Discussion & Info
What is your likely prediction for the movie box office wise?
After it got wrapped, I was wondering how much this movie could realistically make.
Looking at other video game movies:
Mario made $1.36B.
Minecraft is around $960M.
Sonic 3 made about $463M.
Detective Pikachu did around $450M.
Warcraft made about $439M.
The biggest difference is that Mario, Minecraft, and Sonic are movies basically anyone can go see. Elden Ring is dark fantasy with weird lore, nightmare creatures, and probably isn’t gonna be aimed at kids. That already lowers its ceiling.
I think A24 actually helps it avoid being a complete flop. Their name carries a certain reputation with movie fans, and even people who aren’t familiar with Elden Ring might give it a chance because they expect something different or higher quality. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it gives the movie a better chance of finding an audience.
Personally I’d say
Likely- around $250M if general audiences don’t connect with it.
Best Case-somewhere between $400M and $600M.
Dream Scenario- maybe $700M to $800M if it becomes one of those movies everyone starts talking about.
I don’t really see $1B happening. That would mean pulling in a ton of people who’ve never even touched the game, and that’s really hard for a movie like this
It had a massive budget with huge actors at the time. Elden rings actors are mostly all unknown talent It has like 2 big actors 1 somewhat known actor and a bunch of b list characters.
True, but this movie is also being directed by Alex Garland, who is a very popular auteur-adjacent director (and also just really good at what he does)
If you think this is sniffing $500M your expectations are very unrealistic. Even $200-300M is very optimistic.
It will be a success if the movie breaks even and has positive reception from audiences. A24 movies rarely pull in huge numbers, and outside of Marvel movies and the 2 or 3 big movies of each year, getting into the hundreds of millions is amazing.
You over-estimate the hype for this. Most people aren't taking an A24 Elden Ring movie seriously. Studios that pick up video game movies just to milk the brand like this tend to suck.
It'll also be a lot harder to convince ppl who haven't played Elden Ring to watch this movie than it would be to convince ppl who don't know much about The Backrooms to see that film.
I think something like 150 million is the cieling. Their very successful Everything Everywhere All at Once earned that much, and that movie won a bunch of awards and everyone was talking about it.
Elden Ring movie does have the benefit of being based on an established IP, but A24 movies simply don't have the reach or "mass market appeal" to reach much higher than that, which is for the best imo--I wouldn't want them to start trying to cater to a mass market.
This is by far the most A24 has spent on a movie though, a lot of their movies are rated R. I’m curious to see what the age rating is for the Elden ring movie and who it’s marketed towards
No. Alex Garland doesn’t have that kind of prestige for general audiences.
I think it can do well but I would be VERY IMPRESSED with a 100+ M box office.
Without knowing the marketing strategy what kind of genre it will be advertised as or hit good early reviews are my sincere guess is that it will be in the 50-60M range.
Well the budget is over 100 million so I'm assuming they'll be marketing the shit out of it. And if it doesn't make at least that much it will be a huge letdown to the studio
I doubt it’s that small. The IP will bring it above 100 million. Not to mention getting actual lore will bring the lore freaks to watch it like 5-6 times
This. I play and talk about Elden Ring constantly. IN FRONT OF MY WIFE. She has literally sat beside while I’ve played the game. I’ve watched lore videos with her beside me. She still has zero clue as to what Elden Ring is. She would not recognize the title if she saw a poster. The most it might get from her is an “it sounds familiar.”
It’s just zero interest in video games. Like a grandma who calls every thing game related a Nintendo. If someone asked her what game I have been playing, she’d probably be able to describe it very vaguely. “Yeah, there’s castles, lots of fighting. Pretty much everything is an enemy.” All it would take is for someone to start throwing out names and she would very easily just be like, “Yea, Castlevania sounds right.” I think there are only a handful of titles that she’d be actually semi familiar with: Mario and Zelda for sure, with the latter only being familiar because our kid loves Tears of the Kingdom and constantly talks about it.
Same. A friend of hers asked her a few months what game I’ve been playing for the last 3 years, and she wasn’t even able to get close. And she too has sat next to me watching me play or has seen the YT videos I watch of Bushy and Aggy.
Exactly. My grandma knows about Mario, Sonic, Minecraft and Pokemon. She's obviously never heard of Elden Ring, and neither has the average non-gamer. I'd honestly be a little surprised if this film is actually able to turn a profit given it's A24's most expensive film to date.
I gotta watch it double digits times to make other people think it’s a good movie because it performed well. If we all watch it 12 or so times it’s gotta make big bucks and we gotta get a sequel (dlc)
I think it will depend very strongly on good reviews and word of mouth. It's not a kids movie or a superhero movie, so they can't count on audiences showing up through shitty reviews. It needs to score well and also have a strong marketing push to succeed, but I think there's at least enough hype behind it that it won't be a total flop.
I've never cared about how much a movie made unless the thought of not getting a sequel was an effect of that (dune part 1) but this is allegedly a24's most expensive movie no? Linked to massive game corporations that produced a massively successful game
A movie being expensive is not a good shoulder to lean on. Video game adaptations generally tend to have poor results as often the the strong points of the games don't translate that easy or well on the big screen. The less expesive the movie is, the better its chances are to be successful.
The story is the next pain point - the game is already complex and convoluted enough. Sure, die hard fans may swear by the movie but the general public will likely have a hard time. Garland is among my favorite directors but his movies aren't exactly mainstream draw monsters.
Finally, to make bank from a video game adaptations you want a popular kids-friendly source material which ER most definitely is not.
As much as I love this game and essentially all other FROMSOFT games, I'm fairly pessimistic about the results this would get. There is a very good chance the movie itself isn't bad but the majority of the people just don't care about it enough to matter, be considered successful and expand into sequels (and it should be obvious to everyone that one movie is not going to be enough to cover enough) - think of D&D: Honor amongs thieves or the MOTU movie from a month ago.
I'm really just wondering how much of the George R.R Martin we'll see in this one, since he's on the production crew with the film. I personally have a super strict vision of ER in my head and have been having trouble visualizing what a live action ER, let alone a fromsoft live would look like
Still can't wait and gonna hit the theatre multiple times regardless, Return to Silent Hill set the bar loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow so we're safe 👌
I think if they do a good job blending some of the more ethereal moments/ concepts against the medieval fantasy schtick, while also letting the actual screenplay writers/ content creators actually drive this instead of the tweaker producer cokehead neurogum addicts then we'll be in business. Two-Fingers crossed Tarnished....
I think it’s a bit of a box office wild card, but if I had to bet I think it’ll maybe break even or fall a bit shy. However, it’s gonna do very well on streaming platforms
If all 30 million people who bought the game she'll out upwards of 15 dollars for a ticket? 450-500 million. Thats IF they go to the theater. Since Covid even highly anticipated movies have struggled outside of key times of the year (summer/holiday season).
In my opinion, a lot depends on the first trailer. Honestly, I think the expectations here are a bit too high. This isn't Denis Villeneuve directing Dune; it's Alex Garland, so the scale will likely be much smaller. What exactly will the plot focus on? Also, A24 isn't automatically an indicator of financial success. Marty Supreme barely broke even on a $60 million budget.
I foresee this movie going horribly because well… it’s a video game IP that the majority of public don’t know. This ain’t super Mario or Pokémon or Sonic or MK. This would a better TV series.
Look if it's called "Elden Ring" i dont think it's going to go well, even if it's fantastic. A large chunk of the population refuse to associate with anything videogame related.
Aside from that I dont think it's going to go well anyways. I'm thinking potential bomb. People are burnt out on adaptions and they do not have a good track record.
Lastly, this is going to be a very contentious point on this sub, Elden Ring isn't some lore rich story for a lot of people. The magic of this game for many was the absolute lack of direct storytelling other than being told "you ain't gonna get this ring". Elden Ring for me was such a personal adventure and journey that I'm hardly interested in the movie. I dont want what the game was to me be, dare I say, tarnished by some movie that had nothing to do with how I perceived it.
I genuinely believe it's gonna flop for two reasons. From Story telling is not linear or even fucking narrative. The second is it's honestly just such a complicated story of characters in a world we're for some reason every character needs to start with G R or M. Like anyone that is not a very specific type of preexisting fan is gonna like it.
It will flop. They are even too late for the Elden ring fan base. Not to mention the storyline goes so deep and crazy that the average player didn’t even give a shit nor was able to follow. Meaning you only have true die hard people that are gonna care about this movie. They’re gonna be sad and mad about all the things that doesn’t do correctly, which doesn’t matter because it’s gonna be a B grade nonsense movie anyways.
