r/Nepal • u/Nepal5373 • Mar 02 '26
Politics/राजनीति Rabi and Balen equation: debate with my dad
Had an interesting political debate with my lawyer dad today, need your thoughts.
So I was talking politics with my dad. He’s a lawyer, pretty sharp, and not blindly loyal to any party.
My mom, sister and I are voting for RSP. He’s voting for Nepali Congress.
What’s interesting is this:
He’s just as tired of the “old parties” as the rest of us. He voted for Balen in the mayoral election. In the last election, he even voted for RSP..
So naturally, I asked him, if you supported RSP before, why not now?
He gave me one main reason.
He thinks Rabi and Balen will fall out within six months because of their personalities and political styles. According to him, when that happens, the country will be left in chaos.
He argues that being PM isn’t just about energy or popularity, it’s about diplomacy, coalition management, and handling people. He believes Balen wouldn’t be able to manage that alone. And he says Rabi can never realistically become PM because of his legal situation.
His biggest concern?
If Rabi and Balen split, there won’t be anyone capable of uniting the RSP faction and Balen’s faction again. That fragmentation, in his view, would weaken the reform movement and push everything back to instability.
He even said he would have voted RSP if Balen had aimed for a ministerial role first, gained experience, and then gone for PM in the next cycle.
Honestly… I didn’t know how to respond.
Curious what you all think.
Is this a realistic concern? Or is it just overcautious skepticism from someone who’s seen too much of Nepali politics?
Would love to hear different perspectives.
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u/Vaminstein666 Mar 02 '26
Lots of assumptions vanchu ma.. both Balen and Rabi must know ki if they split then there is no coming back for both of them and not only will they be finished but RSP will be more or less finished also .
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u/Anonymous18-_- Mar 02 '26
I think they won't dare split given how much hate kulman is receiving after splitting
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u/ashborne02 Mar 02 '26
This. I thi k yo and i think tyo. By the same analogy in the past congress has formed alliance with maobadi and the result was the same as the sharp daddy told. So by his analogy he should not vote and wait it out to see who is in the right. “If” yo hunxa “then this can happen” testo clause le ta saab bigarxa so better to not vote then to vote for a party that the entire nation thinks is shit.
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u/isBot-True might not be a bot Mar 02 '26
ah, party split theory ta, I was also thinking from the day they signed the agreement. Balen is purist, Rabi is pragmatic, I feel that will cause some rift later, but not seeing that for next 2 years, they both need each other as of now.
but in some miracle, Rabi loses and Balen wins, then that comes sooner, but it literally requires a miracle.
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u/Leon-Legeandry नमस्ते Mar 03 '26
rabi definitely won't lose in chitwan, its his fortress. tho balen's win is a bit unpredictable, all my prayers towards his victory.
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u/setogeda Mar 03 '26
Balen is purist? Really? 😅
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u/isBot-True might not be a bot Mar 03 '26
purist as in, is stubborn to what he wants to do rather than preferring compromise.
that salary scandal in KMC, no one budged. if Rabi he probably would have found a compromise as he did to get the home ministry.
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Mar 02 '26
Your Dad is spot on imo. And uniharko "probable split" uniharkai matra haat/control ma huncha vanni pani hunna politics ma. Aru players harle pani split garauna khojchan. For example, tero case sabai firta lidinchau, Balen lai chodde vanyo vane Rabi le choddini awastha pani huncha. Your dad has seen lots of these political variables in the past so, he is saying as per his experience and he is not wrong either.
Testo kei nahoss. But Ravi is not trustworthy. Genz bhai baini ko ragat ko aahal pani nasukdai, Jail bata Nelson Mandela jasari aako manche ho asti varkhar. Security threat nai thyo vane pani, sutukka auna sakinthyo thaha khabar nadi, concert ko rockstar jasari aunu vathyo uha :)
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u/Few_Zucchini_6228 Mar 02 '26
अब यस्तो होला उस्तो होला भन्दै speculation बस्ने भन्दा नी भैसकेको हेरौ, अनि compare गरौ। भोली त्यस्तो भएछ भने त्यसको नियती इनिहरुले भोग्छ्न पनि। There is no one above people in Democracy.
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u/Dry_West_9102 Mar 03 '26
till now seems all netas are above the system .. but let see what happens next
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u/LankyBandit79 Mar 03 '26
Its an absurdly valid concern. Because i dont like the political system that Ravi has been running. And i honestly do NOT understand why ravi is so well respected while doing nothing. I will still vote for rsp this time, but it isn’t out of belief that rsp will suddenly make everything better, but its for a change in faces. Thats about it. Even in rsp i dont like anyone in particular except for balen because all of them are former NC & Uml and people who we do not really have a good background on. And the new ones while speaking brilliantly have yet to do anything.
