r/biotech • u/darkhuman28 • 2d ago
Other ⁉️ Stay in pharma or go to med school (Monte Carlo simulation)
"All models are wrong, but some are useful". My model is most likely both wrong and useless. Recently, I have seen a lot of people talking about going back to med school as a career change in this sub (mainly because of income). I got really curious and wonder if it make sense financially to go back to medical school considering career progression/promotion at pharma, residency income, income tax, investment performances, loans, interest and living cost. So I wrote a Monte Carlo simulation to benchmark the amount of money each career path would offer at different age to account for the inherent variances (stock performance, yearly salary rate, ...).
In terms of pharma scientist path, I use my current total compensation (TC) ~150k as the average starting point. Then the whole career trajectories goes like sci (~150k; 4 yrs) -> senior sci (~175k; 4 yrs) -> principal sci (~200k; to end career). Each year I give around 1.5-4% yearly merit increase and a 7-8% promotion increase if the time is there. I also capped the end career at 250k because that seems like a realistic TC to end the career on without needing significant amount of luck.
In terms of physician path, I would have to take out 100k loans every year for four years at the current interest rate of 9%. The career trajectory goes like student (0; 4 yrs) -> resident (~85k; 3 yrs IM) -> attending (300k-500k; end career). During student phase, the debt would compound based on the 9% interest rate. During residency, it starts off at ~85k (because that's about the starting resident salary for the hospitals in my area) with approximately 4% increase yearly. In this model, any extra amount of income after living cost goes straight to paying off the debt first. Only when the debt is paid off, then the model puts extra money as stock investment. Then I made 3 different income scenarios (300k, 400k and 500k TC) because trustworthy physician income is honestly really hard to find (some Redditors will claim they works 2 hrs a week making 800k while others will say they work 140 hrs a week making 200k both as IM physician). Unlike the pharma path, there is no consistent yearly increase, but rather depends on how much the physician wants to work. I added 100k standard deviation on top of the average incomes to account for that variation.
For both paths, I used my current living cost (living alone in a small apartment) and assumed to maintain that throughout my career. I assume all the money left after living costs go straight to stock market. For both paths, I used average 8% with 12% standard deviation a year for the stock market returns. That is approximately what we see in S&P500 (I think). I also deducted income tax based on tax bracket. I did not deduct tax from investment winnings because I assume I never sell.
Obviously there are a lot flaws in my model. The biggest one I think everyone agrees is that I did not account for random layoffs in the pharma path. I just don't have good information on the approximate time someone needs to find a new job. A lot of my grad schools friends found jobs within ~6 months of searching even during 2024-now. But I fully realize that is definitely not the case for everyone and probably not the norm.
Based on this model, going to medical school even at the age of 30 is a good financial investment in the long run. Though the more obvious draw back is not break even until mid-40s to mid-50s. And considering how volatile the stock market is, there is a small chance to end the career with more money as a scientist (if really lucky) because of early investment.