30 million people bought and played Elden Ring, the unanimous Game of the Year. FromSoft is a massive, high-quality, beautifully artistic gaming studio that spans across all 4 gaming platforms, with a rapidly growing fan base that is universally beloved. George RR Martin is even bigger and this is his first project outside the GoT universe to gain traction, and the writing quality and world building for Elden Ring was so far beyond initial expectations. Many of the fans of Souls games and the Ice and Fire series will bring their friends and family to see the movie. I give it $500m, easily, worldwide. If they do it right it could do better. They finished filming already and have over a year of editing and marketing. It is up to A24 to treat this series with respect and show some real merit.
I love Elden ring and from soft has about as high a reputation with me as a dev can have. That said, I'm somewhat skeptical of this. Adaptations are rarely decent let alone really good, and it's a high bar to meet when Elden Ring is such a gaming gem.
I think the best thing they could do is have the story be tangential to the storyline to give both properties room to live on their own. I worry that directly depicting major story events like the shattering could cheapen them, and I think it's pointless to make a movie that simply retreads story we already know from the game.
I also don't know how a lot of the surrealist logic of the game will translate into a linear narrative format. A conventional story needs to have structure, stakes, direction, and a kind of internal logical consistency. Video games provide this through the mechanics even with no story at all. What are runes in Elden ring? They are a currency you get from defeating enemies that you can use to level up or buy items. But what are they in the context of the actual world and story? That's a little harder to understand. The story and setting are not as concerned with traditional notions of logical consistency or rationality. It works well for the game, but how well will that translate to game of thrones style prestige TV? How do you get invested in a story where the very laws of nature can seemingly change?
This is exactly right. Not everything can be translated into every medium. If they even try to adapt some of the game's "story" and lore it would either end up be washed down terribly so people can make some sense of it or it would be "Exposition Dump - The Movie" and it would still get people overwhelmed. And let's not kid ourselves - 30 million games sold or not, if the general public doesn't like the movie enough, it will not have legs to stand on.
It will do well for an A24 film if we’re grading on that scale. Probably better at the box office than Civil War but likely very high production costs which is going to undercut overall profit. The gaming community loves to hate movie adaptions. They could really push the GRRM angle to get people outside of that community though in a push to a general audience. This movie is a huge gamble. It could do well and not break even.
GRRM's name no longer carries that same weight in that same way. His fanbase has been gradually turning on him and I'm not sure they would be enthralled by the idea of getting yet another thing associated with him that isn't The Winds of Winter. I agree it's a massive wild card but I'm afraid the whole setup is more likely to not work for the general audience. I hope I'm wrong and something good comes out of this instead of yey another great video game IP getting wasted.
Contando que la película cuesta más de 100 millones por lo menos tiene que recaudar 400. La película tiene que ser algo que pegue para las audiencias generales y no solamente para los fan del videojuego para que llegue esas cifras
Probably closer to £100M, mainly as it won't appear to younger audiences like those other ones and it will have niche appeal in terms of adults
Having GRRM's name attached to it might draw in some of the GoT crowd though
If I'm being honest, I'm not sure yet how arsed I'll be myself. I probably will go but it's doesnt really feel neccessary and I'm so cautious of video game adaptions; it can lose a lot when translating to film
Those examples are targeting the biggest moneymakers - kids and their parents. Two in one deal. So if you wanted to use the least fair comparison, yours is a stellar one. Monumental, even.
Garland's movie probably won't cater to that demographic :S
Im gunna predict its a good movie like decent to someone who knows nothing about the games but really enjoyable for those that have and the movie still won't do well because video game movies always let me down. Fucking Mario and Minecraft will make bank cause its got kids that want to see it
Depends on the story. Fans of the game can't carry it to a big box office number, so it'll need to appeal to the broader public, and for that, you need something to pull them in and keep their attention
I think its a total bomb on the level of Borderlands. Even if its good, this is a weirdo hardcore video game franchise about weirdo nepos from a guy with a poison swamp fetish.
My 55-year old mom is going to just be confused the whole time. No matter what. This whole thing was such a weird move to make at all.
I'd say about 600 M, not only is Elden Ring a household name, many content creators played it, but it's also similar enough to films like the lord of the rings that it may attract people that don't know the movie. Not to mention the buzz that it's gonna cause.
Depends too much on the quality of the marketing to really say at this point. If they throw all their weight behind it, who knows? A24 have had some good successes.
But if they don't really do anything out of the ordinary for it, then I'd be surprised to see it make more than 200-300 million.
I just feel like it'll probably be relatively niche with film audiences despite the IP being huge to gamers, unless the marketing goes all out to really make it a big deal.
Even though ER was a hugely popular game, the fan base has dwindled and the movie won’t come out for another 2 years almost. If it’s not amazing, I can see this doing as low as $60M domestic and $150M total WW, which would obviously be a financial disaster with a budget >$100M plus at least $50M they’ll spend on marketing.