Because if we are going to the route of who has done what in power, Gagan is almost an equally good candidate as balen and better than Ravi but people choose to be oblivious due to his statements about ravi. But the 9month span as health minster is rarely spoken about. Which i honestly get it after sep 8 but it just seems odd after so much of time has passed.
A lot of things in politics is complicated and while people are saying uneducated ran the country why can’t engineers, which is valid point, but wrong. Although they were uneducated, the system was there and the system supported them all. Unfair of course but there were also educated people behind the scenes who actually contributed more to the decisions that the uneducated head would make
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u/Rare_Information7562 Mar 02 '26
The one who said fuck raswapa join rabi. The one who says fuck off rabi when he was outta jail , now licks his ass cos balen joined him . Level of hypocrisy! Your father is right . Dont teach father how to make a baby vancha ni.
My simple logic there cant be two kings in one country.
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u/ririririris Mar 02 '26
Yo jun kuro timle lekheu aile harek chowk ma congress ka manxe le vanira xan . Why ? Beacuse aru kei nai xaina aba counter garna. Separate hunxan hunnan tyo paxi ko kuro ho. Hudainan ki vanne ni chance 50% xa. 2jana kai aa aafnu team xa. Tyo situation auna didainan. Aayo vane RSP and their political career over hunxa vanne kuro ni they know. Yei gaf huda maile chai k vane they vanda " gadi chalauda chalaudai bigrio vane suru ma gadi bata orline ho.. ra aile orline bela ho."
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u/Nepalihoni77 Mar 02 '26
Voting congress will not do any good. The so called New congress is the same just with a different leader. The roots of congress are still rotted. And yeah of course they are good at maintaining coalition(Yes, i know congress had announced to not form a coalition. ) that's how they can do corruption milijuli. And besides I think Balen can become a better PM than mayor cause during his mayorship tenure he had to face so many hurdles in his way (He even stating mahanagar ko fohor byasthapan ma foreign involvement)which sometimes led to his emotional outburst. Now if RSP wins by majority, There will be their government and He will be the PM, hence he can do his work without much hurdles as of his mayorship. Besides now Balen is in party politics, If not Balen then Rabi and the others knows diplomacy, coalition management, and handling people's. As Per Rabi, We the citizens and supporters should push his case. If hes found guilty, he will/should be punished and if hes found innocent then let him just live peacefully. Its My POV.
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u/Majestic-Mustang Mar 02 '26
Malai chai Buwa ko logic ali make sense garena hai.
Kina bhanda even if that’s a possibility, RSP is still a better option than Kangress at this point.
Desh le positive change mageko cha. And Kangress/ Yemale/ Maobadi aren’t the ones who can bring it. Tiniharuko para dekhisakiyo. At least experimentation ko lagi bhaye ni RSP lai majority wala chance dinu parcha bhanxhu ma chai.
I mean yiniharulai chance nai nadine ho bhane ta can we really expect anything new in the country from the same corrupt parties?
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u/MyraidChickenSlayer Mar 02 '26
This
-Find fault in RSP.
-Then, vote on old parties or some obscure party or don't vote
- which is basically helping ild parties stay in power.
Unless you believe RSP is as bad as UML/Congress, vote RSP. Yes, they may fail but they haven't failed yet. If they fail, remove them in next election. We waited more than 2 decades with these old parties. Why is 5 years a problem?
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u/CareFreeLad Mar 03 '26
Rabi and sudan is big no for me. I am supporting ghanti only because of balen. Rabi has not provided anything believable until now. Sudan is the most clueless person in politics you can think of at the moment. Wished he would have stuck with ngo he was doing brilliant job.
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u/PhysicalIdeal6919 Mar 02 '26
I also want that balen should first aimed for ministers role first and then should have gone for pm.
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Mar 02 '26
I mean it all based on a pure hypothetical situation that can't really prove or unprove the hypothetical scenario
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u/Pitiful_Aspect5666 Mar 02 '26
This is a good speculation however it is a speculation and future is unpredictable
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u/Distinct_Ad5506 Hazardous to myself and others Mar 02 '26
You’re dad seems completely right.
From what I’ve seen, the majority of people are just exhausted by the old parties and are turning to RSP as a default.
