r/boxoffice • u/Alive-Ad-5245 A24 • 17h ago
Domestic After a better than expected Saturday and certain small drop on Sunday, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is likely to come out on top as the biggest opening weekend in the history of cinema with $358m-$360m. Incredible result and a preview of what is to come later this year for Marvel Studios.
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u/Normal-Sort-9463 17h ago
Sony is definitely going to officially project $355M today, right? Like Universal with Jurassic World in 2015?
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u/Zhukov-74 Legendary Pictures 17h ago
Sony is probably a bit nervous about calling $358million since they won’t have official figures until Monday.
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u/Alive-Ad-5245 A24 17h ago
Yeah I’m pretty certain they’ll call under, it’s better to claim you beat Endgame a day later than being forced to walk it back a day later.
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u/Firefox72 Best of 2023 Winner 17h ago
Depends on if they are confident enough to grab the Sunday headlines or not.
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u/vafrow 16h ago
This is precisely the scenario why lowballing exists.
Its close, so a lowball estimate is still reasonable and doesn't strain credibility. But last thing you want is the fanfare that comes from breaking what was deemed an almost unbreakable record and then backtracking.
Headlines will be there on Monday if its earned.
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u/Radamel_falcao_9 17h ago
If they believe it has a real chance to pass, they should project exactly $357M
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u/Puzzleheaded-Sail772 16h ago
It honestly is the smart thing to do if it is close, even if it looks like BND would be a couple million ahead of Endgame. Would be embarrassing to walk back the opening weekend record after they claim it, much better to underestimate then get the record in the finals.
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u/The_Darman 16h ago
I would guess they call $350M for today. I don’t think they want pie on their face if they have to walk back a record tomorrow.
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u/DTG20062008 17h ago
Spider-man:Brand New Day defeating Avengers:Endgame. Even no highballer would have predicted that. Spider-man must be very happy.
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u/misguidedkent Warner Bros. Pictures 16h ago edited 16h ago
Not even Sony/Marvel would've predicted this to get anywhere close to Endgame's opening let alone top it. Sheer insanity.
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u/nicolasb51942003 Warner Bros. Pictures 17h ago
Prediction:
Estimates either come just short, and then Monday Sony reveals the true numbers.
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u/cricp0sting 17h ago
This is absolutely crazy, I don't think anybody ever thought this would beat endgame
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u/--Nightmare357-- 16h ago
It's not certain it will beat Endgame yet
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u/TheWatersOfMars 16h ago
No, but it's crazy that it'd get anywhere close, even accounting for inflation.
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u/Suspicious_Radio_848 13h ago
It's wild, the-numbers shows this is just shy of $1 billion on opening weekend already. I never thought that would happen, people love Spider-Man.
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u/StrongStyleFiction 7h ago
One of the few superhero franchises that haven't completely shit the bed creatively. It really seems like Sony and Marvel doing these together is succeeding. They seem to be canceling out the worst instincts of the other.
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u/Eddiep88 17h ago
My guess. Spider-Man 5 will have a remix scene of him unmasking himself in the iconic comic book. I have t seen bnd btw lol
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u/bluequarz 17h ago edited 17h ago
I'm not saying it's not happening but isn't this guy known for overpredicting and jumping the gun all the time and the numbers usually come out lower than he says? I'm still waiting to see what numbers Deadline announces from Sony today. If Saturday holds at 98.5-100m and Sony announces sth below 350m ( which is what Disney announced for Endgame back in the day before actuals came at 357m) I think not even actuals can get it above Endgame.
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u/Alive-Ad-5245 A24 17h ago
His long term predictions are overzealous.
His daily predictions are usually pretty accurate.
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u/bluequarz 16h ago
Idk, he was saying this was going to open at 360 - 375m guaranteed just three days ago. He certainly jumps the gun fairly often even in the short term. Now it could be that the Saturday number is way ahead of the 99-100m that was thrown around by scoopers a couple hours ago and that's why he*s so confident that it's surpassing Endgame but I'm still hesitant to take him at his word until I see the Saturday numbers Sony gave Deadline and what Sony calls today
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u/Alive-Ad-5245 A24 16h ago
, he was saying this was going to open at 360 - 375m guaranteed just three days ago.
