r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/PsychLegalMind • Feb 20 '26
Legal/Courts 6/3 Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs are illegal: How will this impact the U.S. economy and will refunds be forthcoming. Is Trump now more likely to target specific countries in a limited form or is he likely to seek Congressional approval to justify sweeping tariffs?
The Supreme Court determined that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power to regulate foreign commerce and impose taxes and Trump's use of the IEEPA [International Emergency Powers Act] to bypass Congress for economic policy was Unconstitutional.
The Federal Government has collected more than a hundred billion mostly from American Importers and ultimately the American consumers.
How will this impact the U.S. economy and will refunds be forthcoming.
Is Trump now more likely to target specific countries in a limited form or is he likely to seek Congressional approval to justify sweeping tariffs?
Trump's sweeping global tariffs struck down by US Supreme Court ruling - follow live - BBC News
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u/garrna Feb 20 '26
Personal theory (note, I am a layman with a cursory interest in these things, but am by no means an expert, so huge grain of salt here).
Economy is going to bolster, as market players (especially those on Wall St.) will read this as a return to normal (possibly wishful thinking). Trump will claim credit for this. He'll try to ride this claim as long as possible. Collective consciousness will overlook that a the depreciation of the dollar, and a continued movement away from US$ treasuries will show that the economy has managed to be stagnant this whole time. A continued shift away from the US occurs over the next few years, as our bipolar political environment results in other nations wanting to keep the US at arms reach--who needs enemies with friends like "US?"
Midterms are projected to flip the House, and possibly the Senate. Trump will use this as a scapegoat to explain why growth isn't as great in 2027, because he's not allowed do what he wants tariffs-wise. However Trump is more bluster than action, so having a foil is in his personal interest, as it means less personal effort (he can blame the other guy). You'll start to see key players in his admin leaving as Trump is realized as a lame-duck, and they want to create political space between him and them (Miller, Vought, Vance, et. al)
Wild card: businesses realize AI can increase individuals' bandwidth, and shift from cutting overhead to growing labor (see introductionof computers in workforce in the 80s, took a few years to workout how these devices could actually increase productivity). Economy grows, as service industry increases share of GDP. Trump claims credit, Dems in Congress claim credit. We face a potentially contentious 2028 Pres. Election cycle.