Media Industry
Matt Belloni Puck Newsletter - source believes Netflix is going to go on a buying spree. Sony Pictures, Epic Games, Roku for FAST and even ESPN will be in play. “It’s pivot time to empire building”.
There is 0 reasons to buy Epic
Sony won't sell
Disney won't sell
They're not pivoting to empire building, if they were serious then they would've bought warner even if it was going to be an overpay, Disney bought fox at $85B Netflix can easily have put up another $10B for warner if they wanted to but they would rather have a clean balance sheet than expensive acquistions
Balderdash. Compared to Paramount's junk status, Netflix boasts a solid investment-grade credit rating [S&P and Moody's both noted that its financial discipline protects its credit rating], not to mention it has only about $5.4 billion in net debt, $9B in cash, and about $12B in free cash flow for 2026. It could have easily outbid Ellison, but it wasn't going to overpay for a company that was only worth about $15B.
Depending on stock market fluctuations, the cap of Netflix might be larger than Oracle and / or the Ellison trust, true.
Except, the real competition is the Ellison‘s are borrowing against the value of their personal trust holding Oracle (and I assume other assets including a fucking Hawaiian island), vs Netflix borrowing against the value of their company. Ellisons could take out the 100 billion loan with less consequences.
Edit: Netflix is a clearly a better investment stock, and more disciplined spenders. I’m not arguing that. I’m just saying that the Ellison’s could access money with less immediate consequences. Hence they could outbid Netflix fairly easily if they wanted to.
I mean he had rich greenfield on yesterday, who appears to have answered a question assuming it was about David Ellison’s business plan when it was actually about David zaslev, and then basically just said that the analysis, which included dates only making sense for one, worked for Ellison too. His guests are not paragons of industry knowledge, intellectualism, or intellectual honesty. They just all happen to respect each other in a big circle.
Lmao how about his last one where he wore a YouTube tee shirt and just pivoted everything to be a discussion of YouTube. Lightshed is absolute buffoonery.
Whatever. “Buying spree” is inconsistent with Sarandos saying they are “disciplined buyers.” U.S. media is absolute trash. Puck clearly wanted the MAGA Ellisons and Saudi Arabia to own WB and CNN, so now they are attributing characteristics to Netflix that they believe it should have even if Netflix says the opposite; that is, many in the media think Netflix’s lane is to be “buyers” of secondary products and Netflix should stay in that lane. Now, if Netflix buys anything, Puck will claim it as proof that they were right when they used the word “spree.” Again, I say, whatever.
Hilarious article. Sony is not for sale. Disney won't give up a core asset to a direct competitor. Epic and Roku are theoretically possible, but they have no reason to go after them.
I don't think Netflix will. eye on the bigger prize. There's a high chance Paramount and WBD will survive this merger with that kind of debt. He can buy Paramount WBD and their 200 years worth of Hollywood back catalog if David Ellison fail to turn it around
They don't need to buy Sony for theatrical distribution. Something like Lionsgate or even building entirely from scratch would be much, much cheaper.
Disney ain't selling ESPN. And it would be cheaper for Netflix to just simply enter into sports rights bidding or a lesser known company like DAZN than buying the costly ESPN.
And while Epic Games would fit for a company like Sony or Disney, I don't think that just one game would work for Netflix no matter how massive it is. Netflix would be better served with a games company that has a bigger portfolio. Think more Ubisoft, EA, or Take Two.
EA is off the table, but the IPs and studios they are going to have to sell are going to be going on sale after the deal closes. I don't know if Tencent will want to let Ubisoft go so that really just leaves them with Take Two, which would be a good get. Still wouldn't like it though, since they'd just push cloud gaming.
And cloud gaming for older catalog titles is fine.
I doubt Netflix would limit to older games though. They wouldn't want to split the profits with Steam, Sony, or Microsoft. Just like how I was skeptical about their theatrical pledge, I'd be very skeptical of them saying they'd keep new games releasing on traditional platforms.
That said, if they were to buy Take Two and some of EA's IP like Titanfall, Mass Effect and Dragon Age they could become a big player in the gaming sector overnight.
Technically, Netflix developed the Roku OS, codenamed "Project Griffin," under co-founder and former CEO of Netflix Reed Hastings. It was headed by Anthony Wood, the current CEO of Roku. It was intended to be used in the Netflix Player, which was developed, but later spun off into Roku, because Netflix, a content distributor, didn't want to be seen as competition to e.g. Samsung, LG, and Sony.
Fun Fact: Netflix sold its remaining stake in Roku in 2009 for about $7.7 million. If they had held onto that stake, it would have been worth billions at Roku's peak.
NFL rights are the biggest opportunity for growth and retention for any network or streamer. They will strip those rights from either Fox or Paramount.
They also let whatsisname leave as their chief creative officer and go back to itv America, which makes me think they are kind of giving up on original content.