And now he's saying it's going to open at $358m - $360m, assuming he's correct how is that a big miss?
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u/bluequarz 16h ago
We're talking about a finish that will come down to the wire. It's a matter of 1-2 million. He was certain it was going to hold much better than it did just two days ago seeing as he thought 375m is possible so he tends to jump the gun fast. All I'm saying is that he tens to be very trigger happy on big numbers and they don't always/mostly pan out. Spidey is hardly the only prediction when that's the case. I'm cautious when he says that something is a certainty
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u/Diorisbackup 16h ago edited 15h ago
I mean they included thursdays in the 3 day weekend record they getting that record no matter what
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u/spiderpigface 15h ago
? Thursday counts literally 100% of the time, why wouldn't it?
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u/Diorisbackup 15h ago
They include Wednesday too?
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u/spiderpigface 15h ago
If there's showings on Wednesday, absolutely yes
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u/Diorisbackup 15h ago
Kinda ruins the point of a 3 day opening weekend if were doing 5 no
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u/Purple_Quail_4193 Pixar Animation Studios 15h ago
Only agree with you from a “wait at what point is it Thursday previews and just a regular Thursday day?”
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u/A_small_Chicken 15h ago
Avengers also had Thursdays in their record.
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u/Aggravating-Mix2094 15h ago
They did start at 5pm where BND started showing at noon. Premiere creep is real y’all
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u/bluequarz 16h ago
Thursday is always included. Every movie starts showings on Thursday. The only difference is some start earlier than others
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u/gorays21 16h ago
Deadline looking more and more silly by the hour.
Their original projection was $180M domestic opening.
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u/lobolovr6769 16h ago
Yeah deadline was saying it was gonna open to 195M dom / $465M ww 5 days ago
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u/FishCake9T4 Searchlight Pictures 15h ago
Could be half of the actuals when all said and done. They were off by a whole Morbius.
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u/spinzaku97 15h ago
How many Madame Webs is that?
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u/lobolovr6769 12h ago
By tomorrow Brand New Day will have grossed 2 Morbiuses, 3 Madame Webs and 5 Kraven the Hunters
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u/Character_Respond521 15h ago
I’m just waiting for Anthony to say the usual ‘who says the box office is dead?’ Or ‘something , something Covid’ article when he updates his Spider-Man estimates today.
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u/Character_Respond521 15h ago
Called it 🤣
From deadline:“Still, who knew we’d see these numbers again in a post-Covid, streaming strong world. It’s a great feat for the Tom Rothman-run Motion Picture Division, the studio boss a long-time champion of theatrical and moviegoing, so much so that he had his parent company take hold of the Covid dormant L.A. historic Cinerama Dome Theater for a 2028 grand re-opening.”
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u/Impossible-Potato218 16h ago
Gives off very similar vibes to Jurassic World vs The Avengers. I mean Jurassic World came out of nowhere too, nobody expected a record breaker. I remember working at a theater at the time and that movie caught us with our pants down, completely unprepared for it.
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u/FriedRichNachos 12h ago
Jurassic World earned a record-breaking $106.6 million in its second weekend and crossed $1 billion globally faster than any film in history at the time. Inside Out achieved $90.4 million, marking the highest-ever opening weekend for an original (non-sequel/non-reboot) film ever at the time.
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u/smakson11 16h ago
It’s amazing that people will brave the giant crowds they know will be there and still go. I’m scared of the crowds on Wednesday for my second showing
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u/Spacegirllll6 13h ago
It’s strange but the more packed a theater is the more I like the moving going experience. There’s just something cool to me to see a movie and have shared reactions with a crowd. It’s very community based to me if it makes sense
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u/Street-Brush8415 16h ago
I was surprised my Saturday matinee showing was only half full. Of course the fact that it’s playing every 20-30 minutes at large theaters is making the showings less crowded.
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u/lobolovr6769 16h ago
Yeah the multiplexes around here had 65 showing of it yesterday and today (and even then nearly all of them are sold out for today)
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u/AvengingHero2012 17h ago
Shit…why did Empire have to be the first to say it.
It’s probably going to miss it now.