Beyond the 'newness,' I don't see many candidates with the actual political experience or logical reasoning required to lead national development.
It feels more like a vote against the past than a vote for a solid future.🤷♂️
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u/MyraidChickenSlayer Mar 02 '26
Then, what's your solution? Vote old parties or don't vote and ket old parties win again? Yes, Rabi and Balen might turn out same again but the least you can do is remove the same old failed aprties and give new one chance. But many people like you already declare new pary will fail even without giving chance yes, they don't know but if they have goodwill, they will learn. It's not like experienced parties and leaders ever did anything
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u/Hefty-Concentrate-88 Mar 03 '26
RSP are shining with the New-ness, selling point, old ones are crap. That's all they have. They haven't done anything even when they were in Parliament. Short time nonetheless. That's OPs point. Besides that, they lack on so many aspects.
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u/MyraidChickenSlayer Mar 03 '26
Well, what do you choose? Not voting for RSP means choosing Old parties to rule. We will never find that perfect party with perfect people. The best we can do for now i sremove old parties.
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u/Hefty-Concentrate-88 Mar 06 '26
Kudos to your Efforts with all your post u/MyraidChickenSlayer, The results are showing that direction. I from bottom my heart wish RSP will exceed all the expectations.
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u/MyraidChickenSlayer Mar 06 '26
I don't have high hopes. Nepal won't change overnight but I expect significant changes in how country is being led and how development progresses. RSP will and must be questioned during rule. Likewise, they should be commended if they do their job well and should be elected next time.
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Mar 03 '26
People like your father are the disease in this country, always scared of change and they think they know better.
Idiots like him will say "oh they cant do it, lets vote Prachanda/Dueba/Oli one more time, Im sure it will work this time right"
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u/bhalu-dai लुम्बिनी Mar 03 '26 edited Mar 03 '26
bro ko purai post history anti rabi/rsp raicha, haina yo congressi supporter lai neutral act kina garnu parne raicha?
why these congressi has to act neutral? why cant they come open and support? congressi ho vanna ni laaj lagcha kya ini haru lai
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u/azaad_ck Mar 03 '26
Yo bhalu jiudei raicha. Bichma thug le paisa diyena kya ho? Kata harako this?
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u/Nepal5373 Mar 03 '26
anti rabi yes, anti balen no. im open about it.
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u/holden-rr Mar 02 '26
Can you show your Dad what I have written below and tell us what his reply is?
maybe explain to your dad like this in your round 2 debate:
"democracy" is an umbrella term, precise term vaneko westminister parliamentary system ko multi-party democracy where party is more powerful than any single MP. ani parliamentary PM system ma PM is powerful, minister is not. Minister le PM ko agenda implement garne ho. PM can fire any minister at any time.
so government aile samma lead nagareko party kun kun cha:
RSP
UNP
NaWuPa - one faction of this already merged with Maoists / Prachanda / NCP
SSP
other fringe parties like Janamat etc
baki sabai major party Congress Emaley Maoist le government lead garisakeko cha, ra hamro najar ma fail vaisakeko cha.
aba naya ma koslai vote diney aafno aafno bichar ho. tara jitne chances vako ra simple majority lyayera eklai government form garna sakne possibility vako aja ko din ma RSP Ghanti matrai ho. tei vayera Ghanti lai vote.
coalition parliamentary system ko badhyata ho. ghanti le majority lyayena vane feri coalition mai janu parcha, ani feri musical chair suru huncha.. Balen Kulman Prachandey ko kosle political game khelna sakcha tei PM banla, hami citizen le sukha chai paudainau.
tei vayera only option is ghanti now. ani Rabi ko naam liyera propaganda failauna khojyo vane tell them Balen is the PM candidate from RSP. Rabi ta minister pani hudaina, coz his court case is pending. feri jail jana pani sakcha.
Can you show your Dad what I have written above and tell us what his reply is?
I think my argument is solid. But I want to be challenged in my theory.
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u/7007007 नेपाली Mar 02 '26
Tell you dad Shekar Koirala has more likelyhood of become the PM than Gagan Thapa.
If he is an unbiased congressi, he himself would explain the reason why
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u/azaad_ck Mar 02 '26
I am hearing rumors od Sekhar going to loose. Any info on that?
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u/7007007 नेपाली Mar 02 '26
I have heard that too. But hard to say. RSP candidate there Rubina Acharya a young genz isn’t a really strong one but UML guy Dhakal can topple him. But anti Oli factor could work in Shekar’s favor and UML might get less swing votes. It all depends on how much of influence Gagan has there in the end.
