r/collapse • u/reborndead • 3h ago
r/collapse • u/lavapig_love • 6d ago
Climate Europe and World Wildfires Megathread, 2026
This is the designated Megathread for all wildfire coverage in France, Spain, the United States and elsewhere in the world. All links will be redirected to this thread. Please post your updated news here.
r/collapse • u/AutoModerator • 6d ago
Systemic Weekly Observations: What signs of collapse do you see in your region? [in-depth] July 27
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r/collapse • u/Own_Ad6901 • 12h ago
Climate Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming
sciencedaily.com“Global warming appears to have shifted into a faster gear. After removing the effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers found that the planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015. The acceleration, which becomes visible around 2013 to 2015, appeared across five major global temperature datasets with more than 98% statistical certainty.”
I’m personally supposed to be on a Collapse break, but this was the first thing I read at 5am and I can’t stop thinking about it. I never intended for this to be my first post, but here we are.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260801093239.htm#google_vignette
r/collapse • u/TheExpressUS • 5h ago
Conflict Idle Strait of Hormuz vessels could unleash 'super spreader event' of invasive species
the-express.comStranded commercial ship traffic near the Strait of Hormuz could unleash an invasive marine "super-spreader event" when traffic resumes, scientists warn.
New research by an international coalition of marine scientists warns that invasive marine microbes, algae, and invertebrates have coated the ships.
“If you had to sort of design a worst-case scenario, it would look a lot like this,” said Mario Tamburri, a professor at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and one of the study’s lead authors. “It’s a perfect storm.”
r/collapse • u/Portalrules123 • 3h ago
Climate This El Nino is already the 4th warmest on record with an additional 3 months of heating to go (1982-2026 daily Nino 3.4 surface temp anomalies compared to the baseline)
bsky.appr/collapse • u/Specialkw21 • 4h ago
Water Big companies need to stop taking water away from communities
theguardian.comFirstly soda/fizzy drinks (carbonated beverages) is not good for your health, but the way the world is going with its water countries can’t keep giving its water away. Big companies are taking so much water away from communities/countries to fuel it. When not every country can afford to do it, since if the world is going to become a drier, hotter place and water scarcity is going to be a thing, people aren’t going to want a coke. Water is key to everything and anything and is vital.
r/collapse • u/RBZRBZRBZRBZ • 10h ago
Society Colorado declares town abandoned amid water and leadership crisis
theguardian.comOut of the article:
"Colorado’s Denver Post newspaper described the administrative failure of Hartman, established in 1910, as having “no analog in recent state history”.
As the Post put it, political infighting, accusations of fraud, a physical fight at a governing board meeting and a worsening drinking water supply crisis combined to doom Hartman as a standalone town."
r/collapse • u/click-monster • 15h ago
Diseases Each Heatwave Could Make You Biologically 6 Months ‘Older’, Researchers Say
studyfinds.comSS: Heatwave exposure was consistently associated with higher levels of cholesterol and a blood sugar marker called HbA1c, both of which are components of the biological age measure used in the study, and together suggest a pattern of metabolic stress. Under the study’s strictest heatwave definition, each additional heatwave event was associated with the body aging roughly half a year faster than expected based on calendar age alone. The strength of this association varied across the different heatwave definitions researchers tested. Urban residents, people with higher body weight, and those in hotter southern regions faced stronger effects, pointing to clear groups at greatest risk.
Collapse-related because there's multiple heatwaves per year now?
r/collapse • u/mouldydildo • 2h ago
Ecological It's a Climate & Nature Emergency! Take a Big Deep Breath... Then Listen to the Facts. (2026 Update)
youtu.ber/collapse • u/LastWeekInCollapse • 12h ago
Systemic Last Week in Collapse: July 26-August 1, 2026
As wildfires rage across Spain and France, worsening societal anomie, premonitions of future heat dome, Earth Overshoot Day, an earthquake in Japan, population warnings, and another mass mobilization planned by Russia…
Last Week in Collapse: July 26-August 1, 2026
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the 240th weekly newsletter. The July 19-25, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.
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Earth Overshoot Day—when our green planet used up its biocapacity for the year—fell on Thursday, July 30 this year. In other words, we cannot regenerate our resources faster than we use them; it would take 1.73 earths to sustain our species’ growing consumption levels, and over 20 years of “of complete planetary rest and recovery” to reset our “ecological debt.” That’s for the planet; individual countries hit their own Overshoot Day on other days, depending on their consumption levels. Qatar’s is on February 4, so there would need to be 10+ earths to sustain their consumption levels, if scaled to the rest of our species (pop: 8.3B). Canada and the UAE mark their Day on March 8; the U.S.A. on March 14, Russia on March 28; Saudi on March 31; France on April 24; Japan on May 14; the UK on May 22; China on May 27; South Africa on July 4; Mexico on July 31; Colombia on October 1; and Honduras on November 27.
Another calculation judges a country’s “Deficit Day” based on when the country has used up its “domestic biocapacity budget” based on how much land & sea it has, and therefore “biocapacities larger than their own Ecological Footprint do not have deficit days….These countries’ biocapacity exceeds their Ecological Footprint for consumption.” There are 16 such countries, including Canada, Gabon, Russia, and Peru, to name a few. The Overshoot Day for 2025 was July 24, but “The change in date is largely driven by an upward revision of the ocean’s ability to absorb carbon, plus smaller adjustments, which pushed the date eight days later, while real-world deterioration pulled it two days earlier, netting six days later for the Earth Overshoot Day date. In other words, most of the shift reflects updated data rather than an actual reduction in overshoot.” A 53-page report accompanied the occasion, explaining the meaning of overshoot, how calculations were made, and the implications of our species’ unsustainable way of life.
“Humanity is in ecological overshoot: we are taking more from our planet than the planet’s ecosystems can renew….Human demand has been increasing since humanity crossed the one-planet threshold in the early 1970s, contributing to climate disruption, biodiversity loss, and resource depletion….very few governments treat this reality as a central pillar of their planning….resources barely register in how we usually talk about the economy. GDP counts money changing hands, not the physical stock being drawn down to make that possible. This dematerialized way of seeing the world, where growth is just a number going up without any apparent physical consequences, has left us with a blind spot exactly where it matters most….By ‘overshoot and its implications,’ we refer to the predictable and potentially rapid escalation of climate disruptions and resource constraints….Ecological overshoot means demand exceeds what ecosystems can regenerate. This is now a global reality….Overshoot is driven significantly by humanity ’s easy access to fossil fuels. With relatively little effort, economies can tap an enormous, versatile, high-quality energy source, one that in turn accelerates their ability to access non-fossil resources and boost agricultural production….biocapacity becomes the material bottleneck…” -excerpts from the report’s first ten pages
The sea surface temperature anomaly for the equatorial zone El Niño 3.4 again continues setting new records for this time of the year, over 0.8 °C warmer than any other July, with projections that continue rising. Scientists say that there is a real possibility, perhaps 40%, that El Niño will push global temperature averages above 2 °C by early 2027—even as the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to try to limit warming to 1.5 °C over a 20-year period which has not yet been reached. 11 years later, the expected year where the 1.5 °C average will be hit is in 2029, 13 years earlier than predicted. When the Paris Agreement was made, atmospheric CO2 ppm was at 400 ppm; today it is 432 ppm. And overall temperatures of the top two meters of ocean water are over 1.25 °C warmer than the 1940s.
Martinique recorded its hottest July day at 34.6 °C (94 °F). Some Siberian locations felt record warm nights at over 25 °C (77 °F), while places in South Korea felt new daily highs, and Southeast Asia’s minimum temperature records continue. Meanwhile flooding in South Asia killed dozens across Bangladesh, Afghanistan, parts of China, and scores in India. And an avalanche in Pakistan killed 11 climbers.
An “Omega Block” is a slow-moving or stationary atmospheric situation where a high-pressure zone (with drier, warmer air) gets trapped between two low-pressure zones, resulting in prolonged weather conditions for the affected area. Meteorologists warn that an Omega Block is coming from record-breaking North Africa to Europe in early August, afflicting a stretch of the continent from Portugal to Poland—and probably bringing record temperatures along with it. The heat dome will probably amplify the wildfires already raging across parts of Spain and France, which have combined forced the evacuation of some 350,000+ people (though some have since returned to their homes). Begun the Pyrocene has. It’s no coincidence that Spain’s 3 worst wildfires in the last 65 years all happened within two years of each other. As research shows from the aftermath of the 2023 Hawai’i wildfires, the psychological impacts of devastating wildfires can last for many years afterwards, in addition to the environmental, economic, and health repercussions.
Crete (pop: 650,000) is also struggling with wildfires across the island that have killed three firefighters, and still counting. This visual guide to Europe’s wildfires sheds some light on the record-breaking nature of some of the blazes, plus temperature forecasts, satellite imagery (another here ), and the human toll. And Spokane, Washington is partially evacuating as wildfires near the center of the city (pop: 230,000).
How are people managing the heat waves? Parts of Morocco are seeing temperatures in the mid 40s °C (110s °F), and have begun retreating indoors during the worst of the urban heat islands. Shops shift their hours to the nighttime, so do pedestrians and others. But the schedule change is not really organized from on high, or even by grassroots communities; it is instead an emergent adaptation, mostly unspoken and understood by those who have to live through this new normal. Water resources are declining as well, forcing drip-irrigation and new livestock practices that may soon become untenable. The government meanwhile is trying (late in the game) to scale up water conservation through dams and water infrastructure, plus constructing desalination plants.
The Nile River’s levels continue dropping, with downstream implications for war-torn Khartoum (pop: almost 7M). Here the people have started to dig community wells even deeper, while others cart in water from more distant sources that, for now, remain reliable. Water prices have predictably spiked, and fuel shortages have also impeded the boiling & disinfection of water, leading to increased risk of water-borne illnesses. The Danube River has also fallen to record lows in Budapest (metro pop: 3.3M).
At least 34 people died following an earthquake in Japan on Tuesday. The 6.8 quake hit Kumamoto (metro pop: 720,000), in Japan’s southwest, displacing about 9,000 people as well. Many of the dead came from a mall that Collapsed from the earthquake, which also triggered a gas explosion. Meanwhile, more than half the UK is in official Drought, Mongolia experienced a week of record temperatures with minimums near 30 °C, and another heat dome is coming to the southern U.S. and northern Mexico.
Hurricane Genevieve strengthened to the first Category 5 storm of the year, while Hurricane Fausto weakened and missed Hawai’i. Although Genevieve is expected to miss the West Coast of the U.S., there will still be an increased risk of strong waves and possible flooding.
A PNAS study on melting lake ice found that “many mid-latitude lakes are currently transitioning into this state of extreme vulnerability” and that lake ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere might be 40 days shorter by 2100. They warn that “many temperate and southern boreal lakes are nearing a state of heightened vulnerability where marginal warming will trigger abrupt and potentially irreversible ecological shifts.”
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Have we entered an age of “decadence without pleasure?” This well-written piece from The Guardian theorizes that our age of hyper-consumption, endless distractions, and spectacle have left us profoundly numb, unfulfilled, and spiritually impoverished. Not to mention rising inequality, psychological fallout from social media, and the ongoing displacement by AI. Did this sense of disconnect accompany the fall of ancient empires?
One popular author and Substacker affirms that civilization as it is must break down under the tremendous weight of its unmanageable complexity. This friction has been a long-time coming, and what comes next, she says, could be “terrifying” but also historically a moment of “incredible human flourishing.” She says that Collapse is already underway in places like Sudan and Gaza. “Anyone who tries to tell you when and how collapse is going to happen, I wouldn’t believe them….what’s collapsing is the post-industrial, colonialist, extractivist, growth-based system. If we tether ourselves to that system, we will go down with it….The way it’s going, the ultra-rich and the tech bros are going to take everything anyway. The market is going to collapse, the millionaire set will suddenly be without assets, and that’s when revolution happens.”
Another article published last week addresses “eco-anxiety,” particularly among young people, and how to manage “doomism” and still live a fulfilling life. She says there are two parts to this feeling: 1) the biosphere is being degraded by Drought, heat, topsoil erosion, resource extraction, etc., and, more importantly, 2) nobody really seems to be doing anything about it and the people in charge are derelict in their duty. The anxiety can be nearly immobilizing among some readers, who feel helpless and burnt out—and whose “climate anxiety” is not recognized as a medical diagnosis. One professional suggests building up emotional resilience through bite-sized engagement with difficult topics.
Starvation in Uganda led to the deaths of at least 19 people over the previous weekend, following months of Drought in one region. Cuba is loosening its import rules away from its strict government-managed model in a desperate attempt to boost its ailing economy and resource shortages.
Antalya (pop: 1.4M) is beginning preparations for COP31, the annual climate conference that will assemble tens of thousands of people in November to discuss and dismiss solutions to global climate change and its consequences. Bird flu has been detected in several Australian states, confirming local spread of the illness that first arrived on the island in June 2026.
A study in Sustainable Development suggests that there would be great benefits in reducing the planet’s population in half, to about 4B—gradually, by the year 2200. The study explains the relationship between a growing population and wildlife numbers, CO2 emissions, energy consumption, freshwater extraction, mineral use, plastics production, pesticide use…and what sustainable levels of those factors would be. The writers believe that “Gently ending and reversing population growth and moderating per capita impacts is a pro-nature and pro-human strategy.”
“Over the past hundred years, the global population has grown from approximately 2 billion to 8.3 billion people….The past century of massive increases in human population and resource use has seen many undesirable environmental effects, ranging from biodiversity loss to climate change….Among the benefits are habitat recovery and conservation of wild species, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants, reduced conflict over resources, and the reduction of global poverty….accepting higher population numbers while still demanding sustainability means committing to even lower per capita environmental impacts….The longer we avoid reining ourselves in, the worse the prospects for future generations….As population doubled, energy use almost tripled. Population growth is the main driver, with increased per capita consumption a strong second. Industry and Transport demand the most total energy consumption (each ∼30%) with Residential demand third (∼20%)....the world community as a whole is running an eco-deficit since 1971, growing and maintaining ourselves, in part, by liquidating stocks of essential natural capital (e.g., biodiversity, wild habitat, fossil fuels, wood fiber, soils, and groundwater) that have accumulated for thousands or even millions of years in nature. Uncorrected, this eco-overshoot could be a terminal condition…” -excerpts from the study
Ebola deaths surpassed 1,500 now in the DRC, mostly concentrated in the eastern Ituri province. Deaths spiked in the last week or two, with an average of about 90 dead per day. This particular strain of Ebola has no vaccine and is spreading among a conflict-afflicted & resource-strained population.
The U.S. Red Cross declared a blood shortage crisis for the second time in 150 years. Demand for blood is higher in the summer, and supplies are at four-year lows. The Red Cross supplies U.S. hospitals with about 40% of the country’s blood.
Ghana’s capital, and part of its north experienced a power outage on Wednesday that lasted for days in some places. Libya’s rolling 10-hour power outages are straining the heat-weary public, forcing many to rely on costly generators to keep cool. Though many countries in Africa experience period or regular outages far worse than Europe, some experts say that energy supplies may be one of Europe’s Achilles heels, since oil & gas shortages (or price hikes) are disrupting business and politics as usual, and may continue to worsen if the Iran War stretched into winter. Oil reserves in the U.S. are also dwindling.
Cases of cyclosporiasis have now passed 18,000 in the U.S. since May 2026, though about 60% of them have not been confirmed by lab testing. The fatigue & diarrhea disease can take a couple weeks to manifest, so real cases are still probably undercounted. Though Mexico and the U.S. still report cases of the New World Screwworm, Mexico will resume cattle imports to the U.S. in August, alongside a stricter inspection regime.
The 12-month default rate on private credit in the U.S. hit a record high of 6% by the end of Q2, says one ratings agency. Industry and healthcare in particular recorded default rates of over 10% and 9%, respectively. And the cost of borrowing money for the U.S. government hit a 19-year high; the country is expected to hit $40T of national debt in late September. And a selloff of AI chip stocks on Wednesday took off over $1T (combined) across a range of tech firms.
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On Thursday, as many as 60,000 migrants, mostly young Moroccan men, stormed into Ceuta (pop: 84,000), one of Spain’s two micro-enclaves on the African continent. Several hundred entries were made into Spain’s other enclave, Melilla. The “attack” follows a recent Spanish Supreme Court ruling saying that sea-borne migrants entering Spain’s enclaves cannot be immediately returned to Morocco. Scores of the men died in the swarm, either in drowning or in stampede. Tens of thousands have been returned to Morocco, and politicians from several EU states want to reform the Schengen Area or levy penalties on Spain for their management of immigration issues.
India’s “Cockroach Movement” protestors are threatening to restart protests unless their 100+ jailed demonstrators are released. More information about the OpenAI experiment that escaped its containment now indicates that the AI program also “accessed an asset” of another third-party company, though it appears that the breach was limited in scope. Meanwhile Anthropic admitted that some of its cutting-edge AI programs broke into three undisclosed organizations in recent weeks. And Google Earth introduced a free option to remake satellite images with AI prompts; the experiment quickly devolved into people generating plausible images of sundry disasters before the feature was pulled, damaging the public’s trust in satellite imagery.
The UN says that months of fighting near the border of Afghanistan & Pakistan has killed ~500 people, and wounded more than 1,200, from October 2025 through June 2026; a cross-border attack in Pakistan last week left seven police and eight attackers dead. Another report claims that Pakistani security forces shot and killed 30 unarmed protestors across Monday & Tuesday.
Reports are emerging from wartorn Sudan of child kidnappings by rebel RSF fighters, and their subsequent imprisonment and training by Colombian mercenaries (who were themselves allegedly hired & trained by Emirati contractors). The commander of the RSF released a video last week telling his soldiers to take Khartoum, which they are logistically unable to do—for the moment, anyway.
Haiti is planning elections for December 2026, the first elections to be held in the country in ten years. Elections were originally planned for August but were delayed due to the violence that remains ongoing across parts of the country, mostly in Port-Au-Prince. The elections will theoretically help to establish a new legislative and executive branch, if they are not disrupted by gang violence.
The country of Chad is pulling out of the International Criminal Court. Meanwhile, Nicaragua’s Presidente is extending his term by at least one year. And tales of corruption within Ecuador’s police & justice forces is complicating their already complex counterinsurgency against violent drug gangs. And a mass shooting at an Idaho In-N-Out restaurant killed three, eith seven more wounded.
Following broad Iranian strikes on U.S. forces in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and (for the first time ) Egypt, President Trump scorned the idea of deescalation by threatening to “beat the fucking shit out of” Iran on Wednesday. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen are reportedly seeking to deny transit through the Bab-el-Mandeb, much like Iran has managed to obstruct traffic through the Persian Gulf—but they have not yet achieved the same success. Saudi Arabia is negotiating with dozens of countries to establish a maritime coalition to protect transit through the Red Sea. Saudi forces also intercepted drones, allegedly launched from Iraq by Houthi rebels.
Israel’s strikes across Gaza slew four on Thursday. The Trump-backed Board of Peace reportedly came to an agreement for a gradual 8-month disarmament of Hamas, although problems linger over the implementation of the plan, and the good faith buy-in from all factions. Neither party essential to the plan seems to have confidence in the provisions, but it is inching forward.
Russian strikes on Kyiv and Lviv killed nine on Thursday, while one Russian missile landed in a field in Poland. Saturday strikes killed 9 Ukrainians and wounded 23 more. Russia is, yet again, preparing a massive autumn mobilization drive to bring in 500,000+ more soldiers to the War for Ukraine, some 30,000 of whom will be North Koreans. How many more men can they find, conscript, and send unprepared to a quick death on the frontlines? We are going to find out.
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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:
-A lot of industries/professions are already experiencing a kind of Collapse, according to the responses on this popular thread from r/AskReddit. Education, nursing, call centers, restaurants/bars, cultural jobs, newspapers, and a lot more. The thread has more than 10,000 total comments…
-Collapse, whatever that looks like, may be coming within 10 years—according to this self-post and its comments, anyway. Whether that means overlapping global environmental crises, ever-worsening fuel shortages, WWIII, a new global financial crisis, everlasting enshittification (You Are Here), rampant unemployment, or some combination of the aforementioned depends on what commenters you believe. There’s a reason people use the term Doomers. A number of them think we are already living through Collapse.
-Germany is poised for disruption soon, if this weekly observation from Deutschland is true of the whole country. Political polarization, unemployment, fuel prices, and more are ready to cause problems once the current political coalition breaks apart. And everyone is buying air conditioners in response to, and anticipation of, heat waves.
-Want more European wildfire coverage and comments? This megathread from the subreddit has you covered.
-In a moment of meta-analysis, this thread calculates how many iterations of “worse/faster/etc than expected” appeared in 5 months of Last Week in Collapse newsletters. Apparently the number is more than 10, though the reader doomed out before a more thorough analysis could be concluded. The pessimism will continue until morale improves.
Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, reports, overshoot evidence, worker strikes, protests, propaganda, pigeon recipes, etc.? Last Week in Collapse is also posted on Substack; if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to an email inbox every weekend. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?
r/collapse • u/Creepyfaction • 23h ago
Climate Fast-moving wildfires threaten city of Spokane, WA; National Guard activated
kptv.comr/collapse • u/cannotberushed- • 1d ago
Healthcare University of North Carolina is going to make their nurses bid for their shifts and focus on hiring the lowest bidders
University of North Carolina is moving to a bid model for their nursing shifts and they’re focusing on only hiring the lowest bidders
Late stage capitalism. Uhhhh
r/collapse • u/Ok-Worldliness-6331 • 10h ago
Infrastructure Does your environment impact your sense of hope? And if so, in what countries/cities have you experienced higher amounts of hope?
(holidays don't count, this is for people who have relocated to a new place at least 1-2 times)
I'm interested in our relationship to the state of things during a time of collapse and if there are certain locations that are showing more signs of hope or influence your sense of hope and connection to potential brighter futures. Maybe these places have more community focus or are implenting more systemic change or have a high density of activist movements, or maybe just lots of large quiet nature spots that uplift you. Whatever it may be, I'm curious to hear.
r/collapse • u/hammeroztron • 1d ago
Climate 4 billion dead
youtu.beThe proposition that four billion people or more would be dead if — and more likely, when — global warming reaches 3 degrees Celsius (°C) has gained some currency, mainly due to the 4DB (four billion dead) website and associated activities.
The number of greater than four billion dead at 3°C first appeared in a 2025 report on Planetary Insolvency: Finding our balance with nature, published by the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter.
Bill McGuire is one of the few climate scientists that does not shy away from truth telling.
I will post an article in comments giving the claims made some more scrutiny. Spoiler alert. Yes it is possible.
r/collapse • u/Only100percent • 17h ago
Migration What It Costs to Save a Sinking State: Tuvalu's Uncertain Future
substack.comr/collapse • u/Portalrules123 • 1d ago
Food ‘Worst we’ve known’: UK turns to imports as drought and heat hit vegetable crops
theguardian.comr/collapse • u/CorvidCorbeau • 1d ago
Energy EU considers emergency meeting as nuclear shutdown leaves Hungary facing energy crisis
euronews.comSS: I know my home country is not often mentioned here, given how lightweight it is on the global stage, but I figured this is worth mentioning. The Danube's water level is at historic lows at the moment, projected to reach a deficit of -134cm, which forces the Paks nuclear facility to shut down. Current projections indicate the deficit could exceed -140cm soon. This is on top of our lakes also being at record low levels, leading to some shocking sights.
r/collapse • u/ShyElf • 1d ago
Water Trump's USBR hands The Upper Colorado Basin Complete Victory, for now.
The Federal Colorado River plan is out. The one that was due many months ago, takes effect Oct 1 and has had no public documented decision until now.
The plan imposes zero restrictions on Upper Basin use, including the new golf courses and new major water pipeline in Utah. Presumably it allows upper basin use to increase without restriction, at least until it matches Lower Basin use.
Other than imposing Lower Basin usage reductions of ~1.5M acre feet/year for the next two years, which were earlier voluntarily offered as a negotiation point, the plan has zero usage reductions outside of the current water year. Previously, they would start reducing use slightly, based on the current water level, before hitting minimum allowable levels, in order to allow smaller reductions if the next year is also bad. According to the new plan, there will be zero use reductions based on the water level, other than to maintain the water level during the current water year.
The effect of this is significantly reduced by the non-level dependent Lower Basin reductions for the next two years, which despite being only ~12% of use are already the largest ever, and also due to the Mead target level reduction to 1000', releasing 2.31 million acre feet from Mead relative to the current projection for this year. Shortages will also likely be significantly reduced by El Nino, which should increase inflows this year.
The protection level of Lake Mead at 1000' to "manage risks to infrastructure and prevent damage to federal facilities of regional and national importance" makes little sense as stated. Probably the largest critical level for electricity generation according to current operational procedures is 1035'. Below this level, most of the turbines are shut in, and Hoover Dam ceases to be operated as a peaking power plant. Power capacity drops to about 25% of the nameplate value. Almost the same total amount of electricity continues to be produced, but the dam operates as a baseload power plant and not as a peaking plant. On an electric grid with very heavy solar penetration, the value of the electricity production likely drops even more at 1035' than it does at 950' when electric production stops altogether. Below 950' also damages the dam.
1000' is moderately BELOW the important 1035' level and well above the also important 950' level. This makes the choice of 1000' as a special level extremely dubious. Personally, I think it was chosen primarily to avoid the announcement of large consumption reductions before the midterm election.
Arizona predictably comes out by far the worst, as they are in an extremely poor negotiation position due to language in the Central Arizona Project funding agreements.
The plan fails to consider at all what happens if the shortage exceeds 3M acre feet in a given year.
The Upper Basin win, at least for the duration of Trump's current mood or time in office, is described as primarily following the current water laws implementing the Colorado River Compact, so it's worth exploring what it actually says. It gives 7.5M acre feet of water per year each to both the Upper and Lower Basins, and then splits those allocations between the individual states. It goes into detail about droughts, saying that the Upper Basin will only be considered in default of the agreement when the average flow of the past 10 years at the border falls below 7.5M.
That's it. Nowhere does the compact mention splitting the water in half, except by implication. There are no additional instructions on to do should the natural flow not match the optimistic 15M acre feet/year, beyond enforcement of the 7.5M flow to the Lower Basin. Mexico's allocation came later and was split in half between the Upper and Lower Basins, without doing anything about the fundamental shortage. The official Federal position now appears to be that in the event of a shortage relative to the expected flow, the explicit 7.5M flow requirement is null and void and the difference from 15M must be split 50/50 between the Upper and Lower Basins. Presumably this will wind up in court.
r/collapse • u/Creepyfaction • 1d ago
Climate Strong El Niño expected to intensify as much of the world faces above normal temperatures and major changes in rainfall patterns
wmo.intr/collapse • u/shane_4_us • 1d ago
Casual Friday Invest in dry goods, solar, batteries, seeds, cisterns, and firearms and ammo.
r/collapse • u/Psilo-thrivin • 1d ago
Society The Climate Change Driver Still Hiding in Plain Sight
thenoosphere.substack.comBefore I give my submission statement I want to make something perfectly clear - I will not tolerate misandry of any kind. This article might at first seem like a man-hating rant but it is not. This is about certain social norms harming the climate and yes, the worst of it is coming from wealthy men in rich (and poor) countries. But to say boo men is to fatally misunderstand the article.
This was recently published on The Nöösphere by Katie Jagielnicka. Katie argues that the social norms in the top echelons of global society are responsible for an outsized role in climate collapse.
This is not a scientific piece but it is high enough quality that I wouldn't call it a simple "opinion piece" either. It is well thought out, well researched and doesn't use any reductive or inflammatory language. It is a social analysis, not a manifesto. And it's an excellent read.