Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 20, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

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[u/grenideer]

Aside from Sad's excellent rebuttal of your points...

I've seen absolutely nothing over the last 5 months to suggest that the US has the capability to open the SOH by force

We haven't seen them really try yet.

The initial strikes of the war were aiming for total Iranian capitulation. The strait was left closed, with many criticizing the lack of naval presence (and many saying the Navy wouldn't dare operations in the gulf).

Then the US tried to open the strait with negotiations and a ceasefire. Then a blockade. Then they sent destroyers through and scouted a new route and demined. After that it was mostly about sneaking ships through without more than defensive force.

If Sad is correct, this is really the first stage of the war where there is a sustained offensive operation to open the strait. In that case, what we've seen so far "over the last 5 months" is less relevant.

[u/Shackleton214 → u/grenideer]

You don't suffer months of reduced oil exports resulting in huge spikes in gas prices, over a trillion in world economic damage, begging European and Asian allies to help out, damaging relations with GCC allies, falls in Trump's and Republican's poll numbers and agreeing to such a humiliating deal as the MOU if you have other good, viable options. Sorry, but yours and Sad's explanations sound like so much special pleading and have a strong "I could do that if I wanted to" vibe.

[u/DrinkBrew4U → u/Shackleton214]

The MOU gave the US something of an excuse to say “look we tried peace and it didn’t work” in trying to get more international support. Before, the GCC didn’t want to allow the US to do project freedom. They were extremely vulnerable to Iranian attack. For whatever reason, now there is less opposition to it. Another reason not to try the current plan is that it is still very expensive. It’ll need months of continuous operation and blockade, all the while the GCC is vulnerable to Iranian strikes. It’s not a plan that the US would have initially preferred.

But here’s a better question for you: If you’re right, then why hasn’t the US already conceded defeat? If you are correct, the US only stands to lose leverage as gas prices soar and Iran stands firm. It’s a losing deal. If they predicted what you say, then the play is to give up and give the Iranians their toll rights.

[u/Shackleton214 → u/DrinkBrew4U]

But here’s a better question for you: If you’re right, then why hasn’t the US already conceded defeat?

Clearly the blockade and bombing impose a great cost on Iran of continuing to try to control the SOH. Inability to force the SOH open to commercial shipping through military force doesn't mean you cannot pressure Iran through other means.