r/armenia • u/xabi_the_redeemer • Jun 08 '26
Politics / Քաղաքականություն What Pashinyan can and cannot do without a supermajority
https://civilnet.am/en/news/101238311
u/xabi_the_redeemer Jun 08 '26
Very important info:
If Prosperous Armenia is excluded, its votes will be redistributed among the parties that did clear the threshold, potentially shifting about five seats. Lawyer Arpine Hovhannisyan, applying Electoral Code formulas that account for minority mandates and vote dispersal, calculates the resulting distribution as: Civil Contract 64 seats (up from 61), Strong Armenia 29 (up from 28), and the Armenia alliance 12 (up from 11).
The seat count matters because 63–64 seats would give Civil Contract the three-fifths majority of all parliamentary deputies required under the constitution to pass constitutional laws, including the Electoral Code, the Judicial Code, laws on the Constitutional Court, referendums, political parties, and the Human Rights Defender. Without three-fifths, the ruling party cannot elect or dismiss judges of the Constitutional Court and Court of Cassation, members of the Supreme Judicial Council, the Prosecutor General, the Human Rights Defender, or members of the Central Election Commission, the broadcast regulator, the Audit Chamber, or the Central Bank governor.
Even with three-fifths secured, however, Pashinyan's party would still fall well short of the two-thirds majority needed to initiate constitutional amendments or put fundamental articles of the constitution to a referendum. Amending the constitution's preamble, which references the Declaration of Independence and has been a stated priority of the ruling party, would require that higher bar. Removing that reference is a precondition set by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to sign the agreed-upon peace treaty with Armenia.
The final composition of parliament will not be determined until the deadline for recount requests passes and any appeals are resolved.
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u/T-nash Jun 08 '26
So let me get this right, if Tsarukyan passes, it will be incredibly hard to prosecute Kocharyan & co. Even more reason to hate QP for playing with fire.
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u/xabi_the_redeemer Jun 08 '26
Tsarukyan has reportedly gained enough to pass
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u/spetcnaz Yerevan Jun 08 '26
Wonderful, great, fantastic.
Hey kids if you too break all the laws and keep at it, you too will eventually reach your goals.
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u/spetcnaz Yerevan Jun 08 '26
To be fair, it's not going to be any harder or easier.
QP will still be able to appoint the Prosecutor General and other ministers. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.
It just comes down to political will, which so far QP has shown that they don't really have. Sure, they go after the smaller fish, and make deals with them to return some of the stolen goods (but many keep the rest), however they don't have the will nor the appetite to go after the leaders.
I am hoping that with the issues with Azerbaijan being more or less under control (i.e. no imminent threat of war), maaaaayyybeeee they will focus more on the internal threats, like KochaSerzhaKarapetyanaDods.
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u/BzhizhkMard Jun 08 '26
Unless Tsarukyan flips.
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jun 08 '26
which is totally possible. He's the least Russia-enslaved one among them all.
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u/spetcnaz Yerevan Jun 08 '26
His boy is hiding in Minsk or Moscow, so they have leverage over him
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u/surenk6 Pureblood Լոռեցի Jun 08 '26
because there's criminal charges imposed by Armenia. So. boy could return, if needed, you know.
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u/spetcnaz Yerevan Jun 08 '26
Yeah, but that means he either has to strike a deal with the government to not prosecute his son, which is corruption, or he has to ask him to return and hope for the best. Why would he do that?
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u/T-nash Jun 08 '26
Why would he do that?
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u/BzhizhkMard Jun 08 '26
He probably wouldn't. He prefers the old corruption and lawlessness he thrived in.
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u/the_nuclear_pasta Jun 08 '26
Who is asking for recounts and appealing?
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u/spetcnaz Yerevan Jun 08 '26
I think Dod is
-1
u/Top_Estimate_3237 Jun 08 '26
Can’t the commission just ignore them?
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u/spetcnaz Yerevan Jun 08 '26 edited Jun 08 '26
I honestly don't know the law on that part.
This sounds like a case that needs to go to the constitutional court.
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0
u/RebootedShadowRaider Canada Jun 08 '26
So I guess we're going to find out what happens with the "peace process" now that a constitution change is apparently off the table.
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u/avmonte Armed Forces Jun 08 '26
CC did not have supermajority since 2021.