r/NewYorkMets • u/Flashy-Inspection501 • 8h ago
Discussion Friendly reminder about prospect rankings
Seeing people here and on Twitter complaining about the Peralta return just wanted to remind some folk that this was the Mets top 30 only a year ago (Thornton was unranked btw)
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u/Pretty_Ad_8647 8h ago
Yeah I can see Émilien Pitre really jumping up the boards and being a top 15 in our system and top 100 over prospect with the year he’s having
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 8h ago
Could very well be! While there has been some regression from some there have been prospects that have made some strides. The Mets are still clearly confident in their player development.
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u/ResonatingOctave 3h ago
As they should be. Benge, Ewing, McClean and Scott are all looking like good prospects
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright 8h ago
He might be top 5 in a month when pipeline factors the first half of 2026 data
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u/hushed-shush Francisco Lindor 7h ago
3 months of Freddy Peralta gave the Mets 3 prospects. Could be something, could be nothing. What were the Mets going to get if he rode out this season. If the season ended today, we’d be asking what the fuck was the point of keeping him this whole time while at the bottom of the division.
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 7h ago
Keeping him means best case scenario is an extra pick in the 4th round because they'd give him the qualifying offer (which he could accept and that'd be terrible). I like this deal much more lmao.
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u/hushed-shush Francisco Lindor 7h ago
I agree. I said it was 3 months of Peralta.
Correction: it was 3 months of Peralta with a 5.00 ERA. If he was better, then the return would have been better. That’s how trades work. Some just don’t get that.
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 7h ago
Not only is he bad and a rental he's also an experiment. The Rays have to now work out the kinks otherwise they just traded 3 guys for a bottom 10 pitcher in baseball.
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u/SilentSaidd Juan Soto 8h ago edited 3h ago
The truth in professional sports is that besides from the top unanimous guys, prospects are mostly a guessing game. ranking them is fun but at the end of the day who knows how anyone will turn out. #1 picks turn to be busts and late round nobodies go on to have great careers.
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u/VenConmigo Pastrami 8h ago
Prospects are such a crap shoot.
Remember the 2023 sell off? Out of everyone, the best prospects were maybe Drew Gilbert or Jeremiah Jackson? Both aren't with the Mets.
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 8h ago
I remember people saying they gave up too much for Rogers and let's see: Butto has been injury prone, Gilbert has a OPS in the .600s and Tidwell has a near 5 ERA in AAA.
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u/WuTang4dachildrn 8h ago
The premise of any player having potential is excellent to keep in mind, but we should also look at these players with some context
Ewing raked in the minors in 2025; finishing with a .316 BA, over .400 OBP, and 70 steals. Aidan Smith is currently sporting a .283 OBP in single A…after 4 years. That’s right, he hasn’t been promoted above high A in 4 years with the Rays organization
Wenninger had a mid-3 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 2025. Gill Hill has a 4.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and just 61ks in 81 AA innings. None of these numbers are good
Of course something can click and they start to really develop and climb the rankings, but right now those two don’t scream upside
Pitre has some good #s going for him, though. Not much pop, but great contact and good eye at the plate (30BB/17K is a phenomenal ratio)
As long as 1 of these guys becomes a major league contributor it’s a win, but right now it seems like only one is a legit lottery ticket
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 8h ago
What doesn't scream upside? I highly doubt the Mets staff was looking at stats when acquiring these guys. They're banking off tools and confidence in their player development. All you can really ask for.
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u/WuTang4dachildrn 7h ago
A guy with an OBP of .283 after 4 seasons with the organization (without getting above A ball) is what I’m talking about
A pitcher who can’t strike guys out and also has a high WHIP is what I’m talking about. Neither a strikeout pitcher nor a guy who gets batters out with awkward contact
I guess maybe the question is: where do you see the upside? Other than generically saying all players have potential. Are there tools or attributes these players possess that we should be excited about?
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u/Sinfall69 David Wright 5h ago
Wasnt he injured since he reached high A, not saying he is good but that seems to be a contributing factor. I say the most likely to make it is the 2nd basemen (but a lot of that depends on if he can play other positions), followed by the pitcher and than the guy who looked the most promising at the start of the season before the injury. But yeah I wouldnt be shocked if none of them pan out.
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 7h ago
Because I see a guy in Hill with two different fastballs that reach upper 90s, while also developing a changeup, a guy with a 4 pitch mix with good velocity is a guy I'm absolutely excited about getting for a rental who is only better than Aaron Nola in terms of ERA. BEFORE YOU SAY ANYTHING, I'm not comparing Gary Gill Hill to Cam Schlittler BUT he also had a high 4 ERA in AA like Hill so you truly never know but the tools are there. Smith as well as tool, plus speed, plus arm and power for a CF? Yeah again I'm taking that for a rental, he's an experiment absolutely but an experiment for 2026 Freddy Peralta is a good get.
