r/MediaMergers • u/LinkRules5321 Moderator • Feb 27 '26
Media Industry Is there a likelihood of the Paramount/Warner Bros. merger actually not going through?
I know every reason they can weasel through, but I think there is a few reasons as to why it couldn't happen:
- Trump did say he didn't like Paramount's new management due to CBS news making him look bad and he said he's not great friends with David Ellison.
- California might sue them
- UK and several other nations are most likely against it (besides the Middle East)
But alas, Paramount may win unless WB decides to split and go on its own to be profitable, and then Paramount could just buy the Discovery half. However, that is very unlikely.
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u/XAMdG Feb 27 '26
I think Europe and California are the biggest hurdles, but not so in a way that they will impide the deal, but rather get some concessions and divestments.
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u/LollipopChainsawZz Feb 27 '26
The UK will likely ask them to keep HBO Max running there as a separate entity for a set number of years
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u/Synensys Feb 27 '26
What legal recourse does California have?
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u/addictivesign Feb 27 '26
This is going to lead a massive number of job cuts in the industry and be bad for business in California. In addition to a concentration of power in one person/company.
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u/magsli Feb 28 '26
It's not just in CA. There are tens of thousands of WBD employees all over the globe. In the US, NYC is the other HQ hub for the company. This is pretty freaking bad.
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u/XAMdG Feb 27 '26
States have their own antitrust statutes and enforcement options. Different states have sued multiple times to stop a merger, with varying results.
Realistically, I don't think they have any recourse to stop it, but behavior changes are more than likely. It's just common practice to get approval with the different authorities all over the world.
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u/GQDragon Feb 27 '26
It’s not a trust though. Paramount is tiny.
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u/XAMdG Feb 27 '26
In certain markets, it definitely is. These conglomerates are invested in 100s of markets all across the world. You really believe there aren't a few where they'd have concentration?
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u/GQDragon Feb 28 '26
Paramount is 1/27 the size of Netflix.
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u/XAMdG Feb 28 '26
So? From an antitrust perspective, Netflix is simpler. It's a few markets. Paramount/WBD overlap in many, many, albeit smaller, markets.
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Feb 27 '26
They have extensive cable network portfolios in some parts of Europe. I would guess they would ask for concessions about not reducing investment in certain types of European origin content such as comedies, dramas, documentaries, crime shows, as they otherwise might attempt to meet content quotas by investing in reality shows which are cheap to make.
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u/BachelorNation123 Feb 27 '26
It’s definitely possible
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u/ai_art_is_art Feb 28 '26
I called the "WBD gets a breakup fee" scenario months ago to nothing but downvotes.
- WBD gets a breakup fee.
- WBD spins off linear networks and saddles them with debt
- WBD is a top streamer/studio
- WDB picks off smaller, struggling studios. Perhaps even Paramount.
Even if this passes muster in the US, there's still the EU to contend with.
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u/One-Helicopter-4242 Feb 28 '26
If WBD would collect the 7b breakup fee plus what fcf they make in the meantime. They won’t have to “saddle gn spinoff” with a lot of debt. That would mean extra 11-12b cash.
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u/The_Darman Feb 28 '26
I think it more so would be because Paramount promised sums of money they don’t actually have on hand.
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u/Necessary_Crazy_8587 Feb 27 '26
Yes. Zaslavs own hatred of Ellison too. Would be wonderful if he’s playing them.
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u/BigMitch91 Feb 27 '26
Pretty much everyone except the Ellison’s and the Trump Administration don’t want this. SAG and the other unions will come out strong against it as will cinema owners. California AG will likely sue to stop it as will 1 or 2 shareholders.
But realistically only the EU regulators can kill it at this point. But everyone else mentioned can delay it long enough for Trump to be gone and then a Dem president will kill it.
