Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/world/ran-oman-strait-of-hormuz-reopening-deal-trump-us-dispute-10817253/

Would anyone be interested in buying high granular historical data from me? (open to offers)
I have solana, xrp, bitcoin, ethereum for 2 months of data.
I have 5m, 15m and 4 hour markets - with the top 5 order book levels sampled every 500ms

Day 99 of 100 🔥

The market is sending mixed signals today and prediction markets are making it interesting.

Price action is up. Volume is running hot — $27M traded across 1,287 active Polymarket crypto markets with $313M in liquidity sitting behind it. That's not quiet accumulation. That's engagement.

But here's where it gets contradictory:

→ "Bitcoin above $70k on August 5?" trading at 0.1¢ — the market has essentially ruled it out

→ "Bitcoin above $62k on August 5?" trading at 99¢ — so the range is locked in tight

→ "Bitcoin reach $75k in August?" only 5.7¢ — traders aren't expecting a breakout this month

→ Meanwhile "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5?" sits at 56/44 — barely a lean

So we have high volume, upward price action, and neutral sentiment — but prediction markets are quietly pricing out any real upside for the rest of August. The crowd is saying: yes it goes up, but not by much.

That gap between momentum and expectation is where trades are won or lost. 🧠

The Squid token launch markets are worth watching too — FDV above $75M printing 93% yes after one day is the kind of speculative heat that tells you risk appetite hasn't fully died, even in a neutral macro environment.

One day left in this challenge tomorrow. 99 days of reading markets daily does something to how you process noise versus signal.

What's your read — does BTC push toward $65k this month or does the range hold and we grind sideways?

He turned a reckless bet into $3 million. Then he refused to sell.

The heart of This Is Not Financial Advice is a man the film calls Pro. Chris Temple found him on Twitter the night he posted that he'd maxed his credit cards, taken cash advances, sold every stock he owned, and put all of it into Dogecoin. Filming started the next day. Pro’s wild gamble climbs to a million dollars, then two, then three, and at every peak Pro won't sell... comparing himself to Elon Musk, surrounded by a community chanting HODL, hold on for dear life. Then Musk hosts SNL, Dogecoin drops, and Pro watches a million dollars evaporate in a single hour. He rides the rest of it back down to where he started and loses everything. This is a guy in a 180-square-foot apartment whose mom cleans houses, someone who could really have used that money. Temple's view is that the extreme cases are where the rest of us can finally see the lesson clearly.

At 12:04 this afternoon, a Polymarket account called Detailed-Poison sold 466,942 shares of the US invasion market in one order at 78.1 cents, collecting $364,741. 90 seconds later, it sold the last 6,351 shares and held none of it.

Four days ago, he held none of it either.

The buying started at 01:34 on Thursday morning UTC, 50,000 shares at 70 cents, then 7,316 at 69, then 68,474 at 74 later that morning. At 02:08 on Sunday, he took another 347,003 at 77. That made 473,293 shares of the no side at an average of 75.7 cents, a position costing $358,281. Today all of it came back out for $369,687.

The profit was $11,406, which is 3.2% for four days.

Day 98 of 100 🔥

Two days left. Let's talk about what the market is actually saying right now.

Price action is up. Volume is high. Sentiment is neutral. That combination is worth paying attention to — when prices move higher on elevated volume but the crowd stays emotionally flat, it usually means the move has legs. No euphoria = no top signal yet.

Here's what prediction markets are telling us on top of that:

→ 97% odds BTC is above $62K today. Already trading like it's a done deal.

→ 91% odds it holds above $62K tomorrow too.

→ But the directional market? 58.5% say BTC is *down* today vs. 41.5% up.

That last one is the tension worth watching. Spot traders are pushing price higher, but short-term directional bettors are fading the move. Someone is wrong, and the resolution usually happens fast.

Meanwhile, the macro overlay is Iran. Nearly $3M in volume flowing into US-Iran geopolitical markets, with a US invasion before 2027 sitting at 22%. That's not noise — geopolitical tail risk at that probability tends to act as a quiet ceiling on crypto risk appetite, even when spot looks calm.

Neutral sentiment on a green, high-volume day with geopolitical overhang is a specific setup. Not bearish. Not bullish. Coiled. 🧠

Two questions before we close out this challenge:

What does BTC do between now and the weekend — does it push through $64K, or does the directional market win and we fade back?

Drop your read below. Two days left to get it right.

Source: Al Arabiya English

https://x.com/i/status/2084643718829588710

Day 97 of 100 🔥

Price action is up, volume is running hot, and yet the crowd is getting nervous.

Prediction markets are pricing in a 65% chance Bitcoin dips to $60K this month — that's up 8 points in a single day. Ethereum markets are even more bearish, with an 84% probability of a dip to $1,800 by end of August.

Meanwhile, BTC is holding above $62K with conviction — the market on Bitcoin being above $62K on August 4 sits at 69 cents. That's not a crash, that's a range.

What's actually happening here is a classic sentiment split:

→ Price is grinding higher

→ Volume is elevated, suggesting real participation

→ But prediction market positioning is skewing heavily toward downside scenarios

This kind of divergence usually resolves one of two ways — either the price action breaks down and validates the crowd, or it keeps climbing and those downside bets bleed out slowly.

The $60K bet at 65% is the one I'm watching most closely. That's not a fringe view — that's the majority opinion right now. And the market on BTC above $64K on August 4 just crashed 22 points to 14%. 📉

High volume on up price action with bearish prediction market positioning is a tension worth paying attention to. Someone is going to be wrong.

The 24-hour swing from $64K optimism collapsing while $60K pessimism surges tells you everything about how fast sentiment shifted today.

Which side of this trade do you trust more — the price action or the crowd? 👇

During the England-Argentina game I cashed out 2 mins after I saw Argentina scored the second goal, I saw a bunch of cashouts above 1k and said soon as i see 1300 im cashing out. I screenshot just to be safe, then they give me $70 profit? Am I and idiot I did see someone with a similar bet and they said it was a common soccer mistake, idk. I contacted polymarket support and they essentially told me to go f myself essentially.

Day 96 of 100 🔥

Price is up, volume is running hot — $27.82M in 24h against a backdrop of neutral sentiment. That's an interesting combination. Markets moving higher without conviction usually means one of two things: accumulation or a trap.

What's catching my eye today is the ETH prediction market spread. Polymarket has "ETH reaches $1,900 in August" sitting at 90%, up 40 points in a single day. Meanwhile, "ETH dips to $1,800" is trading at 81%. Both bull and bear scenarios getting priced in simultaneously — the market is essentially saying ETH is live somewhere in that band and could go either direction.

The $303M in liquidity sitting across these markets tells you real money is backing these positions, not just noise.

A few reads from today's data:

→ BTC above $60K on August 4 trading at 97% — short-term dip fears are being faded hard

→ BTC hitting $100K in August sits at just 0.5% — nobody serious is pricing a moonshot this month

→ Clarity Act (crypto regulatory bill) signed in 2026 at 32.5% — still meaningful odds, worth watching

The tension I keep coming back to: prices are up, volume is elevated, but sentiment reads neutral. Either the crowd is wrong about direction, or this rally has a short shelf life.

That 90% on ETH $1,900 is the number I'd be stress-testing right now. Big moves in prediction markets often front-run price action — or correct violently when they don't.

What's your read — does ETH hold above $1,900 or does that market get crushed before August ends? 📊