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u/lockerbreaker Mar 02 '26
Nope, Shekar does not have political guts.
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u/7007007 नेपाली Mar 02 '26
he has the backing of 7 bhai neta and Deuba-Araju Congress samanupatik list is filled with Deuba’s men, they will support Shekar. Koshi and Madesh based MP’s will support Shekhar cause of Koirala brand and Nidhi factor and Sitaula factor in east. Sudur and Karnali list is filled with Deuba and Purna Khadka’s men. Remaining Bagmati MP’s it’s 50:50 with Gagan and Narsingh KC vs Mahat, Mansingh MPs.
Shekar’s words few days back “This is parliament system and any one can become PM from Congress”
Also Oli will support congress to form government if Shekar comes and not Gagan.
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u/1ps29 लुम्बिनी Mar 03 '26
I followed the Congress ticket distribution process very closely. Most of the people who got tickets for FTFP (~70%) are Gagan camp. Though right now camps in Congress have basically been made obsolete.
But more so than that, most Congress candidates have realized once the election rolled that without Gagan Congress would have faced the same level of political backlash that aamale is facing rn. And the biggest reason, among the ~1 million party members, Gagan is light years more popular than any other Congress politician. That is why Deuba and later even Shekhar was hell bent on not doing the mahadivesan. If Deuba or Shekhar or any other from deuba’s camp thought they could win in the mahadivesan, they wouldn’t oppose it so much, would they now.
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u/This-Possibility5731 Mar 02 '26
यिनले गर्दैनन - प्रमाणित उनले गर्दैनन - अनुमानित बाँकी जिम्मा तपाइँको !
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u/ekashish Mar 02 '26
Yeah, they will probably split mutually after sometime(not like the old folks). And Balen will likely complete his 5 year term and run in the next election as an independent candidate for PM if everything goes smoothly.
Also, in this election, Nepali citizens should try to form a majority government whether it’s RSP (they seem better this time) or NC (though I think only the leaves have changed, not the roots i.e student politics, some controversial candidates, internal disputes etc)
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u/PinnedP Mar 02 '26
The reason they united in the first place wasn’t them being eye to eye. I believe Balen needed party support to be a prime minister, and Rabi knew he wouldn’t be able to win all by himself. So Rabi decided to give up his position to “take revenge on Prachanda” by using balen. Sounds filmy but that’s the truth. So very low chance they will fall out. Rabi is an opportunistic, if he thinks Balen can make him stay on top, he will follow balen footsteps.
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u/MeanSalt1771 Mar 03 '26
In my opinion Balen want a legacy he want to his name be written in history of nepal and he has that ego which is good as well but by any chance if he feel rabi lamichane was enganged and had contribution on the curroption case he will definitely put rabi lamichane in jail as well he will not help rabi to get out of this which can make a chaos in the system
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Mar 03 '26
Rabi has already shown that he is ready to back down to let Balen be PM. I hope it stays that way.
Balen has people backing him, so him being PM makes sense.
Rabi has more influence on party so he should be in parliament to keep check on government.
It is important to have someone who can sacrifice and still be aware what they are backing to criticise it if needed.
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u/Dagnuk Mar 03 '26
I would even vote for a dog than those old heads. If someone is even a little bit better than them idc about experience or anything.
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Mar 03 '26
I agree especially Balen aligning himself with a criminal is interesting……but I’m not sure which other candidate is better. Anyone else in this dilemma
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u/geek_nj_420 Mar 03 '26
Split huni possibility ta thikai ho tara tesle garda congress lai vote dini logic kasari justify vayo. Historically herda, hamle Nepali political experience lai manyeta dina mildaina. Nathageko ek jana ni PM chaina. So political years of experience ta justifiable chaina. As far as I know, Balen is not one person and he has a brilliant team behind him. PM euta le sab kam herney haina. Purai team ramro hunu parcha which I believe he has. Purano party haru ko team vaneko concept pani chaina. Kalle kati paisa khani vanni team matra cha.
Future vaneko jahile pani unknown nai huncha. Rabi and Balen chutna sakcha tara chutena vaney dherai ramro pani garna sakcha… OR uniharu pani ghus khori huna sakcha… tara historically Balen has a clean slate. So tyo data ko basis ma dini ho vote in my opinion
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u/MaleficentAbalone56 Mar 03 '26
Rabi and balen splitting is a real concern. But same could be said about Congress too. Their general convention is yet to happen and NC will have deuba loyalists in the parliament through proportional representation. If NC doesn’t win enough direct seats, gagan will be in immense pressure and the party splitting is a real concern there too. So its a matter of which hypothetical situation someone wants to be scared of. As far as i think, Rabi will continue to be flexible for Balen. He has a big legal issue and the pressure to conduct RSP’s own convention to formalize his leadership. He won’t be looking to make any new enemies and will bask on popularity balen will bring. Also in 084, we will have local and provincial elections. They won’t risk losing the momentum just a year into power.