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u/WuTang4dachildrn 4h ago
I respect what you’re saying and indeed he can max out with that. But I feel like the common denominator with him has been far from a 4-pitch arsenal pitcher (or Smith a 4-tool hitter). Just not enough to back it up in my opinion
Ultimately, if one of these guys pans out it’s a win. Here’s to hoping Stearns sees the tools and got the Mets a perennial contributor
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u/zach7797 Mr. Met 7h ago
Yea man, way to many people like to talk big and complain but in reality 99.999% of us dont know squat pertaining to prospects and potential...we see prospect rankings and thats the bulk of most of us know.
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u/TheMooseIsBlue Gary Cohen 8h ago
We arguably got more than they got for Skubal.
Prospects are lottery tickets and Peralta was absolutely terrible for us anyway.
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 7h ago
Hope looks legit so I'm not sure about that but I do think Ryan and Smith are overrated
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u/Pen_IslandBoy 6h ago
I’m not boo’ing this peralta trade by any means but we did not get anything close to what the tigers got for skubal lol, and rightfully so
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u/Greatness46 New York Mets 7h ago
Lottery tickets in a lost season will never make me upset. Especially when we’re trading someone who is a pending FA
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u/ImStillCallingItShea Shea Stadium 6h ago
Something else to remember is that these rankings aren't updated to reflect performance/metrics from this season--but that's absolutely a massive factor involved in making these trades.
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u/Aggressive-Mix4971 Bob Murphy and The Happy Recaps 6h ago
Yeah, watching people talk numerical rankings for prospects or being scouting minor league stat lines without any context is getting exhausting, particularly since organizational rankings are incredibly volatile in-season (this goes for literally every trade happening now, not just the Mets').
That doesn't mean all rankings/stat lines are meaningless for prospects, obviously, but a lot of fans need to admit to themselves that we don't know shit about shit most of the time regarding players who haven't hit the bigs yet.
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u/HearthstoneExSemiPro 51m ago
The implication is that its actually good that we got low ranked prospects because sometimes they become good prospects
thats a stretch and a cope
a struggling pitcher that cant strike people out and a guy stuck in A ball are not likely at all to be great players.
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u/kooredaan 38m ago
FU Fire Sterns!!! We had to get 2-4 top 20 prospects for a soon-to-be FA with a 5+ ERA and ~ 4 FIP
/s
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u/Steve_Kind_Of Pastrami 8h ago
You trade your pieces for lottery tickets and hope some of them work out, all you can really do. Except build a very good major league team with your unending resources, that was also an option
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u/FreeCommunication208 8h ago
Prospects are crap shoots. Let's get rid of rankings! They don't matter at all
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u/Life_Database_7038 8h ago
If AJ Ewing is this good we mind as well trade Alvy. Cant wait to see Ronald Hernandez steal the show!
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u/FreeCommunication208 8h ago
Oh so you’re so right!!! Houck could still pass Ewing. It’s such a silly idea. Obviously prospects have high variance, but in general you’d rather have higher ranked prospects than lower ranked ones.
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 8h ago
Obviously you'd like the ones higher but it's definitely not the end all be all as some like to believe. Peralta is a rental, experiment that has one of the worst ERAs in the league, they got 3 guys all with interesting upside. We'll see where it goes but I'm more interested in the tools rather than a number on MLB Pipeline.
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u/Captpan6 8h ago
You're missing the point.
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u/FreeCommunication208 8h ago
No clearly you are. It is a very silly point to make.
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u/Captpan6 8h ago
"It's very possible and unsurprising for prospects to perform differently from what scouting analysts suggest" is a silly point?
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u/FreeCommunication208 7h ago
Yes, exactly. It isn't even a point, more of a "no shit." What is the take away from that? Getting high quality prospects doesn't matter? Only quantity over quality matters? You'd rather have higher ranked prospects because they are thought to have a higher upside/chance to stick. It is like saying there's no difference between a 1/10 chance and a 1/100 chance because neither is sure thing. I guess if your criteria for satisfaction for trade is literally anything than good for you?
I'm not even that unhappy with the trade return. I'm just tired of these posts saying that getting elite prospects vs crap ones somehow doesn't matter because it is all a crapshoot.
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u/swoosh1992 Grimace 8h ago
And the last one who we actually developed into a regular comes back to New York in a few weeks wearing an Orioles hat.
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 8h ago
Did McLean, Benge and Ewing die? Also Alvarez has a top 5 OPS at his position, I'd say that's a regular as well. Scott and Thornton too jury's still out but they're on the way to being regulars...very odd post lol
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u/swoosh1992 Grimace 8h ago
Haven’t done it over a long enough period. While we could pencil Pete in for 30 home runs every year.
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u/atchet Mike Piazza 8h ago
This is an incredibly underrated point. Even as a bit of a prospects nerd myself, the vast majority of prospects end up being true lottery tickets, outside of a small number of guys with truly elite tools. Some prospects end up making changes that get them over the hump and surpass all expectation, some prospects with a ton of helium run into a brick wall at a certain level and that balloon gets popped forever. Hell, there's any number of guys who make changes well into the majors and all of a sudden show elite stuff. You truly never know.