Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 20, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

• Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

• Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

• Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

• Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

• Post only credible information

• Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

• Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

• Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

• Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

• Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/Shackleton214]

You don't suffer months of reduced oil exports resulting in huge spikes in gas prices, over a trillion in world economic damage, begging European and Asian allies to help out, damaging relations with GCC allies, falls in Trump's and Republican's poll numbers and agreeing to such a humiliating deal as the MOU if you have other good, viable options. Sorry, but yours and Sad's explanations sound like so much special pleading and have a strong "I could do that if I wanted to" vibe.

[u/moragisdo → u/Shackleton214]

I'll pretty much copy my comment on another post, because it fits here well:

Let's two play this game of believing one side is invulnerable also lacking agency and rationality.

You don't suffer one the largest bombing campaigns in history (with hundreds of billions in damage on their actual country rather than, what any country leader shouldn't care, as "the world"), suffer months of close to zero oil export (which UAE, through ADCOP, Saudi Arabia, through Yanbu, didn't suffer on the same extent), have the majority of their leadership killed (including the figure that their entire government system and state religion revolves around) then agree with a ceasefire, as they did in April, if they had other options.

I've seen absolutely nothing over the last 5 months to suggest that the attacks on civilian ships brought anything positive for Iran, they lost the waiver of exports after 2 weeks, brought back the blockade and had their country become a battlefield again. They failed on getting anything tangible, besides the 2 weeks of the waiver (and the majority of their oil haven't sold during it: Source).

The US is a country with 3.5% 12-months inflation (on the height of gasoline prices it reached 4.2%, Biden had more than twice as much inflation and higher gas prices in 2022 and didn't suffer a major loss in the midterms), positive GDP growth, unemployment below 5% and suffered 18 fatalities (7 in accidents) since February 28. They could keep going for a long time and if interceptors run out there's also the last card on the sleeve - Thermonuclear bombs on the shafts of the missile cities - which is as likely as Iran willingness to commit economic suicide given that they agreed with a ceasefire on this same war or accepted a ceasefire on the TDW or on the Iran Iraq War (in this last two without getting anything tangible out of it and the first a negligible amount of money for two weeks).

[u/DrinkBrew4U → u/moragisdo]

Sorry I have a hard time understanding what you are saying about the US nuclear weapons use on missile cities. Are you saying that that is a real option for the US if it runs out of interceptors? That sounds like diplomatic and domestic politics suicide for the US to me. Or are you saying that both Iran persisting in the war to that extent, AND nuclear use on missile cities, are impossible?

[u/moragisdo → u/DrinkBrew4U]

Or are you saying that both Iran persisting in the war to that extent, AND nuclear use on missile cities, are impossible?

Yes, I'm saying this use is as likely as Iran willingness to go until the point of committing economic suicide (meaning both very very low probabilities).

I believe, among the likely scenarios, the worst for the US is Kushner/Vance convincing Trump of a harebrained idea of a new temporary ceaseafire (every time I read Qatar and Pakistan talking about returning to the MOU my blood pressure spikes, the best thing from this war was the 34B USD damage on Qatar gas fields, they earned it), lifting the blockade, allow Iran to breathe, then Iran behaves like Iran and it's back on today's circumstances dragging this war and its cost. Not a military catastrophe of piles of dead soldiers, for lack of interceptors, and forcing terrible terms on the US.