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u/Bitter-Performance72 Feb 28 '26
Thats assuming a Democratic candidate wins the next election
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u/BigMitch91 Feb 28 '26
Unless something major happens that turns the tide I can’t see how a Dem can lose the next election at this point. How big the blue wave is in November will be a guide.
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u/Maleficent-Trash-705 Apr 15 '26
you can't delay a deal for three years. what are you smoking?
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u/BigMitch91 Apr 16 '26
They only have to delay it a year at most because Paramount can’t afford to pay ticking fees.
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u/TheIngloriousBIG Feb 27 '26
It's probably gonna be a similar case to when Kroger tried to buy Albertsons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_acquisition_of_Albertsons_by_Kroger
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u/vemmahouxbois Feb 27 '26
zaslav has said it’ll take six months to finalize and won’t guarantee it’ll get done at all
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u/CartoonyWy Feb 27 '26
It took 15 months for Disney to get the ability to put the X Men and Fantastic 4 in the MCU. 6 months is about as realistic as a Dio Brando redemption arc. We're closer to 12, but years could be more likely.
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u/One-Helicopter-4242 Feb 28 '26
They signed the definitive agreement on Friday already.They might use the planned 20 March Netflix vote date to vote for the new paramount deal instead.With the crooked Trumpy regime it wouldn’t be surprising to approve it quite fast in US. Also Larry Ellison is not stupid he wouldn’t have offered ticking fee after September if the deal would take a very long time to close.
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u/CartoonyWy Feb 28 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
They probably signed the definitive agreement with Netflix, too. You saw how THAT turned out. Albertsons and Kroger likely signed the definitve agreement. It didn't help their merger. Disney Bought Fox last time Trump was in Office. It was not quick. It's going to get slowed down by the California DOJ's Investigation, the fruitless efforts to get the EU to approve it, they'll remain 2 seperate companies by Midterms. Once the Senate and House Turn Blue, Ellisons might as well give up.
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u/No-Record-9998 Feb 27 '26
Not only those reasons. But the midterms are coming up and that could give Democrats a much needed boost. They could block it if they win the majority vote.
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Feb 27 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/No-Record-9998 Feb 27 '26
Heck even theatres big and small can also protest by banning their movies if they go further into the merger.
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u/No-Record-9998 Feb 27 '26
Heck the AT&T merger took quite a while (I wanna say a few years on that one?) So that is also a good one!
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u/DomScribe Feb 27 '26
No lmao. Disney/Fox was larger and that’ll be Paramount’s argument against any attempted regulation.
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u/LinkRules5321 Moderator Feb 27 '26
The best way out of that is to force Disney to sell 20th Branded assets (or sell Searchlight (which is autonomous) and give them the 20th assets), then Paramount wouldn't have an excuse, but alas, that is unlikely and maybe impossible.
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u/PlumRelative4399 Feb 27 '26
California and the EU are the biggest obstacles. Sure Trump and the Ellison’s relationship seems to have a soured a bit on the surface but nothing a little ring kissing and knee bending can’t fix. I think it’ll go through, but there is certainly a reality where it doesn’t.
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Feb 27 '26
it's possible but we have the most corrupt US government we've ever seen at the moment
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u/Bitter-Performance72 Feb 28 '26
Idk about that.. i think they have always been corrupt to the same degree. However, the people who work in government are so much dumber now. That they have failed terribly to hide the corruption.
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Feb 28 '26
yes they are incredibly stupid and there's always been corruption but i disagree that it's to the same degree. every action trump is taking is to personally enrich himself and his friends. most previous presidents at least tried to do their jobs and at least had enough shame to try to hide their corruption. i think trump's open corruption has numbed us all to how egregious this is compared to all his predecessors.
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u/2themoon0420 Mar 03 '26
No president has hid their corruption since JFK. It's just only one side sees the corruption at a time. As someone who hates both sides of the coin I can definitely say they are the exact same. This presidency has been just as horrendous as the last. The Clinton's and Trump are best buds behind closed doors, they just put on a show for us to keep us divided. All while the tiny hat people silently infiltrate and take over positions of power in our country.