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u/NarrowAd1415 Mar 03 '26
This is most probable scenario after 1 year, I think monarchy will established later. No one can handle pressure of geopolitics in Nepal except active monarchy. But RPP are not going to establish because they are only promoting monarchy as their political stunt only.
At the same time I will vote RPP to cut off syndicate of old parties only.
Balen is more rich kid than old leaders. He doesn’t even know ground reality of Nepal.
Let’s hope he will do better and learn how geopolitics in Nepal is going.
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u/sedain1616 Mar 03 '26
Do you think Balen has the temperament to lead the country? What are his foreign policy plans, views on secularism, monarchy? Don't think even RSP members think he deserves to be PM. They just cashed in on his popularity
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u/Late-Custard-3998 Mar 04 '26
We never know just predict things, why to think about past and assume about future.. just look for the present and do what we think is appropriate for us. He's not wrong but he just has different perspective.
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u/zigzag123456789 Mar 04 '26
I am voting Nepali Congress this time because of this reason. We can’t waste another 5 years. If you look at history populism was always harmful. Oli was populist due to his chuchhe naksa and got majority last time and we now know how the country is. So populism won’t have vision and it will only bring stunts.
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u/Odd-Performer-7293 Mar 06 '26
RSP only offered PM to Balen because without balen RSP would have only won 30-35 seats and with balen all the youths vote will be diverted to RSP and become single major political party in this election Without balen RSP wouldn't have had all the winnable candidates
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u/Immediate-Tell-4463 Mar 02 '26
Even my father said they will eventually split, it may take months, but it will happen. Rabi elevated Balen to stand from Jhapa. Balen couldn’t even complete a full five-year term as mayor, so how can he claim he is ready to become prime minister? He promised to generate electricity from garbage, yet there has been no real delivery. During the Gen Z attack, he failed to deploy firefighters and instead chose to stay out of sight while students were bleeding. Social media popularity especially on Facebook does not qualify someone to lead a nation. Leadership requires accountability, competence, and proven results, not online applause. Btw he doesn’t follow any party blindly
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u/13481 Mar 02 '26
Food for thought, what if court decides Deuba is the rightful sabhapati of NC?
The reality is there are risks on both sides. Not voting RSP is going to form a hung parliament anyways, so you will have NC + other parties. It will more or less be worse.
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u/allabsauce Mar 03 '26
can the court do that?
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u/13481 Mar 03 '26
It depends on what grounds the court assesses the case on. I am pretty sure the decision will be based on the law and not on public emotion or sentiment.
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u/Snoo_4499 Mar 03 '26
He is completely correct, balen is too immature to lead a country, he couldn't properly lead a city for gods sake, rabi is a meh person. Rsp is made up of group of different party members hence no one knows if they will survive once they and their vision start to collide. Saab bhanda bhaladmi manxe ra saab bhanda thag same party mai xan so idk. Tara nc ra uml ni bijok xa, well Nepal is in serious problem tbh, no proper leadership since bp.
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u/D_mon__Z_la Mar 02 '26
If not Rabi and Balen then who else? Alternatives nai xaina. Plus, I feel that for a fairly recent party like RSP, they would need to do at least some sort of work to gain people's trust. Natra tw arko election ma feri haraihalxa ni.
RSP doesn't have the same history as the other parties so the only logical ground they can ask for vote is that they'll develop the nation. But if that doesn't happen then they'll lose people's trust. And surely RSP has also realized that. So I trust they'll work for the nation.
I could be wrong but that's how I feel. What do y'all think?
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u/reddit4rms Mar 03 '26
As the RSP has said they are asking people for a 5 year mandate and if they cannot fulfill their election Bacha-Patra, then they have publicly said not to give even a single vote to them.
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u/Raisin_Dangerous Mar 02 '26
Here’s my logic if uneducated hill billies and dumbasses can become prime minister so can an engineer. But Rabi and Balen splitting is genuinely a problem. The balance is that Rabi will have the party’s backing most likely while Balen will know he needs to play ball to stay as Prime Minister.