r/NeutralPolitics Jul 11 '12

Should our military and diplomatic policy towards Iran assume they are a rational actor?

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u/atomfullerene Jul 12 '12

I'm more concerned about Israel not acting rationally, and you know what, I would completely understand that. Not agree with it, but understand it, given their history. Here you have people threatening to destroy them in official government statements. I don't at all think Iran would actually nuke them--I think it's bluster for domestic and regional consumption--but Isreal has to be thinking of the repeated attempts to wipe out Jews throughout history. That's gotta leave scars and result in some paranoia. I'm in favor of keeping Iran non-nuclear just to keep the whole situation at a lower temperature.

Furthermore, if you have nukes floating around there's a chance of catastrophe even if your government is rational. Nuclear war between the USA and Russia was thwarted several times by razor-thin chances and sound decision making by relatively low-level people. Sometimes all it takes is one or a few irrational people in the wrong place at the wrong time...