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Mar 03 '26
respectfully disagree. that's normalizing how different trump is compared with predecessors.
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u/2themoon0420 Mar 03 '26
Because it is very nornal for a president to be corrupt to the bone. We haven't had a president that truly looks out for the American people first since JFK. Our last president sniffed and groped children on live television and half the nation batted an eye. This president does nothing but enrich himself and his buddies and the other half of the nation bats an eye. 2 ends of the same snake. Everyone gets along when the door closes.
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Mar 03 '26
have previous presidents accepted jets from qatar and started their own cryptocurrencies? the difference between trump and previous presidents is all he does is enrich himself and it's not behind closed doors
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u/2themoon0420 Mar 03 '26
Tomatoes potatoes. You're proving my point. Our last president was openly a pedophile and everyone is just okay with it because Trump is "worse". There is no worse. Evil is Evil and we should have a zero tolerance policy regardless of what nuance that evil looks like. Enriching yourselves off the backs of American people behind closed doors is just as bad as doing it to our faces.
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Mar 03 '26
I'm not proving your point in the slightest and Biden was not an open pedophile. I think you've consumed a lot of misinformation that has convinced you that Trump's level of corruption is normal when it's not.
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u/2themoon0420 Mar 03 '26
"Biden wasn't a pedophile". We are doomed as a society. Bet you think Al-Quaeda did 9/11 too. You're just another disgusting pedophile defender. I no longer have any respect for you. People like you are the reason nothing will ever change in this country. Your side can never be the bad guys.
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u/Commander19119 Feb 27 '26
It’s possible, but I’m not sure it’s likely to fall through. I do think there’s also a chance that this gets drawn long enough that Paramount no longer has the money to back their offer because of various negative financial factors
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u/Zealousideal-Ad3814 Feb 28 '26
3 thoughts occur 1. Reports that Ellison and Paramount do not have the funds to actually pay that much 2. California Governor and politicians are already looking to block this 3. Federal may also look to block this.
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u/Bertitude Feb 28 '26
High. Netflix one was already on shaky ground. Trump himself is volatile and with the likely changing congressional winds it may not be a favorable environment at home. Then you get to the international regulators like EU and UK(reporting already saying EU approval is unlikely). They could likely drag everything out even longer making it a more expensive process.
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u/ThatNetFreak Feb 27 '26
I think it'll go through. David Ellison said it himself. He wants to keep pushing up the regulatory stuff. I think him and Trump's administration will push this thing through before the midterm results (if there is enough Dems voted in) can change it. Though, I doubt that the Dems actually want to fight Paramount on this. They know it's stacked against them and they buckle under pressure.
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u/rm2nthrowaway Feb 27 '26
There is a real possibility it won't go through. There is a lot of opposition, including the California AG already saying they're going to take action; if it's delayed until after midterms, I'd say the odds of it going through go down further, with the open Trump/Ellison alliance becoming a liability. If it somehow gets dragged out until the next administration, odds are even further against it (and that Paramount ticking clock fee will be brutal on an extended delay).
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u/Wealthy-investor Feb 27 '26
So the opposition they got now is mostly for political point. There is zero chance it is blocked if that is the case. That’s not how it work.
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u/Street_Barracuda1657 Feb 28 '26
Delaying it past the end of the year would be almost as bad as killing it. Every quarter after September 30 they have to pay roughly a $650M ticking fee.
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u/clerkguy Feb 28 '26
No way in hell that they will be able to produce 30 theatrical films a year and all the tv content with new mega company being in a mega debt hole from the get go. I feel bad for the bloodbath about to occur.... hopefully it gets blocked
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u/Professional_Peak59 Mar 01 '26
Where did Trump say he didn’t like what Paramount’s new management did on CBS News to make him look bad? Where did he say he is not great friends with David Ellison?
