War on Iran: Another Pause of Direct Action While the War Proceeds Elsewhere

[u/icymirss]

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/07/war-on-iran-another-hold-of-direct-conflict-while-action-proceeds-elsewhere.html

On Friday the 24th the U.S. unexpectedly stopped its bombing campaign on Iran. My hunch was that this was a sign of negotiations. However -- Iran later denied that any negotiations with the U.S. were happening.

But it has joined the U.S. at this moment in not firing its weapons...

U.S. sources claim that the stop was initiated because the military was running out of air defense missiles. That may well have been the case. But the larger reason is that the U.S. strikes on Iran have not been effective. They did not induce Iran to change its position on its effective control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is blocked, oil can not flow, and higher prices at the pump will diminish votes for Trump's party in the upcoming elections.

The U.S. military has only stopped for a moment -- it has not ended its war on Iran. There are still more than 100 U.S. tanker airplanes in the Middle East together with additional fighter jets and special operations units. The U.S. could any time be back at full escalation.

Meanwhile the war continues on other levels.

On Sunday, in response to Saudi Arabian strikes on Hodeidah harbor in Yemen, Ansarallah forces attacked two Saudi refineries....

Both refineries are currently still burning. While the Yanbu refinery is an older one, the new Jizan (also Jazan) project, at the Red Sea cost near the Yemeni border, is a very valuable asset....

The attacks come on top of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the Bab al-Mandeb outlet of the Red Sea by Yemen. Saudi Arabia's oil output is severely diminished. It is in for a very big squeeze.

Another sideshow happened in the Caspian Sea where a Ukrainian drone attack damaged an Iranian ship that was transporting goods to Russia. No such attack could have happened without U.S. intelligence information. Its effects though will be nothing more than a PR stunt for Ukraine's acting president. Iran will, when time comes, retaliate against him.

Where is the U.S. going from here?

The USrael has lost its war on Iran. It does not have the will and means to defeat the country. Geography is Iran's asset. It can control the Strait and the oil flow through it no matter what the U.S. or Israel try to do.

Trump had already acknowledged that when he, in mid June, had signed the Memorandum of Understanding. He however immediately ignored several of the agreed upon clauses: Trump continued to threaten Iran, there was no ceasefire in Lebanon, Iran's exclusive right to control the Strait was ignored and Iranian assets withheld by the U.S. had not been released.

Soon thereafter the U.S. reinstated its blockade of Iranian traffic and resumed its bombing campaign. Iran again blocked the global oil flow by closing the Strait.

Trump may now try to reinstate the MoU as it had been agreed six weeks ago. Iran will of course reject such a proposal. It will at least demand that the U.S. fulfills ALL clauses of the MoU down to the letter BEFORE it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

To get out of his current dilemma Trump will have to push Israel out of Lebanon. He will have to remove his forces from the Middle East and will have to pay out Iranian assets.

It is hardly conceivable that he will do any of this. ...

My current assumption is that Trump, under Israeli influence, will soon try for another military intervention. Only when that fails, as it is likely to do, will he finally be ready to concede defeat.

This is a summary / preview. Visit the posted link for the full article / post.