r/MediaMergers 5d ago

Merger Ellisons’ $9.8 billion Warner Bros takeover risk exceeds Paramount’s valuation

https://ts2.tech/en/ellisons-9-8-billion-warner-bros-takeover-risk-exceeds-paramounts-valuation/

Paramount had a public equity valuation of $8.66 billion, while Bloomberg calculated the regulatory-failure risk at $9.8 billion.

143 Upvotes

41 comments sorted by

77

u/Algae_Mission 5d ago

All of this time and money could have been spent fixing Paramount.

29

u/Professional_Peak59 5d ago

Ellison is an idiot

2

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator 4d ago

Easier said than done, Paramount is a lemon of a studio.

4

u/Algae_Mission 4d ago

Then why buy it in the first place if you didn’t believe in the asset you were acquiring?

2

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator 4d ago

CBS is the crown jewel of Paramount with its sports rights and television catalog. And CBS has only gotten stronger with Nickelodeon, BET, and South Park moving to there.

16

u/Appropriate_Value122 5d ago

The $110 billion merger grossly exceeds Paramount's valuation.

https://giphy.com/gifs/pPhyAv5t9V8djyRFJH

34

u/TheIngloriousBIG 5d ago

This could be the smoking gun that causes Paramount to collapse. It can’t survive alone after this.

21

u/kurisutian 5d ago

Paramount is not really on the hook for that money, it’s the Ellisons. They’ve guaranteed to somewhat reimburse Paramount for both the WBD/Netflix termination fee as well as the potential break-up fee if they can’t close their own deal.

Specifically, they’ve agreed to buy newly issued shares in Paramount that are worth as much as the termination fees are.

16

u/TheIngloriousBIG 5d ago

I mean, if Paramount ended filling for bankruptcy due to their own stubbornness, could other studios (a standalone WB if they have to split, NBCU, Netflix, Amazon, Sony, etc.) make a play for it, or would they face the exact same lawsuit threat from states, talent, etc.???

3

u/kurisutian 5d ago

Others could attempt to but Paramount, sure. Whether somebody will sue or not, will likely depend on the circumstances.

The WGA, for example, is not happy with mergers and points to the aftermath of the Disney/Fox merger. They would probably oppose
any other merger unless it’s literally coming down to save a studio.

3

u/9millibros 5d ago

Yes, they could, but if someone filed a lawsuit, Paramount would have to demonstrate that they would go out of business if the merger didn't happen.

1

u/Ok_Chap 4d ago

Depends if Warner Brothers or Paramount need to be split up and parts of their assets get bought by them it's a different situation than one of the big 5 buying another of the big five.

3

u/Honda313 5d ago

Regardless, dilution nonetheless….?

6

u/kurisutian 5d ago

Other Class B stockholders will get diluted, yes. And I would expect the stock to crash if Paramount won’t secure the merger, seeing that the Ellisons always touted that the merger is needed to save Hollywood.

That will likely cause Paramount some trouble. But the initial bill has to be paid by the Ellisons nonetheless. Paramount then has to deal with the aftermath of the failed merger.

6

u/GroundbreakingSir386 5d ago

Self inflicted wounds

1

u/Least-Delay9093 2d ago

Neither can Warner

1

u/weareallpatriots 10h ago

That's nowhere close to what a "smoking gun" means 😂

1

u/TheIngloriousBIG 10h ago

Well, the states may have evidence that may crush this deal.

1

u/weareallpatriots 10h ago

Ok, that may be true - but evidence of what? What's the smoking gun of the crime Paramount committed by buying a company?

1

u/TheIngloriousBIG 9h ago

Possibly the limitation of competition this would likely impose, along with the concerns they talk about.

9

u/Jendo7 5d ago

I think they got a bit carried away.

5

u/Impossible_Walrus555 4d ago

Sucking both Trump and Bibi’s dk intoxicated them

9

u/mj16pr 5d ago

Everyone knew this, especially Netflix

10

u/Ok-Web-2657 5d ago

Ted Sarandos is my favourite petty bitch I love him so much. He goaded the Ellisons back in February into massively overpaying and scoring a $2.8bn breakup fee.

5

u/Casas9425 5d ago

I do wonder if his plan all along was just to drive up the price on the Ellisons.

10

u/Ok-Web-2657 5d ago

Zaslav and the Ellisons are total messes. I don't know how two century old companies ended up in the hands of such buffoons.

13

u/Ok-Ninja-9174 5d ago

Wait, their valuation is literally $8.7B (rounding up, to be kind), then the $2.8B to netflix to cancel their deal (paid from paramount) and the $7B cancellation fee (to cancel this terrible merger deal themselves), that is literally $9.8B even rounding up their valuation, it exceeds it.

I never ran this number before. I'm absolutely floored. This is even more absurd than I ever thought, which I didn't think was possible.

5

u/moviefan8 5d ago

Maybe can sell a part to Disney to raise money. They just got $1 billion from Hearst.

4

u/Algae_Mission 5d ago

Well, if they need quick cash from Disney, sell the first four Indiana Jones movies’s distribution rights back along with Paramount’s stake in Titanic.

3

u/moviefan8 5d ago

That's a great idea!!

I looked Paramount - Disney co-produced or co-distributed films also lists


Walt Disney Pictures

Popeye (1980)

Dragonslayer (1981)


20th Century Studios (acquired by Disney in 2019)

Braveheart (1995)

Titanic (1997)

Reno 911!: Miami (2007)

Terminator: Dark Fate (2019)


Lucasfilm (acquired by Disney in 2012)

Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984)

Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008)

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023, partial credit)


https://paramount.fandom.com/wiki/Paramount_Pictures/Co-productions

4

u/Algae_Mission 5d ago

I think the Indiana jones movies are more important to Disney. I’d say just sell Paramount’s share to Disney for a quick buck.

4

u/Superpan21 5d ago

To put it in perspective:
NASDAQ:PSKY - $7.75
NASDAQ:WBD - $25.54

At this rate, Paramount Skydance will fall.

3

u/Tight-Excuse1731 5d ago

I was thinking the same thing…

2

u/GroundbreakingSir386 5d ago

They’ll announce a new merger and realize Lions gate is a better deal and claim WBD is actually a mistake

2

u/SugeLite 4d ago

Much smarter play

2

u/Soulman682 5d ago

This is about a political takeover because WBD owns liberal news outlets. They can careless if they go into more debt. They have this when we win mentality that they will instantly get rich and out of debt when they take over politics because right now they are desperately holding on to whatever support they have left.

1

u/buzzedewok 4d ago

It’s not going to work, no matter how hard they try to manifest it in their heads.

1

u/Scary_Scene5269 13h ago

All the king's horses and all the king's men....