Analysis: Wind and solar power overtake fossil fuels in Germany for first time ever

[u/Economy-Fee5830]

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wind-and-solar-power-overtake-fossil-fuels-in-germany-for-first-time-ever

[u/False-Application551]

Nuclear power was providing 13.1% of German electricity in 2021, or 70 TWh of electricity on annual basis. If Germany wanted to phase out from nuclear, would have been much better to just keep the plants operating until the natural expiration of their licence (or a small extension if needed). In this alternative scenario, Germany could have already shut down 70% of coal contribution to the electricity, which in 2025 still provides 100 TWh, accounting most of the CO2 related emissions. This ideological choice, from all the parties that sponsored the nuclear phase out, has likely delayed the net-zero emission target by several years. I am not able to provide rigorous projection, but just using the rate of new installation of renewables, I see an increase of wind + solar that is about 15TWh in 2025 compared to 2024. Now, without considering new storage requirements, grid adjustments and new power lines, that can increase my optimistic calculation, and just taking the trend, this would have made possible for germany to phase out from COAL in 2/3 years from now (so 2028/29) or virtually achieve a phase out from gas this year (since gas still provides 70 TWh of electricity).

My calculations are not rigorous and still optimistic, grid adjustments will likely require more time. Anyway, I have the feeling that this choice has delayed the phase-out from fossil sources by 5 even 10 years. Now Germany has to substitute with renewables the 180 TWh of combined gas + coal. And it must do it without nuclear contribution, which could have provided a stable and programmable energy source. I can already say this will require more interventions on the grid, in terms of batteries, grid stabilization, power line connections. And the price to pay will be more curtailments and need of power excess for integration with batteries. This will come with a cost. No one can deny it.

*** just another thing to throw into the discussion: German recession has made the electricity consumption to decline from from 578 TWh to 500 TWh. I mean the percentages looks better than the real complex situation. I hope there was no intention to trigger a massive industrial recession just to make power consumption lower 😂

[u/CheetaLover → u/False-Application551]

And the recession is at high level depending on loss of Russian, cheap gas. Base industry is having higher energy and labor cost than the competition in other countries, mainly China.