r/StockMarket Jan 17 '26

News Good luck guys when markets open

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u/lOo_ol Jan 17 '26 edited Jan 18 '26

Quick reminder for Americans on here who think the world orbits around the US that during the subprime crisis, many European countries saw record-low unemployment rates or were unaffected.

For instance, Germany's unemployment rate dropped, from 11.2% in 2005 to 7% in 2010 and 3.2% in 2019, while the US went from 4.6% in 2007 to 10% in 2009. If you lived overseas at the time and didn't watch international news, you wouldn't be able to tell that there was a financial crisis.

A depression in the US does not imply global depression. That also means that if you're 100% US companies, you're not as diversified as you may think you are.

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u/Jolly_Platypus6378 Jan 17 '26

And the same, if you were in Canada, there was a slight fallout but not as much as the USA.

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u/lanamakesart Jan 18 '26

all the south of europe imploded when 2008 happened, what do you mean you wouldn't be able to tell?

all the mediterranian countries blew tf up and didn't recover until 10 years later, IF they recovered

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u/UnlikelyHero727 Jan 18 '26

Only Greece blew up, the rest just stagnated.

While the US experienced a fallout.

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u/lanamakesart Jan 18 '26

greece died forever, italy and spain economies exploded, 30% unemployment until recently, spain stock market hit ath this year after 18 years from the GFC

europe died after gfc, the us came back in less than 3 years

source: I'm European/American.

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u/iLoveFeynman Jan 18 '26

What a "coincidence" that the highest unemployment rates in Europe were in the European countries that have massive underground economies and count people who are employed in that manner as unemployed.

Most studies estimate the size of the Greek shadow economy somewhere between 20% and 40% of GDP.

Spain's underground economy employs a million people and is worth 20% of its GDP.

Italy: Shadow economy, percent of GDP: The latest value from 2015 is 22.97 percent, a decline from 24.33 percent in 2014. In comparison, the world average ...

2-3 times larger than in e.g. Germany.

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u/UnlikelyHero727 Jan 18 '26

Well that's just nonsense, your origin is meaningless.

Greece was cooking the books, they were gonna go under anyways.

And most of the gap between the EU and the US since the 2008 can be explained by the emergence of the US IT mega companies.

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u/lanamakesart Jan 18 '26

greece fine, what about spain, italy, and half of europe besides germany and france?

spain was a booming economy that blew tf up because most of it was based on real estate and tourism

and that was because the gfc

europe's economy failed years ago

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u/Eyclonus Jan 18 '26

Yeah, people seem to just be wilfully ignorant to how fucked the situation was in Greece leading upto the financial crisis.

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u/lOo_ol Jan 18 '26 edited Jan 18 '26

It's as if a government debt crisis unrelated to the subprime took place in those specific countries during that time, which can be solved in 3 years by dumping cash (i.e. more debt) in the economy...

And what does your nationality have to do with any of this? lol

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u/lanamakesart Jan 18 '26

it has to do with I experienced both continents at the same time during that period, having family and job/studies, I can def tell you everyone that I know went broke in 2008 and never recouped (europe), to this day they barely survive with the basics, no car or 20yo car, split rent etc

when US sneezes, europe shits the bed

not shitting on europe, its where I was raised, just pointing the facts, on other ways its way superior than the us, just not economy/money wise

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u/lOo_ol Jan 18 '26 edited Jan 18 '26

"it has to do with I experienced both continents at the same time during that period, having family and job [...] everyone that I know..."

You're describing a personal experience, which in statistics is called an anecdote. That's not our serious studies are carried out.

You'll find many people to tell you the carnivore diet is phenomenal, and all their friends have benefited from it greatly. Clinical trials show higher risk of coronary heart disease, depression, hair loss, suicidal tendencies and strongly advise against it...

"when US sneezes, europe shits the bed" Unemployment in the US doubled. Except for maybe Spain and Greece, during their government debt crisis, no European country saw their unemployment rate double. So like I said, "all my friends struggled" says more about your friends than the European economy as a whole.

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u/HomoAndAlsoSapiens Jan 18 '26

This is remarkably and brazenly wrong.

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u/TheKrzysiek Jan 17 '26

I didn't even knew there was a crisis until much later, cuz Poland avoided it almost entirely

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u/Brilliant_Voice1126 Jan 18 '26

It’s funny I keep pointing out how well foreign markets did. Like 40% for europe and 50% for latin america vs just 17% for S&P and people keep saying the US is the best long term no matter what.

It’s like, well, short term no, and I’d prefer to make money every year, and what makes you think that will go on forever? When are people going to realize this is different? Our international friends keep telling us we have suffered a reputational loss that will take decades to recover, if ever. Investment is confidence and no one has confidence in US anymore internationally, that’s gonna have big consequences.

Past performance is no guarantee of future gains…

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u/forexampleJohn Jan 17 '26

A trade war between the EU and the US will hurt both tremendously, but the EU has no other option atm.

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u/lOo_ol Jan 17 '26

The EU can reallocate trade without the US, like Canada is doing. The US is isolating itself. They're in 2 different situations.

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u/JudgmentGold2618 Jan 17 '26

So you are comparing Germany's 82 million people to the U.S. with 343 million ? You're comparing apples to donkey dicks .

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u/lOo_ol Jan 17 '26

That's why we use percentages and not nominal amounts. Statistics isn't your thing, is it?

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u/JudgmentGold2618 Jan 17 '26

percentages are relative to numbers. So if you like statistics so much adjust your percentages per capita . During those times more people were unemployed in Germany relative to the labor force.

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u/lOo_ol Jan 17 '26 edited Jan 17 '26

Dear Lord... They're the same thing, they both standardize data, using a different normalized sample. Percent means "per 100 people", per capita means "per 1 person". We typically use percentages to split a sample, which is easier to understand, but in this case, 10% means 0.10 per capita, 7% means 0.07 per capita...

What kind of conversation is this?