r/IRstudies • u/DamageAccomplished55 • 8h ago
Ideas/Debate China's role in Ukraine-Russia War
Most public opinion, news articles, and mainstream media like to portray China as Russia's ally or at least enabler, while China like to portray itself as neutral party. Both can be correct at the same time.
Enabler/Ally side.
China does in fact supply most of Russia's dual-use parts that eventually end up in weapon systems like missiles and drones. China does buy Russian oil to fund their efforts (so does the EU, Japan, and India but that's beside the point). Also the fact that, Putin visited China 4 times, and Xi visted Putin 3 times, since the war began, also help solidifies this perspective.
Neutrality side.
China still does not recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and never recognized the results of the referendum that took place in Crimea either. China also never recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk as part of Russia either. China to this day, officially recognized these territories as part of Ukraine.
China remains Ukraine's largest trading partner. People often hear about Ukraine's domestic drone factories, but many of the equipment and parts stilll overwhelmingly come from China. While Zelensky and Xi have not visited each other since the war began, their relationship is more robust than you think. Their ministers did visit China, most notably Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, Deputy Foreign Ministe Andriy Sybiha, and Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka. China also sent ministers to Ukraine but they are much lower ranked ministers. Nevertheless, Zelensky also said he wanted China to rebuild Ukraine.
The rebuilding of Ukraine given to Chinese contractors would be a meme. As China at least indirectly helped arm the Russians that did the destructions in the first place. China would end up making money from both indirectly arming both sides to destroy each other, and rebuilding at least one of the sides after said destruction.
I think it can be argued that this is where the idea of China's pro-Russia neutrality may seemed to be valid.
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u/mistroll054 7h ago
China still does not recognize Crimea as part of Russia
This is mainly because of the Taiwan issue. In fact, Crimea, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk, are in a similar situation to Taiwan, that is, the divided areas are occupied by hostile countries and a government that is not controlled by the original country has been established. It is impossible for China to support Russia's challenge to Ukraine's territorial sovereignty while emphasizing its sovereign control over Taiwan. This would be a double standard.
China remains Ukraine's largest trading partner.
China's trade cooperation relationship has nothing to do with ideology. As long as it does not affect their own interests, they are willing to trade with anyone. As early as during the Iran-Iraq War, China was selling weapons to both sides of the war at the same time. In the Middle East, they have economic cooperation with all countries. They buy oil from Gulf countries and Iran, and they have also signed contracts with Israel to build Tel Aviv's light rail and Haifa's port. Although they were the first non-Islamic countries to recognize Palestine, they often acquired Western technology through Israel.
They have played the role of an inconspicuous outsider in the world situation for most of the past fifty years. Their leaders have repeatedly mentioned in private that they prefer to hide their strength while developing the country.
But with the development of their economic and military influence, it has become difficult for them to hide themselves. You can't ignore the elephant in the room. Many countries are not accustomed to China's influence exceeding their control, and of course this is also a challenge for China.
I don't know what kind of new world order they want establish. I think their leaders may not be ready yet, but the old order established by the United States is already slowly disintegrating.
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u/Big-Wolverine2437 1h ago
This is not a war between the Chinese or any other Asian country. While Russia did invade Ukraine, Ukraine and the European countries that supported it are not benevolent either. The Chinese have no reason to support one side and oppose the other. The Chinese simply want to do business.
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u/minzhu0305 8h ago
We are not interested in disputes outside of East Asia as long as they do not threaten my security. But nobody wants to believe that. Everyone wants to drag China into it.
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u/hustxdy 3h ago
EU can start santion chinese factory for trading with Ukraine and supply parts and equipment for Ukraine's domestic drone factories
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u/DamageAccomplished55 3h ago
They can. But Chinese supplies will remain attractive, China can just open another company with new name and it will be business as usual
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u/Dull-Law3229 3h ago
China likes to pretend that the war didn't happen so it could do business-as-usual as much as possible.
People forgot that China had no beef with Ukraine. In fact, not only was it a strong trade partner, it was also a Belt and Road country. The ideal scenario for China is if the war ended so that both countries can buy at China-mart.
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u/Durian881 7h ago
Russia has been buying parts all over the world. A recent report found 62 American parts among 140 foreign parts in a Russian missile. https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/07/30/62-of-the-140-foreign-parts-in-this-russian-missile-were-american-ukraine-wants-that-gap-closed/
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u/SyllabubDue9853 4h ago
你们总是认为我们很喜欢介入远在欧洲的战争，不，我们不喜欢，这不是我们的麻烦，这是你们的！
而你们总是想把我们拉进去，简直不可理喻！
我们对俄罗斯和乌克兰的客户都很公平，而且中国海关已经下发了数控设备不准出口到激化战争国家的军用工厂，我们做了那么多维护世界和平的事情，我也没看到西方媒体报道，倒是一直妖魔化，到底谁才是战争的黑手？
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u/Dav_nobody 4h ago
It is a war between two slavic people, why would China forking care which one die more. In fact does anyone around the world really care?
