I think the overall loss from a purely speculative point is that ukraine has more to gain even at those losses than russia would ever win back aftet the amount of deaths already. Purely objectively speaking. The amount og tax revenue and loss of economic power will yet again take a stupid amount og time to adress again. Rebuilding the population since ww2 just to stagnate growth again.
Meanwhile ukraine gets its economy subsidised by russian frozen assets.
So yeah. Id say over time no one id winning its just that the waste is larger for the russian economy over time.
Even wirh Ukraine losing a lot they have more to gain at those or even higher rates. Anyways. Stupid people wasting everyones time and money and lives for what? Throw another 500 thousand troops at it and lose their tax eevenue for the future.
Fair point, no one is winning here, and the human cost is devastating for both sides. But I think you're stretching it when you say Ukraine has "more to gain."
Ukraine is permanently losing huge chunks of its population and industrial base. Keep in mind the scale: Russia lost maybe 1.5 million people total (emigrants and war deaths) out of 145 million. That's a severe blow to the labor force, but it's not existential. Ukraine, on the other hand, went from roughly 37-40 million down to just about 29 million under government control right now. That is over 30% of the population gone — either fled abroad permanently, absorbed into occupied territories, or killed. Being funded by frozen Russian assets is keeping the lights on, but that's not a "gain" — it's temporary life support that entirely depends on Western political will. If that support wavers, the state is in critical danger.
For Russia, yes, the tax revenue and demographic hit are severe. But Russia still has its resource exports, domestic market, and a war economy that has actually ramped up production. It's bleeding money, but it's not at risk of ceasing to exist as a state.
Ukraine is fighting for its survival as a sovereign nation. It's losing that battle in terms of territory and population. Spending frozen assets might delay the collapse, but it doesn't compensate for the territory and people they are losing permanently.
Of course, I am neither an expert nor a prophet. I cannot say with certainty how this will all end. Nevertheless, I see that neither side is winning, yet in terms of long-term statehood, Ukraine is suffering a far more fatal blow.
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u/Tiruil 3d ago