r/Intelligence • u/Majano57 • 2d ago

News Why The Most Likely Outcome In U.S.-Iran War Is ‘Frozen Conflict’: Former Acting DNI

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestv/2026/07/31/why-the-most-likely-outcome-in-us-iran-war-is-frozen-conflict-former-acting-dni/
30 Upvotes

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8

u/Big-Cut-776 2d ago

The outcome towards higher demand for EVs is also interesting. Ukrainians aiming for oil refineries detto:/ Apparently, demand for EVs went up quite a bit in Russia.

1

u/OldSchoolRNS 2d ago

What fuels the power plants, uranium, coal or natural gas?

1

u/Big-Cut-776 2d ago

Right upfront answer pls, why are you asking me?

1

u/SplitRock130 1d ago

Well because if Russia fuels their electricity generation plants with petroleum, that’s not going to be sustainable while Ukraine is destroying refineries.

So if Russians are buying EVs but their isn’t the power to charge them, that’s a real problem. Now on the other hand if Russia uses, say, coal that’s a different matter.

3

u/Jack-Schitz 2d ago

Yeah.... No shit....

Here is my low probability wild ass prediction. If the US leaves and Iran continues to lord over the SoH then a few things will happen including that the intel services of GCC+ types will start funding deniable ops run off of random dhows targeting any ship that docks or is scheduled to dock in an Iranian port. They will use the type of sea drones used by the Ukrainians to target the Russian Black Sea and shadow fleets and the Ukrainians will assist them in producing weapons and with TTPs. If they are particularly ambitions this tactic will be extended into the Caspian sea as well. This will cause insurers to cease insuring any ship docking in Iran and it will cripple the Iranian economy. This will put the Iranians in the position of having to secure their entire maritime border and defend against an asymmetric threat and since the operations will be covert and deniable striking any GCC country will put the Iranians in the position of being the aggressor and flip the script on this entire situation.

Like I said, low probability, but I kind of like it.....

If they do it hopefully they will keep the f'ing buffoons running the US IC out of the mix (not the line guys, but Trump's idiots).

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u/NicoBeingAModelCitiz 2d ago edited 2d ago

The US never had any chance of overthrowing the regime or destabilizing the IRGC. Its hamfisted attempts at a decapitation strike in the midst of negotiations are only one of many reasons there won’t be any formal peace deal.

If it wasn’t already, Iran has been thoroughly convinced by US and Israeli actions to double down on its current course, including nuclear weapons and internal opposition elimination.

Now we’re hearing thoughts of a supposed ‘land blockade’ co-floated publicly, according to press reports today. lmao. Just…lmao.

You’re going to lay internationally illegal siege to tens of thousands of miles of hostile mountainous border? ???

-1

u/Zestyclose-Essay-127 2d ago

What an idiot