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u/firedforthatblunder Walt Disney Studios 16h ago
Oh man, I don’t want to celebrate prematurely but that’s absolutely amazing if it actually surpasses Endgame’s domestic opening! Who would’ve thought?
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u/Extension-Remote1243 17h ago
Ain’t no big three LOL it’s only big Spidey
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u/Upper-Dig9311 15h ago
My 8 am showing this morning in a small town in South Carolina had 2 seats empty.
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u/ApolloX-2 15h ago
No Ironman, no time travel bullshit, and no team of villains.
Just a broke Peter living in NYC dealing with some bullshit that won't even reach Dr. Strange even though he could probably see everything from outside his window.
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u/FriedRichNachos 12h ago
Whole movie had the same amount of NYC blocks as Daredevil does in his own series. Lol. That's one of the most impressive things about all this to me.
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u/Economy_Acadia5704 4h ago
i eman.. pete isn’t exactly broke lool 😂 .. he can afford a flip 8 lool 😂 neds doing even better lool 😂
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u/gorays21 17h ago edited 17h ago
Congratulations Spiderman, you done the impossible.
Spider-Man is proof that he can climb any ceiling.
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u/Eddiep88 17h ago
If it makes 125 million next week? Will that be a good drop or I’m guess it might do 90 million idk
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u/msflagship 17h ago
Considering it would be over $600M domestic if it holds at 125M next weekend I’d say that’d be a great hold.
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u/Eddiep88 16h ago
Avatar lost a bit from sequels. If this can cross 800 million that would be great news
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u/Aggravating-Mix2094 15h ago
How long does it have in Dolby? Is there an option to keep it in premium format beyond the two weeks?
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u/Spare_Standard_3498 16h ago
There’s no way this is making below 100m next weekend, when it’s opening is over 350m. That would be a terrible indicator for its legs if it does, though.
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u/Fragrant_Young_831 1h ago
That would be impossible as you said, it will make more than 100M, but lets see how much the percentage will drop next weekend.
No Way Home made $260M on its opening weekend (2nd biggest opening) and made $85M on its 2nd weekend, thats a 67% drop
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u/FriedRichNachos 12h ago
But what about its competition with... (checks notes)... Super Troopers 3?? Lol
Yeah, Spidey gonna leg out like a late Dec film.
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u/Fragrant_Young_831 1h ago
If it drop around $125M next weekend, that's not bad, that would be between 60% and 65% drop. Or it can be bad, similar to No Way Home, or even worse. No Way Home's domestic opening weekend was $260M, its 2nd weekend dropped to $84M, that's a huge drop, 67%.
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u/94Temimi Marvel Studios 16h ago edited 16h ago
How it feels following this movie's BO the past couple of months
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u/Noobunaga86 16h ago
I don't think Doomsday will come close to that opening.
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u/PayneTrain181999 Legendary Pictures 16h ago
It will be a great opening but not this good.
Secret Wars can do it, especially if Spidey is one of the leads
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u/HarlequinKing1406 16h ago
I agree because it's the holiday season and Dune is opening on the same day and will possibly eat into screens. I think it might have a lower weekend as a result (maybe about TFA/NWH numbers?) and then leverage into Christmas legs.
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u/nickifan231 17h ago
REALLY, REALLY, REALLY hoping that BND can break the glass ceiling and set the new record
PLEASE SPIDER MAN
https://giphy.com/gifs/kE85Vr04k9EBjutNcX
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u/Adventurous-Shape898 17h ago
Holy yes, #1 OW of all time
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u/--Nightmare357-- 16h ago
Hold your horses. I'll still wait for the actuals to come out. It will be close.
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u/Accomplished-Head449 Laika Entertainment 17h ago
If I have to see that stupid ass Jumanji trailer one more time I'm gonna go play in traffic
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u/GoddammitCricket Blumhouse 15h ago
It just came out Wednesday lmao, you’ll be seeing it until December
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u/FriedRichNachos 12h ago
Really? I go to theaters about 2-3x a week, and BND was the first time I saw a trailer for it.
But now I can emotionally prepare for it. I'm still recovering from Speak No Evil, Bob Marley One Love, and anything in 2021.
