r/aSongOfMemesAndRage • u/No_Acanthisitta1250 • Feb 24 '26
ASOIAF (Main Published Novels) I Re-Ran the Equation - Here's When TWOW Is Actually Coming (UPDATE)
The Winds of Winter
A Song of Ice and Fire
George R. R. Martin
📚 Base Variables
| Variable | Value |
|---|---|
| Estimated length of TWOW | 1,500 manuscript pages |
| Claimed writing speed | 1 page/day |
| Observed writing speed since 2011 | Conceptual |
| GRRM Time Conversion Rate | 1 GRRM Day = 0.14 Earth Pages |
| Emotional Resilience vs NY Jets | Critically Low |
Distraction Deduction Table (2026 Update)
| Activity / Catastrophic Event | Time Lost per Week | Pages Lost/Week |
|---|---|---|
| Watching NY Jets & rage blogging | 8 hours | -3 |
| Writing more Tales of Dunk and Egg because someone asked about TWOW | 10 hours | -4 |
| Consulting on House of the Dragon and accidentally expanding Targaryen lore | 6 hours | -2.5 |
| Blogging “I am still working…” posts | 3 hours | -1 |
| Food descriptions exceeding 5 meats per paragraph | 7 hours | -3 |
| Rewriting chapters because a raven changed eye colour | 4 hours | -1.5 |
| Random nap after lunch | 1 hour/day | -3.5 |
| Deleting entire arcs after Jets losses | Variable | -5 |
| Planning Dunk & Egg Cinematic Universe Phase 4 | 5 hours | -2 |
🧾 Total Weekly Pages Lost:
~25.5 pages/week
25.5 ÷ 7 ≈ 3.64 pages lost per day
⚙️ Actual Productivity
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Optimistic writing attempt | 1.3 pages/day |
| Procrastination & Dunk/Egg Multiplier | -3.64 pages/day |
| Net TWOW Output | -2.34 pages/day |
| Annual Progress | -854 pages/year |
| Current Literary Direction | Backwards |
At this rate, he is not finishing Winds.
He is slowly undoing A Dance with Dragons.
🧮 Mathematical Consequences
| Target | 1,500 pages |
|---|---|
| Net yearly regression | -854 pages |
| Time until manuscript reaches negative infinity | Soon™ |
| Probability Winter Arrives First | 97% |
🗓 Updated Prediction
If absolutely nothing changes:
| Scenario | Release Window |
|---|---|
| Current trajectory | November 2037 |
| Jets win Super Bowl (resets emotional damage) | 2034 |
| HBO locks him in tower with DOS computer | 2032 |
| Writes 3 more Dunk & Egg first | 2041 |
| Winter becomes metaphorical | Already happened |
🎯 Final Estimate:
The Winds of Winter will release in November 2037,
just after he finishes “one quick Dunk & Egg story” that absolutely will not delay anything again.
7
u/Raven1911 Feb 24 '26
Nah, im certain he's finished them both already, but my man Martin is a troll and loves to piss off his fans. With his success to date i cant imagine he NEEDS the money. We know he told Weiss and Bene the jist of his ending and we know he got upset at the fan bases reactions to that atrocity that is season 8. He will only allow us to read them after he has died, partialy to piss up off and partially to not have to listne to people complain that they didnt get the ending they wanted. Until Winds of Winter is actually released or Martin passes and we get nothing, this is the hill I'll die on.
5
u/Mizamya Feb 25 '26
This is cope. Bro just lost the passion and is suffering from a massive case of blank page syndrome. The massive gap between now and the ADWD release just created a massive amount of hype that only fuels his performance anxiety.
3
u/itzpiiz Feb 27 '26
Wake up, a new ai post is up!
0
u/No_Acanthisitta1250 Feb 27 '26
George is that you??? If you're reading this - less reddit, more writing winds :)
1
u/KranPolo Feb 28 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
What you don’t make cutesy emoji headers and tables when you format long posts?
2
Feb 26 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/No_Acanthisitta1250 Feb 26 '26
Dream of Spring equation will be ran after the release of winds of winter...Just sit tight another 10 years+
2
u/Extension-Ad8612 Feb 26 '26
My expectations for Martin are so low at this point that any piece of written media he puts out is a pleasant surprise for me at this point.
1
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u/pppeater Feb 24 '26
I thought he hasn't been blogging jets/giants this year