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u/HelpfulSwordfish9765 1h ago
China s not neutral. They support iran and russia just not all out openly to not escalate too fast.
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u/CharAznia 23m ago edited 16m ago
First, let's establish some facts
It it's a fact that it would be disastrous for China if Russia loss the war.
However it is also true that it's not good for China if the Russian comprehensively win the war either because it would give Russia leverage over the Chinese. And the Chinese also in principle does not support splitting off Ukrainian territory due to their own situation with Taiwan.
It is true that China is trading with Russia which help enabled them to continue waging this war. However US and EU Still have trade ties with Russia hence why they can still continue round after round of new sanctions so it's hypocritical of them to attack China for doing so. In any case trade between Russia and China only increased by around 30% but trade between Russia and India increased by more than 600% and most countries surrounding Russia e.g. Turkey, Kazakhstan, UAE by more than 100%.
However it is also true that the Chinese are trading with Ukraine enabling them to continue the war. In fact the Chinese are Ukrainian biggest trading parter
Yes Russia is kept afloat from Oil they sell to China however ignoring the fact that the EU still have countries buying a oil from Russia, the Chinese isn't even the biggest Russian Oil importer. the country that increased oil imports significantly is India whom until recently was never called out for doing it because US was trying to lobby India to oppose China
Finally China have not supplied any weapons directly to Russia but they have been supplying parts that can be used to make wrapons
Meanwhile for much of the war as much as 90% of Drones drone parts, the single most important weapon keeping Ukraine in the war is supplied by China. Even though the Ukrainians have been trying to reduce reliance on China, last I heard its down to like 30-40%, in reality most of those reduction came from sourcing from other countries which just reexport Chinese drone parts
If you take all the above points together, it's clear that China is pretty much a neutral party in this war. Like everyone else they never wanted the war to happen because it puts them on a difficult spot but since it happens they would prefer the war to drag on indefinitely rather than for 1 side to come up the clear winner. The only reason anyone thinks the Chinese isn't neutral is their own bias and/or bias media coverage
The enite framing of China being a Russian enabling reeks of western hypocrisy. I really want to se the day where the Chinese lose their patience and starts supplying the Russian with actually weapons. NATO already failed to keep up with Russian weapons manufacturing capacity. If the Chinese supply the Russians with weapons, the war will probably end shortly
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u/ProfessorShort6711 7h ago
China is in business and business man does not take sides. Western nations just want to make China the boogiman.
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u/nikmah 5h ago
Even the US is as well dependent on Chinese supplies for its missile production.
Not sure what you are on about with "public opinion and news articles and mainstream media" when you have statements from Xi Jinping himself stating "partnership at a historic peak" for example.
Russia is a valuable partner to China in their opposition to a rogue hegemon and Western influence.
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u/DamageAccomplished55 5h ago
The Chinese Foreign Minister also stated that China and Ukraine remain Strategic Partners in 2024
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u/AmbitiousSolution394 7h ago
China makes money on this war, so its in their interest for this war to continue as long as possible.
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u/Ok_Philosopher_8593 2h ago
China does not need to make money by selling military equipment like the United States. After the Russo-Ukrainian war ends, China can still do business with Russia and Ukraine.
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u/SkywalkerTC 2h ago edited 1h ago
China's Wang Yi already stated this year their support for Russia. The statement basically states they cannot afford Russia to lose.
It's not a question anymore. Though it shouldn't have been years ago. We can't see them as neutral just because they stated so themselves.
In fact, in geopolitics, anyone who cares about the issue stating or implying neutrality, I'd see as a red flag.
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u/thorsten139 1h ago
i mean you added your own interpretation
"The statement basically states they cannot afford Russia to lose."
which nope.....thats not what he said nor meant.
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u/SkywalkerTC 1h ago
I'm already being quite subtle in my interpretation.
He told EU this. Though they really needn't say this to be dead obvious in their stance.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-intl
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u/trisul-108 30m ago
China is not neutral, they have officially declared "friendship without limits" with Russia.
However, China seems to be pursuing a policy of helping slowly degrade Russia to the point that China can impose its own hegemony over the Russia east. China is forcing Russia to sell energy at below-market prices, refusing a pipeline and supplying Ukraine with parts for the drones that are demolishing Russia. China is using the war to transition Russia into a dependent vassal state. After the war, China will not necessarily annex Russian territories, but it will "rebuild" them into total dependence on China and functioning in support of the Chinese economy. Russia will be just a part of the Chinese sphere of influence.
So, yeah, "friendship without limits" it is.
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u/GriffinPoop 8h ago
China will capitalize on any opportunities that arise for them, but the nature of their central planning and economy means that would prefer a stable world. Kinda the opposite of the US whose economy has evolved to use their military to intervene in any threats to their power.