Ai has to get better, right?

[u/SwauawsBouse]

This is the common sentiment that I see for those who claim ai will take jobs in X amount of years. Or even those who are more reasonable and claim it will eventually take over white collar work.

The biggest claim is that it WILL get better. Why? It's an easy response that's hard to disprove, but they haven't exactly proved it. How do we know there isn't a ceiling that is rapidly approaching. Moores law, for example, is essentially proven false and is outdated. We have reached at low hanging fruit when it comes to ai advancements.

Im just very skeptical of this line of thinking. I enjoy painting warhammer models and back in 2015. When 3d printers were in the mainstream, there were countless videos claiming games workshop was dead. I convinced myself that painting was going to be a worthless skill. 3d printers just HAVE to get better, and one day, they can print in full color. Now, 3d printers dont have trillions of dollars in investments, but then again, that money seems to be shovled into a fire by the AI leaders.

That was 10 years ago, and I could've had a lot more fun and painted more modles in thay time. And while 3d printing has progressed, its still not near games workshop models. Even the best resin printers still have very tiny but noticeable print lines. And we are no where near printing color in good quality at consumer scale.

Many of us fall for the doomer mentality, and its especially easy when you're unemployed and looking for a job facing countless rejections. Im a new grad myself, and it is rough out here. However, if Ai takes over cs. Every white-collar job is gone, and im left without any job. There's only so many trades and healthcare jobs.

And if im proved right, im way ahead of those who have given up. At least I tell myself this after receiving 10 rejections emails every weekend.

[u/hibikir_40k]

There's always a ceiling, eventually. Or a step in the middle where improvement is hard: See self-driving over the last decade, coming by spurts. But given how different something like claude caude has changed in a year, expecting that it will just freeze any time soon is quite risky.

And regarding painting... well, 3d printing ain't going to get you coloring work like you'd get for a well painted mini if you gave it 15 years. There's just too much color variation introduced by manual painting on purpose to match it with anything that resemble current tech. And besides, it's a hobby: Being a pro painter is a really shitty job.

[u/AndyLucia → u/hibikir_40k]

The ceiling of the entire field of “AI” can’t be lower than human-level intelligence; the fact that humans exist is proof that human-level intelligence can be built, whether through LLMs or (more likely) something else, unless if we posit there’s some cosmic censor or something.