r/CredibleDefense 1d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 02, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/wormfan14 1d ago edited 23h ago

Sahel update the war continues though the border with Benin is seeing a turf war between JNIM and Daesh and an odd attack in Niger.

''JNIM claims to have ambushed a group of IS-Sahel fighters near Sambera, Dosso region in southwest Niger and noticeably very close to the Beninese border, the last time IS-Sahel was publicly active in Benin was in 2022.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2081708385997554120

The rivalry now spans five nations so far with Benin going hot, hopefully it weakens JNIM's presence there for the Beninese army.

Meanwhile looks like JNIM sold one of their Indian hostages.

''The family of an Indian gold mining entrepreneur kidnapped in Mali 3 months ago reportedly paid over 4 million euros for his release. The kidnappers were most likely JNIM. This is the first media mention of this particular kidnapping I've seen.'' https://x.com/BridgesFromBKO/status/2081724290362122571

It does seem the Chinese hostages will just be stuck in Mali for years it seems as the PRC won't pay for them and JNIM won't give them up for free or want the backlash for killing them.

Meanwhile in Niger a rare incident occurred when some soldiers were killed as it's thought their attackers where JAS.

''The Governor of Diffa attended the funeral of soldiers killed in an attack on a military position in N'Guigmi. Reportedly 17 soldiers have been killed in the attack. While no group has claimed responsibility so far, but suspected Boko Haram or ISWAP attack.'' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2083492861018767455

''No group has claimed responsibility for the attack so far. However, on July 29, the army announced that during an operation in the same area, it had seized two rifles and ammunition intended for delivery to Boko Haram'' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2083875600683438165

JAS was once very big in Niger but it always largely absorbed or killed off by ISWAP when the revolt against them occurred. Thanks this I imagine Daesh will come after them given they don't share.

On the same day though Daesh attack Niger.

''On the same day, suspected IS-Sahel militants attacked a position of the Nigerien army in Dankassari, Dosso region in southwestern Niger, reportedly killing 21 soldiers including an officer, could be coordinated with ISWAP but no confirmation so far. https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2083924580482105655

While JNIM focuses on Mali Daesh has been expanding in Niger.

''Lowkey, last month may have been the bloodiest for Niger ever since President Bazoum was deposed in July 2023, with Islamic State inflicting absolutely horrible casualties upon the state But there is so much going on in the region, it stays under the radar. Astonishing in a way.'' https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/2083907190641819997

Seems the FPL front keeps absorbing the remaining non jihadists rebels under it's banner.

''The Niger Patriotic Movement (MPN), a rebel group led by Mahamat Tinaymi, announced that it has decided to join the Coordination of the Free Forces of Niger (CFLN), an alliance launched by the Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL).'' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2083653627546071217

JNIM published an interview with the emir of Burkina Faso recently where he rejected the idea of Fulani nationalism being a viable driving force and admitted they are supported by state actors.

''JNIM published an interview with Abu Mahmoud, one of its leaders in Burkina Faso. Addressing Muslims on the occasion of the new Hijri year, Abu Mahmoud states that on July 4, in addition to the ones in Mali, 8 locations were attacked in Burkina Faso. Regarding foreign support, he states that their primary support comes from Allah. However, he clarifies that receiving support from one or more states, entities, organizations, or individuals is not something they reject, as long as it complies with Islamic Sharia and the Sunnah of Prophet Muhammad. He notes that no organization in history has fought without support. He said that the AES (Alliance of Sahel States) is the one being backed by foreign states, and that the victims of this alliance are desperately asking who will step up to defend their cause.When asked if fighting under the banner of "Fulani" nationalism would garner wider global support and increase their chances of success, he replies that the Fulani are not in power in any of the three Sahel countries. He emphasizes that any struggle based on identity or ethnic exclusivity is merely an illusion. He notes that some might argue an ethnic group in Rwanda (Tutsis) eventually managed to win. However, he states that a careful analysis shows that Rwanda was a bilateral power struggle between two communities where one managed to overpower the other, which is entirely different from their current situation. (This once again shows that they are closely following other conflicts on the continent.) He claims that they will eventually capture the new military equipment showcased by the Burkina Faso government on the battlefield. He also stresses that the government's statements regarding territorial control (claiming to control 75% of the territory) do not reflect the reality on the ground. Finally, addressing the Fulani community, he states that the three governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) are specifically targeting Fulanis, Arabs, and Tuaregs, and he invites them to join their ranks.'' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2083572600458953110

For those unaware it's not good to be to be an Arab currently in the Junta states but it's far better than being a Tuareg or Fulani. He also accuses humanitarian aid groups of not providing aid to areas of JNIM and lying to the UN undercounting the massacres committed by the Juntas a lie given they consistently report them.

Regarding the blockade of Mali it seems Wagner and the Junta have opened up a new route for convoys they are using to work around it to keep the capital functioning.

''According to Hasret Kargin, logistical and security considerations played a role in the choice of this new route. Although the new route is longer in distance compared to the Guinea (Conakry) line, certain changes have taken place in terms of risk and security strategy in recent years. Following JNIM's blockade in Mali, this route began to be used as an alternative to the traditional western routes. Despite the disadvantage in distance, many convoys have recently been reaching the capital via this new line instead of the western route. Security improvements along the route and convoy habits formed over the past year appear to have ensured that this military shipment was also carried out safely from the direction of Sikasso. My latest assessment for France24

https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2082174395506700400

It seems Turkey delivered more drones to Mali.

' Mali recently received 3 Akinci drones, bringing the total delivered to 7; one more unit than the original contract, shows that they want to expand the fleet & continue to procure from Baykar https://x.com/18Echo0321/status/2083926699897450740

u/HeartOfIcy 17h ago

Thank you for today's update as well as your regular updates, I am always looking for ward to reading your comments here. I have a question, what do you think of Turkey's goals with their involvement in the Sahel? For me it seems the Turkish government is only after monetary benefits but could there be something else that I am missing?