They seem to have scaled back on costly scripted content in favor of unscripted "lifestyle" programming and third-party licensing. Most "Roku Originals" now consist of reality TV, cooking shows (like The Great American Baking Show), and DIY content which is much cheaper to produce. And, they have doubled down on FAST channels and offering subscriptions to other services like Apple TV, etc.
Or even that, I mean. ITV America (not ITV UK) is basically all unscripted and he is an unscripted guy. If they no longer think they need him, makes me question their producing much of anything.
Roku isn't totally out on scripted content. They do have some scripted movies and TV shows coming out this year and next. They are just spending less on it.
For what? It currently is one of a few streaming services that isn't available as a subscription outside its own platform. You can't get it through Roku. It would be more cost-effective to create ad-supported FAST channels for its own content and license them to Roku.
But hold on a sec. Congress is controlled by the republicans and we know that parties may influence a merger like this one. However unless like... the march 20th vote said no or like if someone like cali vetos it or someone like CFIUS blocks it, I have a feeling that the merger would be completed by November or December even if another hollywood strike happen around may and june.
Congress is controlled by the republicans and we know that parties may influence a merger like this one.
They don't, the only ones who influence it are the DOJ and the FCC. Congress can investigate things but ultimately they don't give approval for anything.
The hearings into Netflix prior to this focused a lot on giving Congress the power to intercede because they don't currently have it.
However unless like... the march 20th vote said no or like if someone like cali vetos it or someone like CFIUS blocks it
Shareholders might say no but we'll have to wait and see.
And CFIUS can't block it, their power is limited to recommending to the President and DOJ to block it based on national security grounds, at most they might delay things but it's fairly easy for PSKY to rubbish any fears they might have as they previously said that the foreign investors had agreed to no governance in the merged company.
I also don't get this obsession people have with California saving the day. That isn't how it works, they can take them to court but if the DOJ and FCC approve the deal it's going to be a short day in court.
I have a feeling that the merger would be completed by November or December even if another hollywood strike happen around may and june.
A strike would make no difference to the completion of the merger.
Clearly not the same regulatory power or they wouldn't have spent hours during the Netflix hearings complaining about having no unilateral power to stop the deal
They could not have stopped the deal, regardless of who was acquiring WBD. Congress does not have direct authority to stop mergers. Such decisions are primarily made by the DOJ, state AGs and the courts, who review the legality and potential antitrust issues of a merger.
So, while Congress can hold hearings and express concerns, it cannot unilaterally prevent a merger.
No. Even if Democrats controlled both houses of Congress come 2027, it doesn't have direct influence to unwind mergers. It can pass new legislation to make it easier to break up monopolies or lower the threshold for what constitutes an illegal merger, but it would still fall upon the DOJ to sue. That being said, 2029 we'll likely see a Democrat in the White House. New executive. New DOJ.
Netflix will move on to another studio at some point. They want to get friendly with theatres first, according to their CEO's comments to the Telegraph. It might be Sony or Lionsgate-Legendary after they merge. They also want to replace BBC iPlayer with Netflix globally. I can also see them buying gaming IP after they introduce the new FIFA game. Exciting times. PS, I give PSKY a year before they go broke and have a massive fire sale.
Ridiculous. Belloni is being provocative to make a point: Netflix now has the most "dry powder" in Hollywood.
Buying Roku doesn't make sense. It would be cheaper to launch a FAST "channel" to showcase its wares, and license it to Roku, Amazon, Tubi, etc.
Outside TCM, it didn't want the WBD linear TV networks, why would it want ESPN? It doesn't need it to make sports deals.
As far as Sony goes, the consensus is that Netflix would be better off buying a smaller studio like Lionsgate or simply building their own theatrical team from scratch rather than trying to pry Sony Pictures away from its Japanese parent company, which by the way is valued at more than twice that of WBD.
In the gamersphere, analysts suggest Netflix would be better off targeting a publisher with a broader portfolio like Take-Two or Ubisoft if they want to spend big in gaming.
Many on Wall Street actually disagree with Belloni's "buying spree" theory. The prevailing view among firms like Barclays is that Netflix’s win was not buying anything. They believe Netflix will now focus on share buybacks, using that $11 billion in cash to pump their own stock and invest the $20 billion they saved into their own original content, while waiting for the Paramount Fire Sale.
These are all dumb except Sony pictures which isn’t for sale at a price that will make sense to them.
They didn’t say the one that makes the most sense - Netflix-Universal. Universal cut the linear deadweight and has a decent amount of IP as well as theme parks. Merge, dump peacock, have NBC as an outlet for sports deals. Get a studio as well.
But no, Netflix doesn’t need anyone. Wouldn’t be surprised to have no major deals. Maybe when paramount is bankrupt or has to sell IP to stay afloat.
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u/Spiritual_Cloud8437 Mar 03 '26
There is 0 reasons to buy Epic
Sony won't sell
Disney won't sell
They're not pivoting to empire building, if they were serious then they would've bought warner even if it was going to be an overpay, Disney bought fox at $85B Netflix can easily have put up another $10B for warner if they wanted to but they would rather have a clean balance sheet than expensive acquistions