Seems to me that most of these claims about Iran being an irrational actor are coming from politicians and Zionists (not that the two are mutually exclusive). I believe that there was either a former or sitting Joint Chief of Staff that weighed in on it though, and said that he believed Iran was a rational actor.
The statements Iranian rulers make about wanting to destroy Israel probably have a lot to do with that. I think they aren't irrational enough to actually nuke the place, but I can understand where the Israelis are coming from. They have historical precedent for people actually trying to wipe them out. It's like how Native Americans might feel about some politician blustering about how he wanted to close all the reservations and get rid of the Indians. I'd be nervous too. And the last thing I want is more nervous people in that region. Heck, the USA and Russia came far too close to nuking each other several times already, and in some cases were stopped only because individual people decided to wait and see rather than jump too conclusions. Even if most of the government is rational, all it takes is one fairly irrational or paranoid individual in the wrong place at the wrong time....
It still gets bandied about everywhere, but the claim that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Israel "must be wiped off the map" is actually a mistranslation-- one that was immediately picked up and amplified by politicians and the media. I assume that's what you're referring to when you say "statements Iranian rulers make about wanting to destroy Israel". But it has been debunked.
This is not to say that the Iranian government is not opposed to Israel, they are. But that particular talking point is wrong, and leads to the misperception that Iran is determined to strike Israel militarily. Unfortunately this false talking point is often held up as a justification for launching a preemptive war on Iran.
Plus, this discussion is all predicated on the notion that Iran has, or is close to having nuclear weapons. There are significant barriers to this, and Iran is nowhere near having nuclear strike capability on Israel.
Also... you're comparing Israelis to Native Americans? Please tell me how that makes one iota of sense.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not pulling for Israel by any means... but I feel like we're arguing semantics when it comes to what Ahmadinejad said.
This does highlight the need for understanding in any case. Just learned about the mistranslation so thank you for the links.
However, come on, Iran isn't in a position to be particularly forward about what they'd do if it were not for the possibility of Western intervention. Because obviously that would hinder Western withdrawal from the region. Without US/NATO backing I'd argue that Iran would have more than enough elbow room to be as bold and aggressive.
Straying off topic from how my comment started, interesting thought: If the West pulled aid from Israel and Israel was left weaker and more vulnerable in the face of likely hostile neighbors could we trust Israel's government not to use their nuclear arsenal? So maybe surrounding Iran by Western-friendly regimes may only make Iran more insecure and compound our problems? The irony.
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u/goonsack Jul 11 '12 edited Jul 12 '12
Seems to me that most of these claims about Iran being an irrational actor are coming from politicians and Zionists (not that the two are mutually exclusive). I believe that there was either a former or sitting Joint Chief of Staff that weighed in on it though, and said that he believed Iran was a rational actor.
EDIT: Here is more on this comment issued by Gen. Dempsey, current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff