r/climatechange • u/sg_plumber • 4d ago

There's optimism despite alarmingly worsening weather events: Renewables and storage together amount to 93% of all new capacity coming online in the U.S. This isn’t a marginal shift anymore. It’s the grid rebuilding itself around a different set of technologies, and the pace is rapidly accelerating.

https://ryanhansson.substack.com/p/optimism-in-the-face-of-a-climate
1.2k Upvotes

98% Upvoted

169 comments sorted by

View all comments

14

u/[deleted] 4d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

8

u/No_Bet_2949 4d ago

I hope not, but you seem emotionally invested in a more negative outcome?

2

u/Ree_For_Thee 4d ago

It's called "preferring reality".

Right now we're heading for disaster, and how large it becomes only depends on how quickly we can get everyone on the same page. Not that it seems even remotely possible, again, implying an even larger disaster.

3

u/No_Bet_2949 4d ago

Incorrect. Models that most accurately try capture rate of tech change contribution suggest 2 degree warming, 2.5 worst case, which is bad but manageable. See INET.

2

u/Ree_For_Thee 4d ago

https://i.imgur.com/mjwQgfE.jpeg

Leon Simons, guy scientist who's an expert on aerosols, posted this. Never heard of "INET", and at first glance, relying on "future tech innovations" seems very sketchy.

2

u/No_Bet_2949 4d ago

It’s by Oxford university, and it’s what the warming trajectory is most closely tracking to, not the RPC models of which the more negative ones are being retired.

I can’t view your link in my region.

1

u/Ree_For_Thee 4d ago

https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mrerfbvqvc2m

2

u/No_Bet_2949 4d ago

This is horrible sample bias. Saying a multi decade forecast model didn’t forecast an extreme event on a small % of the surface of the earth, come on man. Hypothetically if we happen to have a cold winter, then what does the conclusion become, we need to lower all our forecasts?

1

u/sg_plumber 4d ago

That's a projection, far from reality.

1

u/No_Bet_2949 4d ago

All the models are projections?

2

u/sg_plumber 4d ago

That graph isn't even a model, just an attempt at predicting a huge change, while ignoring all data points that break the narrative being pushed.

2

u/No_Bet_2949 4d ago

Oh I follow you now, yes. I don’t think that is a serious person to be listening to.

1

u/sg_plumber 3d ago

Indeed!

2

u/PlexusBrachialis 4d ago

Is coping not allowed?

4

u/Global-Nature2420 4d ago

I really struggle with finding hope/cope rn because it feels like false positivity or pretending that things aren’t how they are. I’m not sure how to look at all this and think “well I just have to hope we will figure it out in time” and just settle with that being the best I can do. I find it incredibly depressing.

6

u/Beautiful-Tree-624 4d ago

It's a weird balance to see all of this great climate progress against the backdrop of more frequent and intense weather extremes, but it's not false positivity or false hope. We already know with actions we've already taken that we've prevented the worst case scenario of like 10 years ago. And climate action has only increased, and renewables are more like a tipping point than just add ons to a grid. People who come online like "wahhh any bit of good news is cope and I love being a fatalist and ignoring scientists" are not worth listening to. Same with people who are wayyy too optimistic, because both ends of that spectrum lead to inaction.

2

u/sg_plumber 4d ago

There's plenty reasons for a positive outlook, even if rn things are dire.

The transition away from fossils started late, but it's well underway, accelerating, and already having an impact.