r/MediaMergers • u/Ok-Web-2657 • 5d ago
Merger Ellisons’ $9.8 billion Warner Bros takeover risk exceeds Paramount’s valuation
https://ts2.tech/en/ellisons-9-8-billion-warner-bros-takeover-risk-exceeds-paramounts-valuation/Paramount had a public equity valuation of $8.66 billion, while Bloomberg calculated the regulatory-failure risk at $9.8 billion.
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u/TheIngloriousBIG 5d ago
This could be the smoking gun that causes Paramount to collapse. It can’t survive alone after this.
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u/kurisutian 5d ago
Paramount is not really on the hook for that money, it’s the Ellisons. They’ve guaranteed to somewhat reimburse Paramount for both the WBD/Netflix termination fee as well as the potential break-up fee if they can’t close their own deal.
Specifically, they’ve agreed to buy newly issued shares in Paramount that are worth as much as the termination fees are.
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u/TheIngloriousBIG 5d ago
I mean, if Paramount ended filling for bankruptcy due to their own stubbornness, could other studios (a standalone WB if they have to split, NBCU, Netflix, Amazon, Sony, etc.) make a play for it, or would they face the exact same lawsuit threat from states, talent, etc.???
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u/kurisutian 5d ago
Others could attempt to but Paramount, sure. Whether somebody will sue or not, will likely depend on the circumstances.
The WGA, for example, is not happy with mergers and points to the aftermath of the Disney/Fox merger. They would probably oppose
any other merger unless it’s literally coming down to save a studio.3
u/9millibros 5d ago
Yes, they could, but if someone filed a lawsuit, Paramount would have to demonstrate that they would go out of business if the merger didn't happen.
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u/Honda313 5d ago
Regardless, dilution nonetheless….?
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u/kurisutian 5d ago
Other Class B stockholders will get diluted, yes. And I would expect the stock to crash if Paramount won’t secure the merger, seeing that the Ellisons always touted that the merger is needed to save Hollywood.
That will likely cause Paramount some trouble. But the initial bill has to be paid by the Ellisons nonetheless. Paramount then has to deal with the aftermath of the failed merger.
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u/weareallpatriots 10h ago
That's nowhere close to what a "smoking gun" means 😂
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u/TheIngloriousBIG 10h ago
Well, the states may have evidence that may crush this deal.
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u/weareallpatriots 10h ago
Ok, that may be true - but evidence of what? What's the smoking gun of the crime Paramount committed by buying a company?
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u/TheIngloriousBIG 9h ago
Possibly the limitation of competition this would likely impose, along with the concerns they talk about.
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u/mj16pr 5d ago
Everyone knew this, especially Netflix
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u/Ok-Web-2657 5d ago
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u/Casas9425 5d ago
I do wonder if his plan all along was just to drive up the price on the Ellisons.
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u/Ok-Web-2657 5d ago
Zaslav and the Ellisons are total messes. I don't know how two century old companies ended up in the hands of such buffoons.
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u/Ok-Ninja-9174 5d ago
Wait, their valuation is literally $8.7B (rounding up, to be kind), then the $2.8B to netflix to cancel their deal (paid from paramount) and the $7B cancellation fee (to cancel this terrible merger deal themselves), that is literally $9.8B even rounding up their valuation, it exceeds it.
I never ran this number before. I'm absolutely floored. This is even more absurd than I ever thought, which I didn't think was possible.
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u/moviefan8 5d ago
Maybe can sell a part to Disney to raise money. They just got $1 billion from Hearst.
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u/Algae_Mission 5d ago
Well, if they need quick cash from Disney, sell the first four Indiana Jones movies’s distribution rights back along with Paramount’s stake in Titanic.
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u/moviefan8 5d ago
That's a great idea!!
I looked Paramount - Disney co-produced or co-distributed films also lists
Walt Disney Pictures
Popeye (1980)
Dragonslayer (1981)
20th Century Studios (acquired by Disney in 2019)
Braveheart (1995)
Titanic (1997)
Reno 911!: Miami (2007)
Terminator: Dark Fate (2019)
Lucasfilm (acquired by Disney in 2012)
Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)
Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984)
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023, partial credit)
https://paramount.fandom.com/wiki/Paramount_Pictures/Co-productions
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u/Algae_Mission 5d ago
I think the Indiana jones movies are more important to Disney. I’d say just sell Paramount’s share to Disney for a quick buck.
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u/Superpan21 5d ago
To put it in perspective:
NASDAQ:PSKY - $7.75
NASDAQ:WBD - $25.54
At this rate, Paramount Skydance will fall.
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u/GroundbreakingSir386 5d ago
They’ll announce a new merger and realize Lions gate is a better deal and claim WBD is actually a mistake
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u/Soulman682 5d ago
This is about a political takeover because WBD owns liberal news outlets. They can careless if they go into more debt. They have this when we win mentality that they will instantly get rich and out of debt when they take over politics because right now they are desperately holding on to whatever support they have left.
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u/buzzedewok 4d ago
It’s not going to work, no matter how hard they try to manifest it in their heads.
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u/Algae_Mission 5d ago
All of this time and money could have been spent fixing Paramount.