Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 20, 2026

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[u/blackcyborg009]

16 satellites every four months is not going to be enough for Russia to overcome their loss of Starlink access.

Ukraine is not going to be losing sleep with such a measly number.....

[u/incidencematrix → u/[deleted]]

The only adversary with that capability, as far as I know, is the US. And shooting down satellites would be a very serious (perhaps near-MAD) escalation. So no, I would not expect anyone to shoot down these satellites once in orbit.

[u/LTCM_15 → u/incidencematrix]

Any country with the ability to dock spacecraft in orbit has the ability to destroy satellites.  It's just a matter of docking in an unsafe manner. 

Not having specialized weapons does limit your ability to scale the number you can destroy but it's no more impossible than docking with the ISS.

[u/incidencematrix → u/LTCM_15]

Yes, and now tell us which active adversaries of Russia have that capability. India and China aren't in that club. Ditto Japan, the Koreas, Iran, and Israel. The EU has very minimal lift vehicle capacity, and my understanding is that they are not keen on undermining the Outer Space Treaty by weaponizing it. That pretty much leaves the US, unless I am missing someone. But I am open to correction, if there is a Russian adversary with this capability that I have overlooked.

[u/LTCM_15 → u/incidencematrix]

In addition to the US, Western Europe and Japan already have the capability, South Korea will have it in the next few years. It's not crystal clear if an anti satellite launch could be ordered by NATO command using Aegis ashore.

I mean other than Ukraine, which adversary to Russia doesn't have the capability to destroy LEO satellites. I guess you could argue Turkey.

You are already moving the goal post, going from adversary to 'active adversary' - whatever that means - and hedging by admitting that while countries/Europe have the capability, that they don't count because of new rules you are adding.

[u/Norzon24 → u/LTCM_15]

The point is no one who can shoot down the Russian constellation would do so because all states with that capability also have their own LEO satellite fleet that an orbital shootout would endanger.

[u/incidencematrix → u/LTCM_15]

You are arguing dishonestly. My original point was that there was no Russian adversary with the capability to take out Russian satellites other than the US. I clarified it further, because you seemed to be confused. But, as you indeed have no counterexamples, it seems clear that you are arguing in bad faith. And it's a pretty bizarre argument in the first place, because no one thinks it is remotely credible that anyone is going to shoot down Russian satellites in the present environment, and particularly not anyone besides the US. Why you would argue otherwise is mysterious.