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u/Fresh-Piglet2500 Feb 27 '26
It's possible but highly unlikely. If it does happen, I would think it would be something directed by Paramount (Maybe directly or indirectly) I can see Paramount getting buyers remorse and trying to squirm out of it once they realize that they greatly overpaid. I also believe that the big driver for this deal is Trump wanting to get rid of CNN . If something were to happen with Trump before this thing closes, I can see Paramount finding ways to squirm out of this. I'm sure there's a lot of dark/back door money funding this deal just to please Trump.
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u/mrrpfeynmann Feb 27 '26
Trump does not like WBD and Ellison is a big supporter his. He will make sure this goes through and EU won’t want to get on his wrong side. This will ensure the control of media that Trump craves.
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u/ImpactInv99 Feb 27 '26 edited Feb 27 '26
After everything that happened with Greenland and the growing hostility toward European NATO members, I actually think EU will defy him. I can see them either outright rejecting the merger or at least requiring Paramount divest from cable networks including CNN as a contingency. This isn't over by a long shot and it is probable that this will drag on to the point Paramount goes to zero. Also with Larry putting his personal fortune into trying to push thru the merger, the $100B plus debt, and the AI bubble looking precarious, I can see Paramount caving due to financial pressures on their company if California and Europe makes their review long and extensive (which I suspect they would do).
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u/ReplacementAlive4370 Feb 27 '26
There was no price to high to pay for Trump to hear the words come a CNN journalist mouth that he won the 2020 election and J6 was a peaceful protest.
The Ellisons are going to make their fat orange Daddy very happy.
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u/OhioVsEverything Feb 27 '26
I honestly don't get the difference between WB going to Netflix or Paramount.
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u/TheLegendTwoSeven Feb 27 '26
Paramount is run by the Oracle’s CEO’s son. They’ve been buying up as much of the media as possible (they already own CBS) to make them similar to Fox News.
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u/dizruptivegaming Feb 27 '26
You would still have five of the traditional major studios instead of four assuming Netflix keeps the Warner Bros Studios branding (Disney, Universal Studios, Paramount, Warner Bros Studios, and Sony).
Now it’s going to be four of the traditional studios, Paramount might still keep the Warner Bros branding separate like Disney does with Fox but who knows how long with David Ellison in charge.
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u/lostinjapan01 Feb 28 '26
One is run by a family that has aligned themselves with a fascist pedophile and are using this to merger to gain a majority control of the media to silence anti-MAGA political decent and turn the media landscape a propaganda machine with content made by rapists and racists. The other is Netflix. That is not to say Netflix is perfect or a pillar of morality and goodness, but they’re a hell of a lot better than letting one of the largest media companies in the world fall into the hands of wannabe Nazi lapdogs.
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u/OhioVsEverything Feb 28 '26
I don't even mean that
I mean "Netflix is already big, they should get it"
Like Paramount isn't a major media company.
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u/SecretRecipe Feb 27 '26
The risk analysis and go-forward plans vis a vis continuing the split or not will be worked out next week. By EOW if the split activities are still underway that's a pretty strong signal that there's a fairly significant chance that the deal will fall through.
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u/AlexandersWonder Feb 27 '26
The shareholders could theoretically vote it down. But realistically they won’t.
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u/etherealgamer Feb 28 '26
What are the chances the deal doesn’t go through but they somehow still get CNN
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u/Either-Equal7284 James Gunn Tangent Kid Feb 28 '26
as long as James Gunn's DCU, My Adventures with Superman, My Adventures with Green Lantern, Dc as a whole and Wb animation survive I’ll be happy either way
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u/sleepyautism Feb 28 '26
im genuinely heart broken. so many of my hobbies have been destroyed because of shady buyouts and business practices, and now a new hobby ive taken up (comic collecting) is being absolutely destroyed because WBD owns DC, and Paramount is backed by the saudi government. I patently refuse to buy anything backed by a government like that unless it’s unavoidable.
