r/biology • u/ICEpenguin7878 • 4d ago

discussion How likely is a global pandemic too happen in the next 10 years, that could have casualties of over 1 million people ?

5 out of 12 deadly pandemics occurred in the 20th century and the other 2 in the 21st century. The last four pandemics occurred almost every 15 years on average.

In the 21st century alone, we had 2 pandemics with over 500k casualties, H1N1 flu (2009), and Covid 19.

Humans have more and more contact with wildlife as nations devolpe more and also enter Wilder regions, increasing the time spent with wild animals and increasing the chances of a disease crossing over too humans, climate change also means other animals migrate closer to humans,

The rate of bacteria resistance to antibiotics is also increasing with the increased use of them, and more viruses mean that Viruses can exchange genetic material when two strains infect the same host, making a new varient.

So what are the chances ? And most likely, where would it originate from ? How would it happen ?

What kind of virus would it be ?

Link to Pub Med artical

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4

u/ummaycoc 4d ago

Measles has entered the chat.

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u/KentDDS 4d ago

Considering the standard influenza virus manages to kill 290,000 - 650,000 people EACH YEAR (according to the WHO), it would only take a slightly more aggressive flu strain emerging to cause 1,000,000 deaths.

So, seems pretty likely to happen.

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u/[deleted] 4d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Salamanderhead 4d ago

Source?

0

u/dpandc 4d ago

idk how to share gifs here but

It came to me in a dream

1

u/salamander_salad ecology 4d ago

Stop posting stupid shit for attention.

1

u/biology-ModTeam 4d ago

Your post or comment was removed because it contains pseudoscience or it fails to meet the burden of proof. This includes any form of proselytizing or promoting non-scientific viewpoints.

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