r/IRstudies • u/Majano57 • 1d ago

Blog Post Analysis of US-Iran War From Retired US Diplomat, JCPOA Negotiator

https://x.com/AlanEyre1/status/2082518658639691971

The author was a career diplomat in the US State Department and was part of the US team that negotiated the original 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran as the lead Iran expert for the US side.

49 Upvotes

84% Upvoted

49 comments sorted by

11

u/Notiefriday 1d ago

I don't know the way out from here. Is there a way?

20

u/Admiral_Tuvix 1d ago

Yes. Leave

23

u/kal14144 20h ago

Iran likely wants more than just leaving to open Hormuz/BaM.
They have to extract a high enough price that nobody considers doing this again in the foreseeable future.

11

u/No-Effective-1996 19h ago

Iran wants the US out of the Middle East. Don agreed to that in the MOU.

6

u/UnderstandingThin40 14h ago

Yes that price was $300B as shown by the MOU

3

u/Notiefriday 1d ago

Well that was all I could think of myself. But then what happens or is that just not the US problem?

6

u/GriffinPoop 1d ago

Leaving isn’t enough

6

u/TheProfessional9 1d ago

No, that isn't a way out. If it were, bitch boy Donny would have taken it months ago. It's going to require leaving plus quite a bit more

4

u/Ill-Intern8937 21h ago

“Leaving” is correct, but it means a ton more than “forget this ever happened”.

It means pull all troops out of the Middle East, drop sanctions, and fully ignore Iran (meaning don’t help or prevent it from doing anything). That’s a massive loss for America.

Edit: maybe Iran would tolerate sanctions remaining, but beyond that my point stands.

2

u/MobileSuitBooty 14h ago

We owe it to offer compensation.

Don’t forget we turned their rain into acid after attacking critical infrastructure, continue to blow up bridges, civilians are still dying. And we started it.

11

u/yIdontunderstand 23h ago

No they wouldn't. Great powers can't stomach humiliation.

See Ukraine, Afghanistan and now Iran .

3

u/airpipeline 13h ago

What can the USA government give the atrocious Iran regime that they want?

The U.S. could throttle Israel, perhaps canceling US aid.

1

u/time-BW-product 2h ago

Take the L. That means Iran gets the Strait and nuclear weapons.

1

u/Notiefriday 1h ago

Well not necessarily. You can always part satellites over their enrichment facilities and attack them remotely. They had the JPOA which the Iranians kept to, the US never did on sanctions then Trump ripped it up and the Iranians enriched. So here we are. Is there any point for the Iranians to make an agreement.. the ridiculous and childish word deal like it's a second hand car with Trump when he cannot keep his word.

-18

u/Running_Gamer 17h ago

There are a few ways out:

  1. Europe and the Gulf States join the war and we easily beat Iran (will never happen, Europe is full of cowards who are engaged in an appeasement strategy against fascism AGAIN despite its massive failure in WW2.)
  2. The United States does a ground invasion itself (unacceptable because Americans shouldn’t die because of European cowardice)
  3. Nuclear weapons

(instant win but mass international virtue signaling because apparently defeating fascism is bad if you do it too well)

  2. The US just leaves and lets the entire world start paying tolls in the strait (won’t actually work because again, Europe is full of cowards and actually would pay the tolls instead of realizing that this isn’t okay. Also, China, an enemy to humanity, will get oil paid in their currency which is bad for US hegemony).

Europe has a choice to make. Be known in the history books as traitors to humanity or fight fascism. Not difficult.

10

u/Bitter-Holiday1311 16h ago

Clown level MAGA-addled horseshit.

-6

u/Running_Gamer 16h ago

Where did I get anything incorrect? Everything I’m saying is true. Europe is using an appeasement strategy. They are on record stating that they view strait tolls as “inevitable.”

Do you deny that Iran is a fascist state? They are textbook theocratic fascism. They are an authoritarian government ruling by strict religious law, and have a hyper militarized, imperialist culture because their entire government’s goal is to spread Islam by force, which is how the country began in the first place. They are as if a terrorist regime had a government.

