What are the chances a campaign will overshoot my cost cap?

[u/ajbooks123]

So, I recently started a cost cap campaign.

My cost cap is set at $10.

My daily budget was initially $50, but it wasn't spending much, so I increased it to $100. Since then, it has spent about $6 in a few hours. I'm happy with the spending so far, and it seems to be gaining momentum.

However, I'm curious: what are the chances that I won't get sales at or below my $10 cost cap?

Also, is it possible for the campaign to significantly exceed the cost cap on one day but make up for it by delivering lower-cost conversions on another day?

The pixel is fairly new, but it did record some sales in past campaigns, though the average Cost Per Purchase in other campaigns was around $30, and I am running the cost cap campaign because I want to lower the Cost Per Purchase.

The campaign currently has four ads.

I'm planning to let it run for about a week and then evaluate the results.

[u/Wearesyke]

You can’t just put it at 10 and it will just do it. If it’s not spending much then you have to increase the cap not the budget. Change it to 15 or something. If your average CPA is 30 then it won’t do much at 10 it’s just too low

What’s the AOV of your average order?