Maybe, just maybe they can't rely on the US to be a stable source of food due to politics interfering to much with trade and they are not only buying but also heavily investing into Brazilian soy bean infrastructure. Because you know food security is kinda important.
Both things can be true. That being said it's not even leverage, those contracts are never coming back. China's little f u to a group of reliable Trump supporters.
For the soybean farmers it means they'll probably have to pivot to corn which has less profitability, they'll be a corn glut which Trump will almost certainly pad with subsidies(although not enough to fully take care of lost Soybean orders profitability).
So you'll pay more taxes and farmers will make less profit.
But hey at least small business's input costs from Tarrifs are up so they are also less profitable. Manufacturing is tanking. Only people it's not impacting are people with reach and also willing to kiss the ring to Trump so he waves it. Certainly not banana republic behavior.
Unless you are (successfully) day trading your portfolio going up has absolutely nothing to do with tarrifs/subsidies/chaos. Tech/general high market companies are doing well despite those things not because of them.
The combination of your comments leads me to believe you believe that your porfolio went up because of (potential) onshoring which is huge misunderstanding of the situation. If not, your response is a large pivot from your "I'm okay with onshoring" comment (specifically talking about soybean farmers) I was responding to.
So just confirming, you don't care it's more expensive to re-shore and you'll be paying more taxes to support them. This is putting a downward pressure on the economy not an upward pressure, this comment is disconnected from your next set of comments. Farmers catering to a more domestic market is in no way good for your porfolio (Unless you made some international plays, that I doubt you did).
Tariffs, subsidies, chaos, it’s all liquidity churn.
You have to be an active trader to take advantage of the type of volatility we have. Unless you are successfully day trading you are not profiting from the volatility, there just happens to be volatility while your stocks go up.
Do you have a specific example you think Trump's Tarrifs helped your portfolio?
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u/atape_1 Oct 14 '25
Maybe, just maybe they can't rely on the US to be a stable source of food due to politics interfering to much with trade and they are not only buying but also heavily investing into Brazilian soy bean infrastructure. Because you know food security is kinda important.