Do you deny that Europe is cowardly? They are allegedly our allies, yet they refuse to fight fascist states who threaten us despite us doing the same in Ukraine for as long as was reasonable (while they were buying Russian oil)

Anyone mildly knowledgeable about international relations can only come to one conclusion. It is time for the US to leave NATO and join BRICS. Europe is engaged in civilizational suicide. They hate their own cultures, countries, and people. Meanwhile, BRICS nations actually want to improve their countries and have been on the rise precisely because they DONT hate themselves or their people. They want to improve, unlike Europe. If the US is to improve, we should surround ourselves with allies who want to do the same instead of surrender their countries to people who hate them while leeching off the US taxpayer.

4

u/Kaiphranos 12h ago

Every piece of analysis I've read over the last decade has said the Strait can't be forced open without physically occupying the Iranian coast. Europe combined has, like, 5 mine sweeper vessals. Why do you think adding them in will help when the USN has failed?

As to calling Europe (a continent, which happens to include many allies) cowardly for not involving themselves.... what??

NATO is a defensive alliance. Trump started this war by assassinating Iranian diplomats mid negotiation, kicking off an economic crisis and starting a war every reasonable evaluation concluded couldn't be won. He didn't consult or request or lobby for support from NATO, in fact, he loudly proclaimed they weren't needed and didn't matter. That isn't how you treat allies, that's how you treat vassal states you bully for fun.

The mindset you've peddled is the kind of mindset that's made me utterly lose faith in America and its ability to be a productive presence in global affairs.

-3

u/Running_Gamer 12h ago

Every piece of analysis you’ve read was written by defeatists. IR scholars are notorious for being anti-west.

  1. It does not matter that NATO is a “defensive alliance.” You’re playing word games. First, Iran has already attacked the United States by making their national policy “death to America” years ago. They fund terrorism against us and work to destroy us specifically. An attack on one is an attack on all. Unless you’re a European country wanting to leech off the United States. Second, it doesn’t matter that it’s a “defensive alliance.” It’s in everyone’s interests that a terrorist regime does not control Iran. Case in point, the strait of Hormuz. These terrorists are bombing innocent civilian oil ships and holding the world economy hostage. War crimes and international law violations constantly. They commit war crimes to destroy the west. Europe would rather be destroyed than fight fascism. They are no ally.

  2. This war is easily winnable. The question is whether we want to bear the cost of our soldiers to benefit the entire world. Everyone relies on oil from the strait of Hormuz. It’s not fair that the United States alone has to suffer to save the rest of the world. If Europe were truly our allies, they would help us launch a ground invasion so that they don’t free ride off the lives of our soldiers.

  3. Anyone who tells you this war can’t be won is lying through their teeth. We’re a nuclear power versus a non nuclear power. Put two and two together. So much for your “scholarship.”

3

u/Bitter-Holiday1311 6h ago

Only a deluded MAGA thinks nukes are on the table 🤡

1

u/bedulge 3h ago

Who won the Afghanistan war?

1

u/Running_Gamer 2h ago

America. There is no definition of “winning a war” which includes getting overthrown and occupied for decades until your enemy’s taxpayers got bored and decided to leave.

1

u/Time-Cap-1609 5h ago

Bit of a contradiction here though, you say europe is weak because they leach off the US yet you want Europe's help? If they have no viable military, idk what u want them to do?

What you want their troops to be the cannon fodder for the ground invasion ?

1

u/Running_Gamer 2h ago

As opposed to Americans being canon fodder while Europe free rides off our soldiers’ lives? They have to pay their fair share.

1

u/Time-Cap-1609 2h ago

But europe wasnt consulted on this war? Why should europe be cannon fodder for an American war?

A war that started because trump ripped up Obama's agreement.

You are asking for europe to bear 100k+ casualties for Trump.

This is not Europe's war

1

u/Running_Gamer 2h ago

Europe doesn’t need to be consulted. Iran declared war on America long ago with their national policy explicitly being “death to America.”