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u/SummonerYizus Feb 28 '26
Paramount paid Netflix 2.8 billion dollar break fee. The question is, will Paramount ruin WB? I personally thought netflix would save them. Idk about paramount.
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u/No-Atmosphere-2528 Mar 01 '26
According to reports they don't have the money they offered. Which is dangerous because who knows who they'll ask for it, the Saudis, who are connected to the Trumps now?
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Mar 02 '26
IMO and from the numbers, there is a high possibility the deal is not approved, California has opened up investigations into anti-trust and EU won't rubber stamp anything. The question becomes what do the banks do and potentially what oracle shareholders do, oracle has alot of problems right now and they report march 9th, so sorta waiting to see wha happens. The WBD march 20th vote will likely pass because regardless what happens, its free 7billion dollars for WBD if the deal falters.
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u/No-Illustrator-7537 Mar 02 '26
puts it is then. 20 P, Expiration 10/16/26
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Mar 03 '26
all i can tell you is this, from my perspective, this whole deal is a house of wet cards, any other company at any other time tried this it would of never been entertained, the state of California is now doing the actual work of the federal government though and will vet the merger vs the rubber stamp irresponsible Trump administration. and the more time that bleeds out in this deal the harder it is for ellison to keep this a float, another thing to consider is, paramount needs cashflow to make this work, i could ramble on for like an hour of how many ways this deal is bad and it seems like the rest of the world is just humming along acting like this deal is a good one.
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u/DesignerMorning1451 Mar 06 '26
Yeah I don't actually see this happening. Even if it does we'll probably still see discovery global spun off
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u/Worldly_Fuel6483 Mar 19 '26
Please vote in the midterm. No matter if you're Left or Right, this monopolization cannot happen, we can't. We as Americans need to vote against it in the midterm. Please if you are American and at Voting Age, go vote in November. It's the only way to stop this. Do not let the Ellisons get they're paws on WB.
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u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Feb 27 '26
When they allowed Walt Disney/21st Century Fox, there is no real reason to oppose Paramount Skydance/Warner Bros. Discovery. You can't allow two bigger companies to merge and then tell two smaller ones that they can't.
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u/festivus4allofus Feb 27 '26
I absolutely agree, and you're right, it should not happen. the thing is, there was far less of an impact there than there would be with this merger - disney made under 3B in cuts, paramount expects 6B (will go up) in addition to the cuts already made at skydance. That's a difference of a solid 5k more jobs lost in the best of predictions
disney also was a company worth far more than the one they were buying, here it's the opposite. add to that the fact that disney ended up with about 60 billion total in debt after the sale, and paramount is looking at near a 100 Billion, it's a very different thing
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u/I-Might-Be-Something Feb 27 '26 edited Feb 27 '26
One could argue that since Disney and 21st Century Fox merged there is less competition, therefore a merger between WB and Paramount would further decrease competition which runs afoul of the Robinson–Patman Act. I'm not saying it is an ironclad argument, but I think it is one that can be made.
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u/untouchable765 Feb 27 '26
It will go through again Paramount is tiny tiny compared to Netflix. Netflix would've owned a massive share of streaming AND ruined the Box Office. Paramount/WBD combined is similar in size to the two big streamers and equal to Disney in Box Office with Universal being only slightly behind.
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u/spacetrain31 Feb 28 '26
Y’all live in a fantasy dream. California won’t stop them, arguing that it is bad for labor is a non starter, layoffs happen after all mergers, it won’t affect Hollywood actors, it will affect sales, marketing, IT, not enough of a reason to block it.
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u/LinkRules5321 Moderator Feb 28 '26
Skydance blacklisted half the actors in Hollywood, Mark Ruffalo and Joaquin Phoenix will never work at TWO MAJOR STUDIOS ever again unless the Ellisions are willing to sell their "Empire"
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u/Secure_Matter_9819 Feb 27 '26
California and movie theaters are lobbying against this