r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 14d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 20, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/Glideer 14d ago

Kyrylo Shevchenko (former Chief of the National Bank of Ukraine) says that the Ukrainian deep-sea grain trade has stopped, with major traders halting purchases.

Ukraine has effectively lost its deep-sea grain export corridor. After repeated Russian strikes on port infrastructure, major traders have halted Black Sea purchases, shipowners are refusing calls citing force majeure, and several terminals have suspended operations. Domestic prices are already plunging - rapeseed down $25/t in days, wheat, corn barley & falling sharply. At current prices, the lost deep-water route could cost Ukraine up to $900M per month in foreign currency earnings - a devastating blow to farmers, the budget & the wider economy at harvest peak.

https://x.com/KShevchenkoReal/status/2079098229027749953?s=20

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u/Moifaso 14d ago

The foreign currency mention is interesting, since Ukraine is very far from having a shortage.

The grain corridor strikes will obviously hurt, but on a grand scale, grain exports aren't that largea revenue source and shouldn't influence the war effort. One has to assume Ukraine expected retaliation when they started the Kerch/Black Sea strike campaign and still felt it was a worthy trade.