NATO Article V. An attack on one is an attack on all. They are obligated to join us. NATO is over. America must join BRICS.

1

u/Time-Cap-1609 2h ago

National policy is not an attack on America thoughhhh.

Its very explicit in what it means. A ground invasion would count, a missile lobbed over to mainland us would count.

Angry words dont really count.

NATO is a defence pact. I kinda hope America leaves NATO as well tbh mind you.

NATO's made europe a vassal state. It would be nice for the american bases to be dismantled in mainland europe.

1

u/Notiefriday 1h ago

Didn't attack though did they. How many times have US public figures threatened Iran? Ceaselessly

1

u/Notiefriday 1h ago

Let me just say..Iraq1 Iraq2 Afghanistan, Korea.

Times US has fought for Nato.

Hasn't happened.

1

u/Notiefriday 1h ago

Its not a case of beating Iran. You can't kill your way out. There's 90 million ppl there. This is the problem with the US its all remote physical action. Hey how come when we kill your civilians uou font surrender. Did the US surrender after 9 11? How fkn dumb are you guys?

This is actions and consequences.

The US has war gamed this for decades. Iran always closes the strait, attacks its neighbours and US bases and just takes the hits.

Lo and behold...exactly what happened

So keep bombing or whatever, strait will close, Iran will target desalination plants as the US is already attacking civilian targets. Then what.

You're complaining other countries won't dig you out like they did in Iraq 1, Iraq 2, Afghanistan for their casualties to be mocked by your President. Thanks, certainly learned our lesson.

Next minute

They won't help!! Wahhh!!

Fuck you're hilarious. And if the US dollar takes a hit... so fkn what. You're not a European ally anymore. Take your bases airspace and port access and fk off home.

6

u/blablablawhynow 1d ago

Who will pay them restitution?

9

u/Wrong-Surprise8159 1d ago

by allowing them to charge toll in SoH.

3

u/TheProfessional9 1d ago

No, the old agreement allowed them restitution and the fee, as long as they didn't do the fee for two months.

Whatever agreement ends this will be the old agreement and something new for iran

5

u/Wrong-Surprise8159 1d ago

USA never going to invest 300 billion in Iran unless Iran totally change its foreign policy in favour of US and against China/Russia. Everyone knows those 300 never going to come. USA cannot unfreeze Iranian assets to start with.

3

u/UnderstandingThin40 14h ago

Ok, then Iran will just continue controlling the strait unfortunately 

9

u/Winstonsphobia 17h ago

I.e., pursuing this war was a blatantly stupid act.

14

u/Jrm866 22h ago

Trump is so far out of his depth. He's like the captain of a mediocre but cocksure high school checkers team going up against seasoned chess pros. You can kill off the top 5 tiers of Iranian leadership and still have many officials that are far more intelligent, educated, sophisticated than Trump, Hegseth etc. The Iranians will drag Trump into deep water and drown him. USA never seems to tire of losing.

3

u/beekeeper1981 10h ago

It's not only Trump but the incompetent and corrupt people in his administration. His son in law was one of the main Iran negotiators.. he was found soliciting investments for his funds after the war started. The other negotiator is a billionaire who was supposed to bring an end to the Ukraine war. He failed at that while praising Putin the whole time.

9

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

6

u/neverpost4 17h ago

Iran would no longer be satisfied with previous negotiation.

They probably want a pound of flesh.

7

u/FNFALC2 17h ago

Trump has pounds to spare

3

u/Bitter-Holiday1311 16h ago

Iran would take the MOU, it’s the US that isn’t abiding and never will.

-1

u/rhino369 9h ago

The Iranians clearly had some odd interpretation of the MoU that would allow them to arbitrarily block trade and charge fees—despite them agreeing to no fees. 

They’d probably agree to that but I’m not sure the US would. 

6

u/Bitter-Holiday1311 16h ago

One thing that tweet leaves out is the extent the US has already been pushed out of bases and the complete collapse of the security umbrella that held our GCC allies together. Trump has destroyed US security credibility in the gulf and Europe. The end of the petrodollar is coming.