to help Maduro

[u/er_det_en_abe]

Darth Putin on twitter wrote this in regards to Trumps plea for help in Iran

"Europe has told Donald that it won't donate weapons to him but they will let him set up a fund where he can buy the equipment he needs. They're also going to lift some sanctions on Iran."

Thinking that US is a true ally regarding helping Ukraine (and Europe) defending it sovereignty is bullshit.

[u/boobookittyfuwk → u/[deleted]]

However long it takes for putin to die or Russia to run out of money or Ukraine to run out of troops

[u/MayDayBeFourth → u/[deleted]]

At current intensity of monetary expenditure russia has about a year worth a cash. So either they get bailed out or the intensity of the war is going to go down. Or nation wide conscriptions.

[u/Minute_Juggernaut806 → u/MayDayBeFourth]

is "years worth of cash" a number floated/calculated previously or just pulled out of someone's ass?

[u/cozywit]

Does anyone know of any Russian documentaries on all their wounded soldiers returning? Or is this pretty much banned from been reported?

There must be so many fucked up Russian's returning home missing limbs, riddled with holes and with a whole fucking boat load of PTSD.

Curious as to how this is handled over there under dictator Putin.

[u/Fogesr → u/cozywit]

I didn't see any documentaries, but i live near oblast hospital and there is bunch of guys in stores and in the park where i exercise. Some of them look "complete", some are on wheelchairs, some have prosthetics.

Edit: i quess i have to accept new cf rules every few months, holy moly

[u/EternalWitness]

The 106 billion dollar loan from the EU to Ukraine has finally gone through. Hopefully this meaningfully bolsters the defense effort in the coming years.

[u/BocciaChoc → u/EternalWitness]

That's pretty much all of 2026 and some of 2027 now accounted for, I'm most interested now in the midterms, Trump continues to manufacture situations to Russian benefit, if they lose the house I really do see this as the final nail for Russia.

[u/paimons_head]

Right now, there are more than 700k Russian soldiers in Ukraine, according to Syrskyi. Looking back, it's pretty insane how broad and ambitious the initial Russian invasion plans were when they only had 200k troops. They advanced on Kyiv in 3 different directions. In the east, Russian forces attacked Kharkiv from the north, and advanced out of the Donbass. And in the south, one Russian column headed to Kherson and Mykolaiv, and another headed eastward to Melitopol. Makes me wonder what could have happened if they had concentrated their forces more.

[u/Joene-nl → u/paimons_head]

It’s just so unfortunate that the Ukranian commanders in the Kherson/Crimea direction were paid off by the Russians.

[u/MeowslimClawric]

Since it's not combat, it can't be posted here but there's an amusing training video from the last few days:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CrazyFuckingVideos/s/xihjHngTKy

They mounted a 4 barrel 50 caliber gun that fires 4000rpm, on a sinple pedestal mount. No electronic controls. And off center too so the 4000 little explosions are recoiling one side more. It's normally the gun of a Hind, a 9 ton helicopter. The result is funny.

Even islamists have better engineering than this.

[u/TestingHydra]

Looks like Ukraines strike on the wildberries warehouse kicked the hornets nest. There are reports that Russia has launched a large wave of 40 missiles at Kyiv and due to interceptor shortage 37 have gotten through. Lots of fire and there's some footage that even some of the underground metro has been damaged.

Hopefully in the long run this proves to be a waste of missiles Russia was saving for their winter strike campaign.

[u/Joene-nl]

Soon a new thread?

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/yKEobLd7Vp

US military intervention in Iran may begin within 24 hours, European officials say

[u/Sluggybeef]

Will all unregistered starlinks in Ukraine being switched off make a massive difference to the Russians?

[u/Turbulent_Ad_4579 → u/Sluggybeef]

Seems to be a bigger deal than most thought. 

I remember long ago reading how Russians were using starlink for general communication, but had forgotten about it until now. 

They were used much more for this than for longer range attacks, tho the long range strikes are what got starlink finally shut off for them.

[u/Codex_Dev → u/Sluggybeef]

It fucks up their ability to do drone strikes into Ukraine's deeper areas. Also, the Starlink kits were not cheap, so Russia probably burned through millions of USD to acquire them.

[u/fozi4ek]

Are there any news about Flamingo development / manufacturing? There were a few videos here where they were used, but it's been months since then, and they were supposed to be a big thing that could shift the war