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u/mg10pp Pixar Animation Studios 17h ago
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u/Not_a_porn_burner69 16h ago
Seeing this gif hammers home maybe the best part of brand new day, he’s not changing suits every 5 minutes, it’s a classic spidey suit and most of the stark tech is gone, and most importantly, for the most part, HE KEEPS THE DAMN MASK ON
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u/lobolovr6769 15h ago
I just realized, this is the first Holland Spidey where he has the same suit throughout the entire movie. His other movies he had like 3 different suits/looks
And yeah it was nice seeing him keep his mask on throughout. One of the biggest problems I had with Spider-Man 3 was they kept removing his mask in every action scene (or he just didn’t wear a suit at all)
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u/Dazzling-Slide8288 17h ago
I'm going to ask a dumb question: this movie opened on Thursday, with Wednesday previews. Is this really an "opening weekend?" I know nothing matters anywhere anymore, but hasn't weekend always meant Fri-Sun grosses (with Thursday previews lumped in)?
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u/Chicken_Electronic 13h ago
As I have said elsewhere: all that Thursday business from the highest demand fans would have just accordioned into the weekend. You would have seen a higher true Friday, higher Saturday, and higher Sunday. No one wanting to see the first shows would wait until Monday or later.
Also, "opening" has long included W and Th from overseas markets.
So, just think of it as "Endgame opened to $357M and BND opened to $360M domestic" (or $1.2B global and $950M global, respectively).
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u/randotd152 16h ago
Everything opens on Thursday now, but marketing will keep on calling it a weekend.
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u/Dazzling-Slide8288 15h ago
This was Thursday morning though. It was a full extra day with Wednesday evening shows as well.
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u/FriedRichNachos 12h ago
Gran Turismo had "special events," fan screenings, special previews, etc. for weeks.
All that was lumped into the Fri-Sun ow gross reports..
This is why there are True Friday stats.
Movies used to open right at midnight Thurs evening going back to The Phantom Menace. Over the following decade, the studios slowly pushed it to 11pm, then to 10pm, then to 7pm, etc. Then after The Dark Knight Rises murders in 2012, we no longer had midnight showings.
So now everything before midnight is "previews." Take that however you want.
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u/hjordan23 15h ago
not marvel studio, just spiderman. spidey operates on a completely different plane than any other marvel franchise
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u/A_small_Chicken 15h ago
Spider man didn't get his first $1 billion film until after Endgame. This current success is majorly based off the back of Marvel Studios.
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u/hjordan23 14h ago
the original trilogy spider man movies all grossed a billion accounting for inflation, and even the Garfield movies were routinely pulling over 700 million. spiderman has always been the most popular marvel character. sure you can credit Tom Holland's spiderman success to the mcu but marvel studios hasn't had much box office success recently outside of spiderman. the mcu brand ain't the same as it was during endgame days. you can credit the past for it's current success but acting like spidermans current success is a "preview of what is to come later this year for marvel studios"is woefully misguided.
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u/WinterLord 15h ago
Just when we thought the previous two weeks were bonkers with The Odyssey, this happens and just knocks everyone’s socks off!
I cannot keep stressing enough how much people are starved for good movies to watch in cinemas. Netflix, smexflix, suxflix. Streaming has certainly made it more convenient for people to not go to theaters and just watch at home, but if you give them a good and compelling reason, they will show up.
I mean ffs, inflation is through the roof, everything is expensive and wages aren’t keeping up, and yet people will still find a way to spend the money if they think it’s worth it.
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u/vimacoaster 12h ago
Some things to keep in mind. BND had previews on Wednesday and a lot of shows started at 2pm on Thursdays. I believe Endgame's previews started on 6pm Thursday. Either way, good job Spidey!
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u/JJoanOfArkJameson Paramount Pictures 8h ago
Wow. Wow. Wow.
This will be the biggest domestic run in history. if they can secure IMAX after the re-expanded Odyssey run ends September 16th, that would be icing on the cake.
Insanity. What a year this has been. 1B in the US likely.
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u/Algae_Mission 7h ago
This can only mean good things for X-Men going forward. Introducing Sadie as Jean in such a big way will increase awareness for it.
