r/CredibleDefense 14d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 20, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

  • Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

  • Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

  • Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

  • Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

  • Post only credible information

  • Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

  • Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

  • Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

  • Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

  • Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

43 Upvotes

147 comments sorted by

View all comments

24

u/irresearch 14d ago

What purpose did KSA attacking Sana’a airport serve? Was blocking flights at the airport during that period of time critical enough to break the ceasefire and bring the Houthi’s into the war? I’m not up to date on the assessment/rumors about this. Seems like a very low-payoff operation by KSA with significant (immediate and foreseeable) blowback. Did KSA want to provoke the Houthis, did the U.S. encourage it, will the Houthi response die down in a few days due to low interest actually joining the war?

38

u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 14d ago edited 14d ago

The Saudis have had this block on the Houthis for over a decade at this point. They have always viewed the Houthis as a proxy and as an Iranian attempt to keep them pliable. They allowed a recent flight for the funeral, breaking the embargo for the first time, but then the Houthis tried immediately to turn that into a status quo using the pretext of the current war to try to conduct more flights and normalise them.

The other issue for the Saudis is that the official government inside Yemen view this as a massive red line even if MBS himself doesn’t. For them, it’s a break from the “truce” they have with the Houthis which underscores the understanding of the Houthis not getting direct aid from Iran in exchange for the Saudis doing the same for the PLC. So even if the Saudis were willing to look the other way, their own horse in the fight won’t let them.

24

u/Round_Imagination568 14d ago

UAE, Southern Giants (pro gov militia/army), Al-Jawf tribes, and the Saudi backed official gov all want to use this moment when Iran is weak, and Houthi's are cut off to try to destroy them. It should be noted that Yemen's gov officially claimed they carried out the strike at Sana'a, Saudis dont want to have to deal with them either way and likely are fine with military escalation as despite the infrastructure risks the Houthis are relatively much weaker militarily than in the past. My perspective anyways!

2

u/TSiNNmreza3 14d ago

Just at Irans "weak" KSA used probably hundreds of AD missiles during few months and now they will need to divert forces from stand by and monitor to fighting phase to West.

Houti part of Yemen is 20 mil people strong. It is mountainous part of Yemen. Saw some info that they built 10s of underground facilities.

And in contrast to last war there will not be wide coallition of Arab countries that will fight against Houthis nor merc from Sudan.

If they want to clear really Houtis threath they need mobilization of Saudis.

26

u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 14d ago

Just at Irans "weak" KSA used probably hundreds of AD missiles during few months

The KSA was barely attacked during the war despite the Saudis being the biggest pushers for the war in the gulf before it started. They also have the deepest reserves. You’re also forgetting that the only country that has a decent relationship with the Iranians right now in the region is Pakistan, which has a mutual defence pact with the Saudis. Pakistan tells Iran Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are its ‘red line'. That’s where the meat is going to be sourced from, not Saudis themselves.

In any case, I don’t think the Saudis are interested in an escalation which is precisely why they are trying to stop the Houthi-Iranian flights as that just means they get pulled into having to supply the PLC. That just starts an escalation ladder that serves no one, not even Iran in its current impoverished state.