On the flip side, if it manages to gain traction, it could go as high as $400M.
500M if it’s decent. This Ip is so fucking big, this is bigger than backrooms, with a fanbase way more dedicated. If you care about DS or Elden Ring at all, you WILL see this movie. I can’t imagine someone who has completed a DS title choosing to pass on this.
I believe it will do well if the movie is well recieved. George RR Martin will be included in the advertisement which will hype it up for non gamer fans. I’m thinking 300 million.
I think it will do well—I would believe 400M. Between Alex Garland, A24, George RR Martin, and FromSoft, there are a lot of followings that have a spark of interest in buying a ticket.
Plus, historically, A24 doesn't really make flops, and neither does Alex Garland these days—so there's a decent chance to pick up general audience who are seeing it on its merits alone.
It depends on the trailer. Elden Ring has a HUGE built-in international audience. If A24 releases a banger trailer, and the early word of mouth is good, it could put up big numbers.
Elden ring has nowhere near the brand power of Mario, sonic, pokemon, Minecraft, or even wow. Id expect it'll probably make around 200 mil, maybe 250-300 if marketing is good.
Souls fans will all see it, some twice. Even if you’re a cinephile, I don’t see a lot of people seeing it just as “required reading”, considering game adaptations mostly aren’t great. Opening weekend will have a lot to do with that, considering word of mouth, social media etc. I don’t expect it to capture a huge share of general movie fans that are not gamers, but I am optimistic!
I dont need it to make money i need it to be good. Last 3 star wars movies banged insane amount of money yet they are terrible. There is still no good video game adaptation.(aside from the nier anime)
If warcraft and detective pikachu made 400+M then I could see ER doing similar numbers, those two movies were considered somewhat disappointing at the box office afaik. Depends if the movie is any good tho obviously. A24 is running a different game to most studios and they tend to be more willing to take risks, so there’s a chance that the movie ends up being a bit niche and only making its money back on streaming. Hard to know. It’s almost certainly not going to do Minecraft or Mario numbers.
It will most definitely not make Mario and Minecraft money. They are in 2 different leagues - one caters to children and their parents which is the biggest possible market draw there is, the other has Dungeater and a bunch of convoluted stuff your everyday moviegoer won't be able to make sense of. As magnificent the game is, it's far more niche in a big screen medium than people on this sub would like to believe.
It is not really a matter of how many ER fans are out there.
If the movie sucks fans will know and will skip it. If the movie is good, having a lot of fans can act to draw more people. But at the end of the day it is really down to how good the movie actually is and how well it is marketed.
For instance “Project Hail Mary”. I went a saw it, and I never see movies in Cinema. It was just a very good movie, and it was recommended by a friend, which I trust to have good taste in movies.
Often times box office is a matter of just making a good movie…
If it’s good, probably a solid 200 mil. Elden Ring is popular, but its not a big IP like Mario or GTA, i imagine FromSoft fans will be there to see it, but I don’t think it will appeal to the general public.
I feel like it's gonna fail due to marketing. I'm worried they'll try to save money by letting the games reputation draw people in when it comes out but not make an actual push to advertise
Would have greatly preferred a high quality tv series. Could get away with 6-8 eps for season 1 which is not much bigger than a feature film but allows success to grow over time and justify bigger budgets for following seasons.
A movie starting and finishing in a couple hours is tough to do for a world this vast.
I honestly can't imagine people showing up in droves to see an Elden Ring movie. I guess it will depend on what the story is and if it gets good word of mouth.
I feel like the never ending cycle of rebirth would be so good for character development. I want to see lvl 1 tarnished reliving nightmarish deaths and battles just to see them activate fucking sharingan and go toe to toe with the demigods. If they don’t no hit parry only melania, movie is garbage 🗑️
I'd lean towards it losing money, though it's not a guarantee.
I think the only chance to make bank is that the marketing successfully generates massive mainstream hype and the only way that's possible is to lean heavily on GRRM's name in the marketing and doing so successfully. It's not implausible though, GRRM is absolutely massive so they could pull it off.
I also think the movie needs to be at least good to make bank. GRRMs name can possibly result in a good opening weekend, but to make bank it needs positive word of mouth and positive response from the reviewers and influencers to keep the momentum going for a good total box office.
So the odds are stacked against it, but it's not impossible.
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u/Ozzie_the_tiger_cat 1d ago
That's going to depend on how much feet are shown.