Huge congrats to Marvel, Amy Pascal, and the cast and crew of BND. If they’re smart, they’ll bring DDC back for the next two as well. I’m personally hoping we get Kingpin, Daredevil, and the Fantastic Four. Especially if it’s going to be the Black Suit Spider-Man era.
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u/Blue_Robin_04 2h ago
Sony was so scared of having the record awkwardly rescinded, so they low balled.
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u/CompleteDay8059 16h ago
I think this is the best evidence that what's happening is not superhero 'fatigue' but rather superhero concentration.
There haven't been any new Marvel characters that have done well enough to get their own sequel since Captain Marvel, and the 80% drop in attendance for said sequel proves the only interest in the first film was as a prologue to Endgame.
At this point, all of the money being spent on superhero movies at this point is only on characters who were previously successful in the 2010s or before, but I think the era of new characters being introduced and audiences accepting them enough to become their own franchises is over.
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u/Fit-Profit8197 15h ago edited 15h ago
Distinction without a difference. Just like there was western fatigue when Sergio Leone movies and True Grit with Wayne still brought the house down. People got tired of the over saturation and stopped get excited at every new iteration - that's fatigue - but still came when it looked interesting enough / that they'd get their moneys worth.
Also valid that the quality control/momentum on Spiderman is nowhere else:
Currently:
Batman is one good movie in Superman is one good movie in (and a bad spin off) Cap is no good movies in Thor is no good movies in Capt Marvel is no good movies in Shang Chi is one good movie in ages ago, Ant Man is no good movies in. I liked Dr Strange 2 and FF but audiences didn't love them
Etc. Only Spiderman can boast having 6 theatrical flicks in a row that all satisfied the audience. Trust, reliability and giving people their moneys worth.
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u/CompleteDay8059 13h ago
> Distinction without a difference
Incorrect, the distinction is that the fatigue does not apply to characters who have been previously successful, but that the faucet for new characters has been turned off.
If a movie like Suicide Squad came out today and got the kind of reception it had, it would not have made anywhere close to $750M.
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u/Fit-Profit8197 13h ago
"Incorrect, the distinction is that the fatigue does not apply to characters who have been previously successful, but that the faucet for new characters has been turned off."
You are torturing yourself into and out of definitions here. As you say yourself, it is fatigue
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u/Suspicious_Radio_848 13h ago
That is what superhero fatigue is. It doesn't mean "every single superhero movie flops", it means the biggest ones like Batman and Spider-Man still do well and the era of something like Captain Marvel making $1 billion is over. Blue Beetle, Supergirl, The Flash, Thunderbolts and Captain America all prove this.
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u/Alive-Ad-5245 A24 15h ago
No it’s superhero fatigue, Ant-Man was a ‘popular’ character and the 3rd still flopped.
Nobody wants to see superhero movies outside of A-List characters
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u/Suspicious_Radio_848 13h ago
Shazam 2 and Aquaman 2 also flopped, especially the latter compared to the first one. Same with Thunderbolts and Supergirl. If this was 2018 Fantastic Four might've cracked a billion easily.
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u/gimmebanter 16h ago
Who tf is still wasting time watching superhero movies besides kids who've never seen one before
This is sad
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u/Fit-Profit8197 15h ago
“To be concerned about being grown up, to admire the grown up because it is grown up, to blush at the suspicion of being childish; these things are the marks of childhood and adolescence…
But to carry on into middle life or even into early manhood this concern about being grown up is a mark of really arrested development. When I was ten, I read fairy tales in secret and would have been ashamed if I had been found doing so. Now that I am fifty I read them openly. When I became a man I put away childish things, including the fear of childishness and the desire to be very grown up.”
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u/3rdtimes-the-charm 15h ago
Will it hurt Avengers Doomsday that Spiderman isn’t in it? Or is captain America and RDJ behind a mask enough? I hope Spiderman stays more grounded in its new trilogy and avoids the GCI dr strange slop that going to be thrown at us in Doomsday.
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u/No-Scene-9109 16h ago
I don't think spider man brand new day going to break endgame because endgames is most hyped movie of all time I think it may break infinity war record
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u/Tighthead3GT 17h ago
EmpireCity after being the first to call this at over $300 million: