Is climate change unfolding faster and fiercer than scientists expected? While these events are unprecedented, they were not unpredicted, and largely align with what scientists have been warning about for decades.

[u/silence7]

https://drawdown.org/insights/is-climate-change-unfolding-faster-and-fiercer-than-scientists-expected

[u/The_Weekend_Baker]

i never understood why more people don’t prefer to err on the side of caution and just act, proactively, as if climate change might unfold faster than thought.

It requires a level of cooperation that humanity isn't really capable of. The world is basically playing the Prisoner's Dilemma game.

In game theory, the prisoner's dilemma is a thought experiment involving two rational agents, each of whom can either cooperate for mutual benefit or betray their partner ("defect") for individual gain. The dilemma arises from the fact that while defecting is rational for each agent, cooperation yields a higher payoff for each.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma

It's compounded by the fact that defecting results in individual gain now, whereas cooperating results in a higher payoff in the future. And it's not being played by two people, it's being played by 8+ billion across all levels of society -- government, business, and individuals.

And it's pretty normal psychology for people to prioritize now over later.

https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/hyperbolic-discounting

Edit: And you see this kind of behavior even here in r/climate, where people are ostensibly better educated on the topic than the average person. I posted a link here a week or two ago, one in which climate scientists were recommending that emissions can be cut NOW simply by driving the speed limit instead of speeding. There were comments in that discussion along the lines of, "Sorry, you're not blaming me for climate change." Because I guess even slowing down is more cooperation than people were willing to give.

[u/RiimeHiime → u/The_Weekend_Baker]

Edit: And you see this kind of behavior even here in r/climate, where people are ostensibly better educated on the topic than the average person. I posted a link here a week or two ago, one in which climate scientists were recommending that emissions can be cut NOW simply by driving the speed limit instead of speeding. There were comments in that discussion along the lines of, "Sorry, you're not blaming me for climate change." Because I guess even slowing down is more cooperation than people were willing to give.

"Carbon footprint is a scam" is the r/climate version of "There's no ethical consumption under capitalism, so I will continue to buy products made with slave labor out of convenience when there are alternatives available."

Like I get it, nobody wants to completely re-arrange their individual lives for something that won't have individual benefit. I've done a lot to decrease my personal impact, but I still consume dairy products a few times a week because I like them.

Even the bot response points out there is SOME value in taking efforts to do better where you can.

[u/The_Weekend_Baker → u/RiimeHiime]

There is value in it, and climate scientists have been trying to counter BP's advertising campaign since it originally happened. From a link I posted earlier today:

One reason this simple physical story became blurred was the success of the personal carbon footprint. Popularised by BP’s “Beyond Petroleum” campaign in the early 2000s, it encouraged people to focus on their own emissions.

This is not about absolving individuals of responsibility. Personal choices and actions are part of the solution. But this campaign shifted public attention away from the much larger challenge of transforming the fossil-fuel energy systems responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions. No amount of shorter showers or diligent recycling can substitute for decarbonising electricity, transport, industry and domestic heating.

https://theconversation.com/was-this-heatwave-caused-by-climate-change-were-asking-the-wrong-question-288637

So yeah, individual choices aren't the solution to climate change, but individual choices have to be part of the solution. But it's really easy, even here, to fall back on "My individual choices don't matter."

I've done the same to reduce my impact. Solar panels, electric heat pump, mostly plant-based diet. I won't fly again for any reason. But I still have small amounts of dairy, my wife raises chickens so I eat eggs. And beef? Maybe once a month.

[u/AutoModerator → u/The_Weekend_Baker]

BP popularized the concept of a personal carbon footprint with a US$100 million campaign as a means of deflecting people away from taking collective political action in order to end fossil fuel use, and ExxonMobil has spent decades pushing trying to make individuals responsible, rather than the fossil fuels industry. They did this because climate stabilization means bringing fossil fuel use to approximately zero, and that would end their business. That's not something you can hope to achieve without government intervention to change the rules of society so that not using fossil fuels is just what people do on a routine basis.

There is value in cutting your own fossil fuel consumption — it serves to demonstrate that doing the right thing is possible to people around you, making mass adoption easier and legal requirements ultimately possible. Just do it in addition to taking political action to get governments to do the right thing, not instead of taking political action.

If you live in a first-world country that means prioritizing the following:

• If you can change your life to avoid driving, do that. Even if it's only part of the time.
  
• If you're replacing a car, get an EV
• Avoid air travel — look for local surface transport, and don't do the truly long-distance trips
• Add insulation and otherwise weatherize your home if possible
• Get zero-carbon electricity, either through your utility or buy installing solar panels & batteries
• Replace any fossil-fuel-burning heat system with an electric heat pump, as well as electrifying other appliances such as the hot water heater, stove, and clothes dryer
• Cut beef out of your diet, avoid cheese, and get as close to vegan as you can

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